Turf

Older turf horses are the most constant of all racehorses, and this race has been no different.  68% of the entrants the last 7 years coming in off a prep where they paired a previous top.  Almost half of those ran another pair or better with 13% running new tops in the Turf.  No horses have run new tops here after running more than a point off a previous top.  Though 6 of the 17 who tried were able to get back to there best. With the three turns and closely matched field getting a good trip will be the key to winning the race.

 

1 Go Deputy / Olivier Peslier / Todd A. Pletcher / 6-1

Stepped up to run huge in his last two.  Both were 0.5’s.  Coming back on two weeks rest is a concern, but he is a definite exotics player here.

 

2 T. H. Approval / Alex Solis / Eduardo Inda / 15-1

Loved his last race as a prep for this.  It paired his top of 1.25, but he did it pressing the pace.  That has not been his customary style.  That race should really have him cranked and showed the versatility it may take if the pace gets too slow.  Solid Contender at a big price.

 

3 Icy Atlantic / Mike Luzzi / Todd A. Pletcher / 30-1

Entered to set the pace up for his stable mate English Cannel.  Will lead them ass far as he can. Pass

 

4 Scorpion (IRE) / Mick Kinane / Aidan P. O'Brien / 6-1

He wasn’t very fast last year, and while he could improve off his slow comeback try it is doubtful he could improve enough to get any piece of this.  Pass

 

5 Rush Bay / Rafael Bejarano / Thomas M. Amoss / 20-1

Has run some solid figs this year, and has a solid pattern.  Could have a small forward move in him, which would be enough to pick up a check.  Interesting long shot for the exotics.

 

6 Cacique (IRE) / Edgar Prado / Robert J. Franke /  4-1

Two of his last three were 0.5’s another will be enough to win with a good trip.  A small forward move is possible since he has only improved a point off his 4 yo numbers.  Solid Contender

 

7 Hurricane Run (IRE) / Christophe Soumillon / Andre Fabre / 3-1

Ran a big one his first time out this year, but the figs have gotten worse as the campaign has gone on and the races have gotten closer together.  The fact that he’s here has me questioning tossing him completely.  Would have been a lot easier to make up some excuse and retire him with his name untarnished.  Sporting of the to take a shot.  I’ll include underneath out of respect for the connections, but 3-1 is a rotten price compared to his actual chances.

 

8 Better Talk Now / Ramon Dominguez / H. Graham Motion / 12-1

Ran a 0.25 to win this two years ago, but has been running in the 2 range since.  It’s possible he could freak again, but it looks doubtful.  Pass.

 

9 Red Rocks (IRE) / Frankie Dettori / Brian Joseph Meehan / 10-1

I think he is here to watch his Aunt My Typhoon win the Filly and Mare Turf.  Even with the weight allowance he is just two slow to run with these. Pass

 

10 English Channel / John Velazquez / Todd A. Pletcher / 7-2

Outside post really hurt him.  He wants to pull and have a target ( Icy Atlantic) to run at.  From post 10 that means he will probably be 2-3 wide around all three turns.  No one in here can afford to give that kind of ground and win.  I’ll use him underneath but not on top.

 

11 Silverfoot / Mark Guidry / Dallas Stewart / 30-1

He ran a couple figs that would be competitive here last summer, but his races this year have been well off them.  He would need to turn it around in a big was to get a piece of this.  That will be a tall order from post 11. Pass

 

Summary ~

Win candidates  ~  T. H. Approval, Cacique

Possible 2nd or 3rd  ~ Go Deputy, Rush Bay, Hurricane Run, English Channel

The turf is probably the easiest BC race to handicap. It's all about class and handling the 1 1/2 distance. My late, top picks are:

Go Deputy, a lightly raced, older horse, finally reaching the top of his game.

Scorpion, will need to improve but the addtion of lasix, and expected development as a 4 yo makes him a top threat.

Hurrican Run, loves the distance and is the obvious class.

Red Rocks, best of the 3 y.o.s, expected to compete against elders first time may be as good as Rail Link, winner of the Arc. Wouldn't surprise.

IMO Hurricane Run must be opposed ~ he has a similar profile as his sire Montjeu in that he was brilliant throughout his 3yo season and early into his 4yo campaign but is now looking patchy and less keen on competition; he looks ready to spit the dummy out and I'll take him on. Scorpion is very interesting as long as he can utilise his stamina for this trip. He's underrated here and will improve for medication.