Wanted to start a thread for the sprint. Here's my preliminary take:

Pomeroy - I really like connections that come up with a blueprint at the beginning of the year and are able to stick to it. Wolfson has executed his plan perfectly with Pomeroy. This guy has shown that he can handle the requisite wicked pace scenario and will be ready for a lifetime best thanks to Wolfson cocktails.

Attila's Storm - Let me preface this with saying that I do not think Attila will win, but he's the most likely to hit the board. Can handle a fast pace and keeps grinding it out. Should be a bigger stronger version of himself this year than last and got what he needed from his prep. On a more personal note, being a son of Forest Wildcat in the sprint means that he owes me a defacto debt to be bore by all sons of Forest Wildcat entered in the Sprint henceforth until one of them avenges the loss of Wildcat Heir.

Kelly's Landing - Horse for course who will get the same kind of trip he got when he set the track record here. Form seems to have come back around as evidence with his win last out and subsequent rapid works.

Bordonaro - If he gets a nice middle post between 4 - 10 then he might prove unstoppable, reminds me a little of Shake You Down. The only question is that he used to more rest between starts, but appears to have bounced out of his last in good order.

-BB

Commentator--Forgive his last where he blew the start and he's run faster than any of them. Some question of whether he can handle not getting the lead, but works say he's ready and I'm looking for a Precisionist-like performance from a horse used to going longer. For as accomplished as he is, price will be generous.

Bordonaro--He's pretty fast.

Pomeroy--Reggie said it all. Race sets up well for a stalking trip.

Too Much Bling--Firing bullets in SoCal. Fast enough and does not need the lead. Can he handle elders?

War Front--He may not win, but you gotta use him in the tri. He's always there against the best,

**I had Siren Lure first or second until his dull work today. I may yet talk myself back into using him.

Nice Reggie. I also have Pomeroy on top. I've always felt he's had a world of talent but was always slowed down due to injuries. Maybe this is his time.
Steve

No mention of Henny?

Mc Laughlin is another trainer who announced what his goal was and has stuck to the plan. Henny comes into this race primed, he's tough, he's fast and he can sit just off the duel. Someone might run him down but he's going to extremely tough to get by.

Pomeroy, love just love the the steady and sometime brilliant works from the gate. This guy is fast enough to get position and looks ready to pop a big one.

Bordonaro and Thor's Echo threw huge numbers last out. Did they leave their BC race in California? Has to be some regression off that race and there's enough other speed in here to make their respective tasks all the more difficult. Commentator, was looking really hard at this one, he's been tearing up the poly in the morning but his last was really bad, even with missing the break.

Was looking for a dead late closer but don't think Siren Lure nor Nightime Affair fit the bill. Considering Kelly's Landing as one to move forward and who's also 4 of 5 itm at CD.

If....and that's a big if....Henny stubs his toe I like War Front also. Tries everytime. Kelly's Landing completes the tri.

Fyi, for those who like War Front his T-Graph pattern looks very similar to Pleasant Home's, so conceivably a big move forward could be on the horizon.

Forego, regarding me not mentioning HH. I think he's vulnerable from a pace perspective, he'll either have to track the pace from 5-6 lengths back or run much quicker early to stay in touch. In addition, he's thrown 3 very fast races in a row on the T-Graph and with 3yos the numbers say that a regression, a big one, is coming sooner rather than later. With that said there's no denying he's a helluva horse, I'm just trying to beat him.

-BB

I've soured on Siren Lure after the work today also. If you're looking for a closer, why not take a stab at the filly? If I recall correctly, she ran faster than Bling and Pomeroy on the big sprint day down at Calder. Don't see why she can't pick up a piece at a price.

Nola, will have to go back and give Malibu another look, she did pop a huge number at Calder but that one seemed to come from nowhere.

Reg, I hear you about trying to beat the chalk or 2nd choice but I'm inclined to give him his due. I've not used T-graphs so I can't comment on the pattern but here's what I read.

He comes out on out 7/1 and glides home in 1:08 1/5. McLaughlin gives him nearly two months and he comes back in the KB and again draws off (in about a hand ride). He comes back 5 weeks later and sits off a pretty quick pace, against elders, hits the top of the stretch on even terms, puts his head in front, JR gives him two whacks, he accelerates and then his hand ridden in from there in 1:08 flat. He can go as quick as he needs to, take a look at the Champagne from last year, 21 3/5 & 43 3/5.

http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=36092

Let's see, my top pick is out and my second choice worked like a mule yesterday. Maybe I should sit this one out?

Gooch, I can't help but thinking you caught a break with Commentator. A horse with obvious physical problems, running the distance for the first time in his life against a field this tough and comiong off a horrible prep race would have been an underlay at any price.

Siren Lure, on the other hand has the look of the late-running board-hitter that would be playable, so the workout reports are off-putting. Still probably makes it onto a back-up ticket somewhere.

I know that one or two pick three/four tickets will have as many of these as I can sqeeze onto them tied to Ouija Board as a single and the ones which have surveved the first cut include Bordonero, Dubai Escapade, Henny Hughes, Pomeroy and a big bomber. Also haven't entirely dismissed three or four others. I've had better luck using this as a spread race than trying to think I can isolate the winner.

Henny Hughes looks like more contender than stone-cold lock and I'll be hoping to beat him with something longer. I don't see where his pace or speed figures separate him from the pack here.

My 50-1 special is Friendly Island. He has run some competitive numbers against this type as a front-end speed type. It looks like Pletcher has figured out that style won't get it done for him and has worked hard to get him off the pace. Got a little practice in the Forego and a stretch-out jog on the turf for a little eye-wash. Pletcher at a big price? I'll bite-a little.

Story at DRF

http://www.drf.com/news/article/80120.html

"...is doing AWESOME!
Best he's ever been. He's going to win. I think we've got a real shot to win." ~BB.

Best thing TMB might have going for him is he occupies the "SAVER" spot in "LARRY'S PICKS"! LOL. As you know Dell, both BARBARO and BERNARDINI won their respective Triple Crown races following their landing in my "SAVER" spot.

By the way for the 2nd day in a row, one of the "speeds" has been declared out. Dubai Escapade has an inflamation in her ankle so Lewis Michael gets in.

LL

Dell, it's been proven in study after study that horses dislike hip hop, especially when their own names sound like a Too Short song title...:P

Often the speed in this race falls apart. Look at the Sprint in 98 & 2000, I am thinking of wheeling the closers - Nightmare Affair, Siren Lure, Malibu Mint, and Kelly's Landing - with the one speed horse most likely to stay around, only I can't decide who that might be. Any thoughts?

Morgan, very interesting strategy. It's hard not to think that henny will be there, but if you are looking for an alternative to him, you could do worse than War Front. Seems to me like he's the most consistently fast against the best company. Can lay just off the speed, etc.

Hey Badactor -- Right there with ya' --------

Sprint

The sprint has been the least formful of all the cup races.  Favorites have won a very low 23 % of the running, and have finished outside the top four 45% of the time.  The race usually has a big field and faster pace than most horses are capable of dealing with and very few new tops are run. 

 

Henny Hughes is the latest 3-year-old superstar looking to become champion sprinter.  Going back to 1999 and looking at how just the 3 year olds have done.

 

3 YO Sprint T-graph patterns in the Breeders Cup (1999-2005)
Last Race prior to BC	New Top	Pair Prev. Top	2+ Pts Off Top
5+ point top	0	1	2
1-5 point top	1	1	3
pair of previous top (+/-1)	4	2	10
1-5 points off previous top	0	0	4
5+ points off previous top	0	0	1

 

All three of the 3yo’s in this years running will be coming in off paired top.  Historically 37.5% of three year olds were able to repeat there top or better, after a pairing their top in their last prep.  A whopping 25% ran new tops.  That seems to be good news for the three year olds, but normal three year olds aren’t exactly firing negative 3’s so lets look a little deeper. 

 

Breaking down the history of horses coming in off big (-1 or better efforts) seems like a logical place to go.

 

BC Sprint figure after a -1 or better in last prep.
	New Top	Pair Prev. Top	2+ Pts Off Top
3 year olds	0	0	5
4 and up	0	3	15

 

Few, five in fact, three year old came into the sprint off a –1 or better and all five ran poor races in the sprint.  Older horses faired slightly better with 17% of them being able to run a pair of there previous top, but none ran a new top.  So who did run well in the sprint, you ask?   

 

-2 or better in the sprint	2, 1.25, .75, .5, -.5, -2.75	avg = .21
-1 to -1.75	2.5, 2.5, 1.25, -1, -2.5, -3.25, -3.75	avg = -0.75

 

Horses running huge –2 or better in the Srint ran a average of a .21 in the prior race.  Not exactly setting the world on fire.   Interestingly horses running good races in the –1 to –1.75 on average ran about a point faster in there final prep.

 

What’s it mean?   The fast 3 year old are up against it trying to repeat their earlier perfaomances in this race.  Older horses coming in off huge races are also no bargin.   The key seems to be finding the right mix of a fairly fast horse (around the 0 to –1 range) that has been consistant, and reason to belevie he could move forward. 

 

1 Thor's Echo / Corey Nakatani / Doug O'Neill / 10-1

Ran a huge 5 pt top last time in the loss to Bordonaro.  Huge efforts like that are tough to recover from, without in being a huge top.  He’ll likely get shuffled back and buried from the rail, and should bounce to the moon anyway. Pass

 

2 Friendly Island / Ramon Dominguez / Todd A. Pletcher / 30-1

He’s been very constant is whole career, and has been running a competitive –1 level since last fall.  The two ugly numbers on his sheet came on a dead rail trip, and a turf route, which should provide some extra fitness.  He has everything I’m looking for. Speed, consistency, potential to improve, and a big price.  Solid Contender

 

3 Lewis Michael / Rene Douglas / Wayne M. Catalano / 30-1

Only one horse (Precisionist in ’85) has won this without a win at the distance that season.   He hasn’t burnt himself out (0 top, paired up last time), and could have a forward move coming. This is a tough place to try 6f for the first time, and he seems to be better bred for longer races.   Pass

 

4 Henny Hughes / John Velazquez / Kiaran P. McLaughlin / 2-1

Has run lights out in all three races this year.  The lasting being a –3.5 and setting up a probable flop at a short price.  He does get almost a point allowance in the weights, and has proven to be consistent.  Protecting against a bounce and win situation isn’t a terrible idea.  Saver

 

5 Areyoutalkintome / Victor Espinoza / Doug O'Neill / 30-1

Hard knocking and consistent 5yo will be making his 39^th start in the sprint.  He ran a couple nice zero’s last year and a .5 two back.  That kind of fits the mold of the horse who runs his best race here, but after 38 starts it tough tot see him finally making a big forward move.  He’ll probably beat a few bigger names, but is unlikely to hit the board. Pass

 

6 Bordonaro / Patrick Valenzuela / William Spawr / 3-1

A California sprinter has finished in the top two 14 of the last 15 years. The trend will continue if Bordonaro can run his best race.  He looks like the speed of the speed and should make the lead.  17% of older horses we able run big in prior years after coming in off gaudy numbers like his.  He comes back off shorter rest than he is used to, but did that trick well last winter at Hollywood Park.  Consistency and probability of a good trip make him tough to boot.  Playable on top if he creeps up a bit from the 3-1 morning line.

 

7 Nightmare Affair / Edgar Prado / Manuel J. Azpurua / 30-1

With the long run up the CD 6f races are actually about 6 1/4 f.  That, along with the long stretch has me really liking the ones who have shown ability at 6 and 7f.  He’s run fairly consistently and improved every year.  He ran a huge race ( -1.75) last summer before bouncing and disappearing.  He came back at Gulfstream over the winter and quickly got back to the 0’s.  Two of his last three were –1’s and the sire index shows an average of 3/4 pt improvement from 4 to 5.  A –2.5 is within his reach that could be good enough to win with an average trip.  Prado should be able to work that out.  Huge value at anything near the morning line.

 

8 Pomeroy / Eddie Castro / Martin D. Wolfson / 8-1

His last is a dangerously big number and he has been bouncing off all his big efforts the last two years.  With that said he has only run tree races this year and should be fresh coming off eight weeks rest.  If he were a short price, I would be inclined to play against, but at 8-1 he has enough to like to use in the exotics.

 

9 Too Much Bling / Garrett Gomez / Bob Baffert / 10-1

Baffert seems to have caught on that the big sprint efforts take their toll.  He’s given Bling 16 weeks to rest for this, which kind of makes the stats irrelevant.  I like the slow (for Baffert) work the whole month of August after his last.  Kind of let him get the bounce out on the training track.  The 2lb allowance puts his best right there with Henny, and almost Bordonaro.  I doubt he can run one that big, but do expect a good effort.  The outside post probably cost him an shot to win and is best used in the exotics.

 

10 War Front / Jose Santos / H. Allen Jerkens / 12-1

Has held up well despite running 4 big numbers in a three-month span.  This is probably the end of the line.   The outside post is going to make it tough to save any ground without getting into trouble.   Pass.

 

11 Siren Lure / Alex Solis / Arthur Sherman / 10-1

His last two have been very good, the last earning a –1.75.   He’s developed four points since the spring and has a habit of loosing a lot of ground.  Bounce and a bad trip are both very likely and either will keep him off the board. Pass

 

12 Malibu Mint / Kyle Kaenel / James R Chapman / 30-1

No horse has ever won the sprint off a prep at Keeneland.  Don’t see changing this year.  Post doesn’t hurt her like the others as she will be dropping back early.  She will still have to make her way thought a lot of traffic to get to the front, not sure Kyle Kaenel is the guy I want for that job.  She freaked at Calder and slid back her next two.  The last two have been solid, but possibly aided by the kinder polytrack surface.  It’s very unlikely that she will run back to the big Calder number here, and it would take close to that to get a piece.  Pass.

 

13 Attila's Storm / Cornelio Velasquez/  Richard E. Schosberg / 20-1

Ran a big one last year at the mountain, and hasn’t been able to run back to it yet.  Did run a solid -.5 last time out off a long layoff.  Looks like he runs his best when fresh and come in here off just 4 weeks.  Outside post killed any chance of a decent trip.  Not impossible but there are lot of better options.

 

14 Kelly's Landing / Rafael Bejarano / Eddie Kenneally / 20-1

Ran a –2 once last year and once this summer.  Bounced off them both times, but started to turn it around with the win last time at Keeneland.  His best is probably good enough to get a piece here, and he has a pattern of running big ones after showing an improvement to a solid race.  Patton’s usually improve a point as 5yo’s so a –3 is even possible.  I think the will try the, drop back and make a run, style that worked at Keeneland and be one of the few not staggering in the lane.  He’ll lose some ground but could still be good enough to hit the board.

 

Summary ~

Win candidates  ~  Friendly Island, Bordonaro, Nightmare Affair

Possible 2nd or 3rd  ~ Too Much Bling, Kelly's Landing, Pomeroy

Multi race saver Henny Hughes

My top picks in the Sprint:

Henny Hughes

Nighttime Affair

Too Much Bling

Siren Lure

Malibu Mint

I'll just box all five and hope for the best in an otherwise wide open affair.

Just wanted to add to the sprint discussion that those that liked Siren Lure should likely not be overly concerned with that last work.
Sherman said that the jockey used for the work had never been on Siren Lure before and that the jockey did not let him do enough during the first 2 furlongs. According to Sherman, Siren Lure had his ears pricked and was ready to do much more. Sherman also mentioned that in the last 2 furlongs he went much better. It seemed to me that Sherman was happy about how his horse was doing.

Reviewer

The fact that West Coasters do great in this race, I think Siren Lure is a great play in here. He's going to have a great race set up and this one is ready to do more than what he's shown. I like him a lot and will be a single in a P3 with the next two races being wide open IMO.

The fact that Jerkens shipped to Ky to run in this race means a lot to me. He doesn't ship often, and I wouldn't be surprised if all his BC starters were at Belmont. This one might not be fast enough, but he'll be ready.

Reviewer, I appreciate the comment about Siren Lure. I'm back on him after suffering some wavering faith. Good luck!

LOL...Gooch has got the stutters again!

What the hell, Forego. We've got everything else covered in the groiup wager Good luck, mon.