Distaff
Running out of time, so the rest of these will be a bit shorter.
The pace should be interesting, seems to be a bunch that are comfortable making the lead or pressing just off. A couple will probably be eliminated in the first turn by getting hung wide.
1 Round Pond / Edgar Prado / Michael R. Matz / 15-1
Ran a new top (.5) in the slop two back, then bounced. She’s had ample time to recover and should run back her top, or possible break though to a new one. Her sire throws late bloomers and her top this year has not been a huge move forward. Her speed and the 1 post should insure a good trip at least around the first turn. A bit slow but has potential at a nice price. Usable in the Exotics.
2 Pine Island / Javier Castellano / Claude R. McGaughey III / 5-1
The Phipps operations just keeps cranking out top class fillies. Her top is slower than some of the others, but she gets about half a point in weight allowance. A small move forward and she is right in the thick of this. Not huge value at 5-1, but a solid contender.
3 Healthy Addiction / Victor Espinoza / John W. Sadler / 10-1
Bore out while running a big new top two races ago, she has had time now to recover, but at 5 it’s hard to see her running another big top that she would need to get involved here. Pass
4 Sharp Lisa / Patrick Valenzuela / Doug O'Neill / 50-1
I really liked her as a 2yo and she has been burning my money ever since. Still has not broke through that 2yo top and no reason to think she will now. Pass
5 Lemons Forever / Mark Guidry / Dallas Stewart / 30-1
Ran a decent number winning the Kentucky Oaks over this strip, but has been going backwards since. She would have to improve a lot to get close to here. Pass
6 Spun Sugar / Mike Luzzi / Todd A. Pletcher / 10-1
She has run two –1’s and bore out both times, both were also followed by very poor races. She will likely have to run better than the –1 to get a piece and I can see her doing it chasing a hot pace. Pass
7 Fleet Indian / Jose Santos / Todd A. Pletcher / 8-5
By far the fastest top of any of these, but her recent races have been in a range that is no faster than 4 or 5 others. She has also taken advantage of small fields and slow paces. Could certainly win, but looks vulnerable. I’ll include he in the exotics, but not on top.
8 Baghdaria / Rafael Bejarano / Thomas M. Amoss / 30-1
Nice 3yo filly, but in over her head here. She has already developed a lot off her 2yo numbers and a lot this year. She would need a big new top to get close, and that looks very unlikely. Pass
9 Pool Land / John Velazquez / Todd A. Pletcher / 10-1
Ran a negative 2.25 this spring at Keeneland and then ran a couple poor ones. Her last was back to a -.5 and she has had plenty of time off since. She fresh and only need to get back to her top to win. Solid contender at a square price.
10 Hollywood Story / David / Flores John A. Shirreffs / 20-1
How in the world did she make a million dollars? Her best race is a 2.5 and there is no reason to think she will be finding the extra eight lengths she needs to get a check here. Pass.
11 Bushfire / Alex Solis / Eddie Kenneally / 30-1
Ran a big one for a spring 3yo at Keeneland and hasn’t been the same since. The last one was really bad and she had plenty of time off for that one. Very doubtful she could run her best, which is to slow anyway. Pass
12 Asi Siempre / Julien Leparoux / Patrick L. Biancone / 15-1
Former turfer is taking a shot after a nice polytrack win. Sometimes the slowest horse in the race angle works, not my idea of a good bet for the BC though. Pass
13 Happy Ticket / Garrett Gomez / Andy Leggio / 12-1
She didn’t get any favors by the draw. While the outside post has been bad new in the distaff, plenty of horses have run well in the Juvy (8.5f and shorter run to the turn) races. So I don’t think it’s a good idea to rule her or Balletto out. She got stopped cold in the stretch last time. Her last few prior to that were good but not great. She could be circling back to her best, which would give her some room for error with the trip. She is going to have to get out of the gate clean though. Solid contender and good value at 12-1
14 Balletto (UAE) / Corey Nakatani / Tom Albertrani / 6-1
Was a pretty good two year old then disappeared at 3. She came back running as a four year old, getting down to a –1. She bounced a bit while going longer than she seems to what. Last race was right back to the –1. Could go either way from here. She’s fast enough to be a contender at her best, but not great value at 6-1. Playable in the exotics.
Summary ~
Win candidates ~ Happy Ticket, Pool Land, Pine Island
Possible 2nd or 3rd ~ Balletto, Round Pond, Fleet Indian 