Thanks for the opportunity, Hooper. I still owe you that Albany C.C. round. Maybe next year.
What do you think about this guys (and Robin)? 2x2x2x4 is obviously the formula for a $32.00 play unless you are confident about a single or two. We've likely drawn the more chalky of the 2 pick 4's so singling is certainly a possiblity. Anyone have strong opinions in one or more of these legs? I just want to get the dialogue started. Chime in whenever you are ready.
I see we were basically posting simultaneously, Jeff. You like an interesting mix and get a couple of those price plays home and maybe this pick 4 isn't so chalky! Let's see what the others have to suggest.
I think we need to single Bernardini, unless you want to swing for the fences. Just based on my perception of these races, I'd go 4 x 4 x 2 x 1. The Mile and Distaff seem the most contentious of the 4 races. For the Mile I'd put in Ad Valorem, Araafa, Badge of Silver and Gorella. Distaff, I'd use Pine Island, Spun Sugar, Happy Ticket and Baletto. In the Turf I'd use Scorpion and English Channel. Not sure I'll be able to weigh in again, so someone will need to put together a ticket for the team using the posts as a guide.
I really think Rob Roy is sitting on a big effort turning back from 10f to a mile. He looks like a miler on paper, so his close over Hurricane Run at 10f shows me that he's really sharp.
Gorella - nothing bad to say about this hard hitting mare. Unlucky at LS last Cup. I'm not sure she's quite good enough, but if she can get the jump on some of these, she can be there late.
Aussie Rules - did he leave his best effort at Keeneland? If not, is this War Chant part 2? That was one sick close at Kee.
Can't leave Araafa off a ticket here. Might be the best Euro miler in the race with George Washington watching from his barn.
What do you do with Badge Of Silver in here? Frankel off 10+ months? Having his horses ready for G1s on the grass off a big layoff is what he does. Pacesetter at a big price here.
Rob Roy
Gorella
Aussie Rules
Araafa
Badge Of Silver
8th - Distaff.
Round Pond, Healthy Addiction, Spun Sugar, Fleet Indian, Bagdharia, Pool Land, Bushfire, Happy Ticket. Every single one of these have their best races on or near the pace at 1 1/16. Nobody steals this one and they'll all be outkicked. Toss 'em all for the win.
This leaves Pine Island, Sharp Lisa, Lemons Forever, Hollywood Story, Asi Siempre, Balletto.
Any of these could clunk up to win. Balletto doesn't seem to want to pass anyone late, so I wouldn't use her on top. Lemons Forever needs everything to really fall apart, including the closers. Same for Sharp Lisa. Hollywood Story has clunked off a fast pace before. I like the 3yo Pine Island, even though she's such a grinder and I know she will not be able to keep up with Asi Siempre...if Asi can handle a true dirt track.
Asi Siempre
Pine Island
(any of the other 4 if another is needed....Hollywood Story, Balletto, LF, SL, in that order).
9th - Turf.
There's no real pace in here and the possible pacesetters aren't about to steal this one. Gotta go to the best closer and it's not one of ours. One of the 3 Euros have to get it done here.
Scorpion
Hurricane Run
Red Rocks
10th - Classic.
Any pick other than Bernardini is simply a price play and a prayer. Someone's going to clunk up for second. One of the two Euros? Giacomo, who should be Wiki's definition for "clunk up closer" Invasor? They're my behind horses if I'm playing this race.
Bernardini
======================
5x2x3x1 = 30 combinations.
Rob Roy
Gorella
Aussie Rules
Araafa
Badge Of Silver
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Asi Siempre
Pine Island
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Scorpion
Hurricane Run
Red Rocks
---------------------
Bernardini
If we single Bernardini, we have to figure out the 32 combos behind him. From what's been posted (including mine), we have over 200 combinations. Glad I'm not the captain here.
Waiting on Robin's input! I think it looks safe that we're going solo on Bernardini. Scorpion and Gorella have enough say that they should be on the ticket. I think Rob Roy and Asi Siempre have huge chances to win at big prices, so if there's room, I'd really like them on....
Alright...no I didn't fall asleep at the keyboard. I'll put out my picks with just a few quick comments.
MILE
3 Araafa - hot
6 Echo Of Light - hate the jock...love the horse
9 Rob Roy - has a shot ala propro's remarks
10 Miesque's Approval - Florida, Wolfson shipper, closer
12 Gorella - think the girl's still got it
DISTAFF
I'm pretty lost here but, based on what I've read.....
2 Pine Island - must admit she DOES stand out
7 Fleet Indian
13 Happy Ticket
TURF
I'm losing my mind trying to narrow this down.....
2 TH Approval - I like any horse who wins 14f races
4 Scorpion - good horse with a price
6 Cacique - Prado's got a good clock in his head to move him at the right time for 12f
7 Hurricane Run - Hope he's still got the right stuff
10 English Channel - As good as any and gets his rabbit
CLASSIC
3 Bernardini - A mindblowing 3yo freak
8 Lava Man - You may think I'm nuts, but this super CA horse at 5 years of age could "speak" Bernie into submission. An older horse CAN pull an 'alpha male' horse thing on a younger one.
Seeing what the general consensus is, I will add my final choices to the mix. I don't mind if we single Bernardini. I don't know who gets to make the final choice here, but I am on board with whatever we come up with. Good Luck to all!!!
Nice work guys & gal! This is as good a mix as any but I'm hoping lightning doesn't strike twice in the sense that I think our ticket missed 2 years back when Singletary was left off the ticket. On my own personal play I'll be including Libretist due to my "feel" for the MILE race this decade. Not as big a price as Singletary or Domedriver but Libretist is every bit as dangerous despite the post draw. Bottom line, I'm rooting for Hooper's generosity to "cash for the cause". Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Invasor? They're my behind horses if I'm playing this race.