I know he looks a little light on #'s,but if he draws inside and saves ground and some of the better horses draw outside he isn't impossible.
They go three turns at CD and the rails are going to be out some(22feet?).Best horse doesn't have to win here.
TH Approval looks to be a 5yo nearing his peak-similar to BTN from two years ago,he comes home fast and now gets an extra 1/4 mile to work with.Mile and a half won't be his problem.
Big #'s, I like him for all the reasons you mention here. I recollect elk and myself writing about him the day after his final prep, which it was agreed upon was very useful. With a horse like this, he looks hopelessly overmatched to win. However he's, like you said, coming in better than ever before and should improve quite a bit. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him improve 6 lengths over his last race, which at this distance will give him a 113 BSF & will likely leave him in 2nd or 3rd. However, if nobody else shows up to run, which occassionally happens, he will win.
I was looking through the PPs last evening and kept reverting back to Rush Bay. I really can't put my finger on it, but I'm thinking this horse deserves a good look at being in the exotics.
I know he hasn't raced in Grade 1 company and the distance isn't his best......
He does well on the CD turf. Bejarano is a plus. I know nothing of the trainer. The horse has run three well spaced races since July, indicating intent.
I'm having a hard time 'reading' his works.
He's in deep, but he's in, and I will have him in the mix somewhere.
His trainer Tom Amoss is one of the guest commentator's on TVG's works show. Not sure if it helps you at all, but this is what he said.
They asked him if he would be running in the BC if it wasn't at Churchill and he said "probably not." Amoss went to say that Rush Bay would need to run the race of his life to win, but since he loves Churchill they decided to take a shot.
More or less stating the obvious here. Good luck if you decide to use him underneath.
As far as TH Approval, he's a nice horse. He can hit the board, but his chances of winning are quite minimal in my opinion.
Quick...I think Rush Bay is intriguing underneath in tri's or supers. Virtually anyone can run in those spots in this race. I'm a big fan of Tom Amoss, he's a great trainer and gets the most out of his horses. That being said, I don't think that TH Approval or Rush Bay have any shot to win this race. The Powder Puff squad TH Approval has been facing in So. Cal is horrid. Most of the horses he beat are so far over the top it's ridiculous. I think a good portion of them would struggle winning conditional allowance races. I agree that he can run all day, and I think he can hit the board at 20 to 30-1, but I don't believe he has any shot at winning this race. Fact of the matter is that he's not fast enough.
Pete - if you think he will improve 6 lengths and post a 113 BSF then you should CRUSH this horse. A 113 will almost certainly win this race. The only horse who is probably capable of running a number above that is Hurricane Run (who has a lot of questions surrounding him). I don't see a horse whose ran as many times as TH Approval sitting on a lifetime best effort.
If for some reason TH wins I hope we have the winners surrounding him to make a nice donation to the Exceller fun.
Weather looks like it will not be a factor, fast and firm for Saturday is pretty much anticipated.
Big, THA's running style is adaptable so him pressing the pace last out is not something that is totally new. Going back through his PPs look at this race at SA on 2/26, he was a couple of lengths off a 46 3/5 half and 1:10 4/5 6fs.
I really do like his last race for the way he came back at The Tin Man down the stretch. Signals to me he's live, fwiw.
I agree with Pete's assesment, but 6 legths is a lot for a older turf horse to find. Half of that could be vey interesting though. He's run 1.25 the last two times on the graphs. Based on the field somethign like a 0.5 with a decent trip will likely win. At 12 f 6 legths would be 2.5 pts, which put him in -1 teritory which would amost certainly win. Even half that should put him right there.
