Here's my analysis of the races. I do this every year for my buddies who don't follow racing that closely, so some of this may be over simplified for you guys. Good Luck.
JUVENILE FILLIES
1) DREAMING OF ANNA
2) OCTAVE
3) HER MAJESTY
Longshot: BEL AIR BEAUTY
DREAMING OF ANNA comes into this race undefeated. Although her last two have been on turf, we don't think she will have any problem with the
dirt. In her last she defeated colts handily, running the last quarter in a swift 23 seconds flat, earning a 95 Beyer. Although she has been on the lead,
we don't think she is a one dimensional speed freak. This field has come up fairly weak and if she is as good as we think, the race is hers for the
taking. OCTAVE, one of Todd Pletcher's two fillies, has never run a bad race, finishing first or second 4 times. This well bred daughter of Juvenile winner
Unbridleds Song has never raced this far, but we don't think she will have any problem with the distance. HER MAJESTY is a lightly raced daughter
of champion Giants Causeway. She defeated colts in her first race and in her second start she ran a credible 3rd after encountering traffic problems. She
is trained by the dangerous Pat Biancone and any improvement from her last race puts her in the picture. CASH INCLUDED won the Oak Leaf in her
last, but she might have been aided by the speed favoring track. BEL AIR BEAUTY won the Alcibiades at 47/1 in only her second start. She is trained
by Frank Brothers who doesn't put his horses in this type of race unless he feels they belong.
BETTING STRATEGY: If DREAMING OF ANNA is 3/1 or higher she's the play to win. OCTAVE is worth a shot at 8/1. Will be using the others in Pick 3's.
JUVENILE
1) SCAT DADDY
2) CIRCULAR QUAY
3) STORMELLO
Longshot: CP WEST
Pletcher can wind up having two of the top three choices in this race. Although CIRCULAR QUAY will probably be favored, we're going with SCAT DADDY.
He's been very professional in all his wins and in his only loss (to Circular Quay), he had a world of trouble. His last race was very good, as he ran down
No Biz Like Shobiz, who many feel is the top 2 year old in training, even though he's not entered in this race. By top sire and Juvenile winner
Johannesburg, Scat Daddy should have no problem with the distance. He showed his sharpness by turning in the "work on the day" and is ready for
a top effort. CIRCULAR QUAY came into his last race undefeated, but could do no better than second to Great Hunter at 2/5. It was his first race on the
Polytrack and he might not have cared for the surface. He should be flying late, but will have to catch his stablemate to get the money. STORMELLO is one
of 3 California horses who can compete in here (Great Hunter and Principle Secret are the others). He has been working swiftly and he should be a better
price than the other two. CP WEST is a lightly raced son of Came Home, trained by Nick Zito, who just missed in the Futurity. It was only his second
start and any further progression can find him in the picture.
BETTING STRATEGY: SCAT DADDY is the win play at probable odds of 7/2. If STORMELLO is 8/1 or higher he's worth a shot. We will be playing some
of the others in the Pick 3.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
1) MAURALAKANA
2) OUIJA BOARD
3) WAIT A WHILE
Longshot: SATWA QUEEN
We're going with a longshot in here, MAURALAKANA. She was banging heads with Group 1 fillies in Europe and has seemed to improve since being
taken over by Patrick Biancone. She ran a fast closing third to top turf fillies Karen's Caper and Pommes Frittes, and then closed with a rush to get
second to undefeated Vacare in the QE II. She probably should have won that race with a cleaner trip. She has been ultra sharp in her morning workouts
and comes into this race ready to fire her best shot. Whether it's good enough to beat OUIJA BOARD and WAIT A WHILE remains to be seen.
OUIJA BOARD won this race in 2004 and just missed in 2005. She's in top form and has been defeating colts in Europe. She's definitely the horse to
beat, but at the short price we'll try to upset her. WAIT A WHILE has been awesome, winning all of her turf starts by at least 4 lengths, but this represents
a major step up in class. She may be this good, but again at a short price, we'll try to beat her. SATWA QUEEN is a top European who fits with these.
GERMANCE was a top filly in Europe, who has some excuses in her first race in this country (the QE II). She too can be in the mix. This race is so deep,
we haven't even mentioned HONEY RYDER and FILM MAKER, two of the top turf mares in this counrtry, who can also get a piece of the purse.
BETTING STRATEGY: MAURALAKANA can go off at 15/1 in this field; that's how deep it is. We'll play her win and place and box her in exactas with
some of the other choices. Because this race is so deep, we'll use at least 4 or 5 in the Pick 3.
SPRINT
1) POMEROY
2) HENNY HUGHES
3) BORDONARO
Longshot: TOO MUCH BLING
This race is always fun to watch, as the top sprinters go at it the minute the gate opens. It's very rare for a horse to go wire to wire in this race, and
a lot of times, the top speed horses kill each other off. That's why we're taking a shot with POMEROY. Even though he has good speed, he doesn't
have to be on top, and can stalk the pacesetters until the stretch. He has always had a world of talent, and since his training was taken over by Marty
Wolfson, he has been pointed to this race. He had surgery to remove some ankle chips and has come back better than ever. HENNY HUGHES just
might be the freak a lot of people think he is. Even pressing suicidal fractions in his last few races, he has drawn off in the stretch, looking like a
monster in the process. He has never lost at 6 furlongs, but he figures to be pressed by some top quality speed, namely BORDONARO. Bordonaro has
won 5 of his last 6 and is the fastest gun in the West. His last race earned him a Beyer of 119, which is the top figure run in this country all year. He will
however have company on the front end, and it will be interesting to see how he deals with it. TOO MUCH BLING is a blinding fast 3 year old from
Bob Baffert. He has been trained up to this race, not running since July 15. Not that we doubt Mr. Baffert, but we don't think that's any way to prepare
for facing the fastest horses in the country.
BETTING STRATEGY: With HENNY HUGHES the strong favorite and BORDONARO second choice, POMEROY might be 8/1 or higher. At that price, he's
the play to win. Will back him up with HENNY and BORDONARO on top.
MILE
1) GORELLA
2) SLEEPING INDIAN
3) ARAAFA
Longshot: ECHO OF LIGHT
GORELLA has been very high on our list since last year. With a better trip, she could have beaten both Leroy and Artie Schiller in last year's Cup. Since
then she's done nothing wrong. She runs her race every time and it’s usually good enough to win. She does come from way back, so she does need a clean
trip to win, but she should be flying down the stretch. For our money, she's the top turf miler around. The other top choices come from Europe. Since top
Euro miler George Washington has opted for the Classic, it leaves SLEEPING INDIAN and ARAAFA as the top two. Although ARAAFA has the better record
and did actually beat George Washington, the feeling here is that SLEEPING INDIAN is sitting on a big race and will be a much bigger price. Frank Dettori
had his choice of riding LIBRETTIST or ECHO OF LIGHT and chose the latter. That's a sign that Librettist probably isn't at the top of his game. ARAGORN is
the top U.S. miler and would be no surprise, but at the short price, we'll pass. AUSSIE RULES ran a big race in his first start in the States and can compete.
BETTING STRATEGY: GORELLA is the play if she's at least 4/1. We'll also use her in exacta boxes with some of the others. If SLEEPING INDIAN is the
big price we expect (15/1 or more), he's worth a flyer.
DISTAFF
1) PINE ISLAND
2) ROUND POND
3) FLEET INDIAN
Longshot: BALLETTO
PINE ISLAND is a big 3 year old filly who keeps improving each race. She has run fast enough to compete in here and another step forward should
find her in the winners circle. She's trained by Shug McGaughey who won this race last year with Pleasant Home, and he has one of the best records
in Breeeders Cup races. The horse we like at a price is ROUND POND. She was a top filly last year and has yet to find her best stride this year. This
could turn out to be one of the "feel good" stories of this Breeders Cup as she is trained by Michael Matz, trainer of Barbaro. Since being taken over by
Matz she has only run twice. She should definitely improve off of her last race, where she was beaten 7 lengths by FLEET INDIAN. She missed some training
for that race and was having some problems with her shoes. She indicated her fitness with a 5 furlong workout in 59 seconds flat. We feel she sitting on
a big race. FLEET INDIAN is definitely the horse to beat, but at the short price, we'll let her beat us. BALLETTO is training very smartly and should be
in the picture.
BETTING STRATEGY: PINE ISLAND is the play, but we think she might go off shorter than expected. ROUND POND is also the play if she's 20/1, which
she should be.
TURF
1) SCORPION
2) CACIQUE
3) HURRICANE RUN
Longshot: BETTER TALK NOW
SCORPION was a highly regarded 3 year old last year when he was favored in the Arc. He didn't run a lick in that race and was out of action for a year.
He came back in October to run 2nd in a listed race and if he's anywhere near where he was last year, he can compete in here at a decent price.
CACIQUE looks to carry on the tradition of his family. The half brother to Breeders Cup winners Banks Hill and Intercontinental, as well as Breeders Cup
placed Heat Haze and Dansili, he rarely runs a bad race and is the horse to beat along with ENGLISH CHANNEL. HURRICANE RUN was widely
regarded as the top turf horse in the world, but he seems to have gone a bit off form. In addition, this will be his third race in five weeks. BETTER TALK NOW
is the 2004 Breeders Cup winner and this old warrior might have one more good race left in his tank.
BETTING STRATEGY: Hopefully SCORPION will be a good price and he's the play.We'll spread out on the others in the Pick 3.
CLASSIC
1) BERNARDINI
2) SUN KING
3) INVASOR
3) LAVA MAN
Longshot: DAVID JUNIOR
There are a lot of BERNARDINI bashers out there, but we're not one of them. This horse continues to impress. Granted he's never been hooked before, but
any horse who is running 115 Beyers in a gallop, should be able to turn up the heat a little is pressured. Look for him to sit pretty and explode in the
stretch. SUN KING is a bit of a sentimental pick, but he has been right there in his last few races. The 1 1/4 miles is probably not his best game, but
with his new running style he should be able to rally up to get a piece of the purse. LAVA MAN and INVASOR are the top older horses in the country, but
both have chinks in their armor. INVASOR was sick and forced to miss a race and has been trained up to this race. Not the way to go, facing Bernardini.
LAVA MAN has not been able to translate his form outside of California and until he does, he is suspect. DAVID JUNIOR is a top class European who
will like the distance. If he can translate his form to dirt, he can be in the mix. GEORGE WASHINGTON is a top class miler, but the feeling here is that
the switch to dirt and the distance will be too much for him to handle. PREMIUM TAP is training superbly and is the sleeper in here.
BETTING STRATEGY: Not much value with Bernardini, who might be a single in the Pick 3 and 4.
Nice rundown, Steve. I've got mine done too, all 9 pages of it. We have some common thoughts on some of these but certainly not all of them. That's what makes it great. Good luck with your strategies Saturday.
Thanks for sharing! Interesting reading and as always, agree with some and looking elsewhere on others. As Big Daddy likes to say, if it ain't me I hope it's you! And speaking of the Big D, where are you Sean?
Larry, if you're distributing you Intelligent Guide again would love to receive a copy.
Nice rundown. I think Gorella is up against it in the Mile though. She's never beaten the boys in America and her last race was a toughie. As for her race in the Mile last year, keep in mind that Leroi had shoe issues, Whipper had a worst trip than she did, and Artie was on top of his game. Additionally, how good was Divine Proportions who beat Gorella like a drum in Europe before she was retired and Goreall came across the pond. This is the BC Mile, where the trip, I repeat, THE TRIP, wins the race more often than not. Look for Araaafa to get the trip. Keep in mind this is the capper than gave out Silic in July of 1999 and War Chant the week after the Kentucky Derby in 2000. Don't ask me where I been since. Peace. CB.
Thanks for all the kind words. It's fun to put out the picks, but it's also like wearing your heart on your sleeve. If you have a few winners you look good, but if not, you're a bum. I'll take my chances. By the way Croix Boy, it is all about the trip, but who can really anticipate who's going to have the best trip. A lot is racing luck and there's nothing you can do about it. Also Croix Boy, please elaborate on why you like Bel Air Beauty; I'm interested. Finally, Larry, shoot me a copy of your picks to slevinson@palisadesmedical.org.
Thanks
Steve
Fillies: Quick Little Miss. She is my bomb of the day. Last race she was wide & wide, and while beaten 7Ls she didn't lose ground in the stretch and was striding out nicely. She's worked beautifully since, 8 days after the Oak Leaf she’s back on the track going 5f in 59 n/c 2nd fastest work of the day, a 1 mile stamina builder, followed by another 7f stamina builder, and then a bullet 5f 58 3/5 work. This gal is cranked, the race should set up for a late kick and I respect Stute. I think that she will benefit from moving "East" much like Farda Amiga did sevreal years ago when she won the Kentucky Oaks.
Her Majesty (ML 10-1), 1st time Lasix, blinkers on, ran a really good race last out breaking from the 13 post, two turn experience, distance not a problem and the 58 3/5 work to tighten her up.
Octave (ML 6-1) , comes into this race off a nice run in the Matron. She did benefit from a rail trip saving ground and should get a similar trip in here. Pletcher & Gomez, not a bad combination
Cotton Blossom (ML 10-1): Pletcher & JR, ran a bang up race last out pressing from the 11 post on the Keeneland poly which did not favor speed and pressers at all. Looks to have the ability to lay close and should be prominent in the stretch.
Colts: Scat Daddy (ML 4-1), once beaten colt who had an excuse in that loss to the ML favorite Circular Quay. Won the Champagne in very professional fashion and eased by NoBiz without too much effort. The latter if he were here would be one of the favorites. Lays mid-pack and should be right there at the end.
Circular Quay (ML 5-2), weird race his last, didn’t seem to care for the poly but still showed his class battling to get up for the place. Could be well back early and make the one run, a little worried about the traffic in front of him. 2 for 2 at CD, must respect.
Stormello (ML 6-1), comes in off his Norfolk win where we tracked and pounced on Principle Secret. No reason not to get a similar trip in here, not sure about the top spot given his trainer is a woeful 1 for 21 next time out off a win.
Great Hunter (ML 9-2), got the trip last time out and like a good horse does he took advantage of it. Steady forward progression, a mid-pack stalker who if he works out a trip can be in the mix at the end.
Turf: Ouija Board (ML 8-5), hard to get past this gal. 6 of 8 lifetime against her own, sits 4th or 5th and as long as she doesn’t hit traffic takes down the top prize.
Wait A While (ML 3-1) 3yo filly who’s 4 for 4 on the turf, who should be sitting just off Dancing Edie and My Typhoon, gets the jump on the field at the top of the stretch, opens up by 2 or 3 then see if Ouija can run her down.
Honey Ryder (ML 4-1), perhaps a bit slow but she’s 5 for 6 lifetime at the distance and she’s gutsy. If she’s anywhere close at the end it will be a battle. Split horses last out and absolutely would not let Film Maker by her in the last 70 yards to the wire.
Film Maker (ML 6-1), 6 yo mare is consistent as they come. 22 of 26 lifetime in the money and a must use in any exotic ticket.
Sprint: Henny Hughes (ML 2-1), comes into this race battle tested yet not battle worn. He's been dominating in every sense and his last against elders just solidified that in my view. Questions about whether he can withstand the early pace he’ll be up against, questions about his pattern and too many big races in a row for a 3 yo, as much as I dislike chalk he’s been impressive, impressive, impressive.
Pomeroy (ML 8-1), has been up against some tough horses, can sit or go with the pace, has been drilling bullets out of the gate and comes into this race primed for a big effort.
War Front (ML 12-1), bullet drill for this, another who can sit quite close and where post 10 is a concern he did break from the 11 hole in the Forego and run a 3 wide race still taking down the place spot.
Kelly's Landing (ML 20-1), forgot this one earlier, 4 of 5 itm at CD, looks to be cycling back to a big number, has run lights out here before and should be flying late.
Mile: Araafa (ML 9-2), comes in here off a game 2nd to arguably the best miler in the world. Should get an excellent trip from the 3 post, 1st Lasix too.
Miesque’s Approval (ML 10-1), the outside post helps this guy I feel. His last he was mired in traffic much of the race and never really got a chance to run. Castro should be able to find a nice spot outside to slot him into and expect to be prominent very close to the wire.
Gorella (ML 4-1), Biancone & Leparoux have been practicing all year for this race. The 12 post helps as she takes back and circles wide as they enter the stretch and will be coming late in the middle of the track.
Super Frolic (ML 50-1), the board crasher? $50Gs to enter, hasn’t been on the turf in two years, shows no works over the sod, new trainer/new ownership(?),
Last year ran 4th in the Classic at 69-1 after going to his knees and kissing the dirt at the start. Everyone should have $2 WPS on him for the helluva it!
Distaff: Fleet Indian, Pine Island, Lemons Forever, Round Pound – don’t like this race at all.
Turf: Hurricane Run (ML 3-1), Odd path to this race, concern about the declining numbers, last out not that inspiring or was it just a prep for this? Went to the front and while he’s done that in the past I wouldn’t say it’s his best style. Fabre has been too quiet and too self-effacing, Soumillon is back on who knows the horse well 4 of 5 times he’s visited the winner’s circle when on his back. Sits a nice trip and shows his class at the wire.
Better Talk Now (ML 12-1), the old guy is still competitive and looks to be cycling up to a big race. Will he get the pace he needs? Graham looks to have sharpened him up with a two 4f works which if memory serves is not typical. Not worried about the hoopla over his last work which was roundly criticized.
T.H. Approval (ML 15-1), needs to step up here and his last while not totally out of character was a good race, like the way he came again down the stretch and it wasn’t like The Tin Man was in a hand ride. Reverts back to his closing style here and can hit the board.
Red Rocks (ML 10-1), 3 yo who’s not shown much improvement throughout the year yet intrigues. Last out was a total reversal of running style going 1 ¾ mile. Prep? Prep? Prep?
Classic: Bernardini (ML Even), could be all that though has never faced a field this large. He either dominates as he has or finishes off the board. A lot of interesting pace scenarios in here and from his post he could get into trouble. Have to use but one set of tickets will be void of him.
Premium Tap (ML 30-1), expect a ground saving trip and hope he can squeeze through a hole on the rail. His last was visually impressive, after Kent gave him the go to try and squeeze through a hole that closed and almost put them both into the ground, Premium Tap is gathered, re-rallies to put himself back into the race and then is wrapped up late still only beaten a little less than 2Ls.
Giacomo (ML 30-1), no joke. His run in the Goodwood should set him up here to be closing at the end. Mikey gets his preferred post postion (out wide) that should allow him to find a comfortable spot towards the rear without worrying about getting trapped near the rail. A win (yes that win) and a third at the distance.
Lawyer Ron (ML 20-1), my Derby choice who came out of that race injured. Pval up so we know where this one is going to be, still he could surprise if Lava Man and others sit back a bit because they’re looking for Bernardini.
David Junior (ML 10-1), another Pleasant Tap who should take to the dirt though I am very concerned about the time away, this is not the turf.
That’s it, good luck to all and may they all come back safely.
Forego
This message has been edited by Forego on Nov 3, 2006 11:58 AM
Steve, excellent analysis. Good luck to you tomorrow bud.
Jerry, with the late addition of Her Majesty on my tickets, you and I see the Juvy Fillies eerily similar (I'm also using Satulagi). Maybe it's the Jersey water. Good luck to you tomorrow.
Decided to check in from work and saw a couple requests. It's on the way. BTW, Kathleen, I hope I have another "Singletary" on the card too! Malibu Mint would fit the bill nicely and/or Satulagi as bomber top picks! Good luck tomorrow.
Great minds right? LOL, has to be the water! Good Luck to you as well and if we're right about the Fillies it would be a heck of a nice way to start the day!!!
