Classic
1 Brother Derek / Alex Solis / Dan Hendricks / 30-1
His sire throws fast 2yos that don’t develop much and that looks to be exactly what Brother Derek is. He has gotten about a point and a half faster, bet even with the 4lb allowance it’s far from good enough here. Pass.
2 Premium Tap / Edgar Prado / John C. Kimmel / 30-1
Was a fast 2 year old by a sire of late developers, had injury problems at 3 and really started doing some running this summer as a 4yo. Looked like much the best last time before checking hard and almost falling. He managed to regain him momentum surprisingly well and only miss by a length and a half. Looks to be in prime shape and should run back to his top again. That could be good enough to beat everyone except Bernardini or David Junior if they fire. Good value in the exotics at 30-1. Maybe even playable in the pick 3.
3 Bernardini / Javier Castellano / Tom Albertrani / Even
Visually he has been very impressive, while beating up on small fields. Not sold that he is the second coming, but he is the most likely winner. The 4 lb allowance from the older horse and inside post don’t hurt either. Solid Contender.
4 George Washington (IRE) / Mick Kinane / Aidan P. O'Brien / 10-1
Connections are taking a shot here and have him in over his head. Has some dirt pedigree, but isn’t as fast as the other Euro on turf. Isn’t as well breed for dirt, and will be trying 10f for the first time. No horse has won the Classic in their first try at 10f. Pass
5 Lawyer Ron / Patrick Valenzuela / Todd A. Pletcher / 20-1
Ran a couple fast ones once he switched to dirt routes as a 2yo. Continued to improve at 3 until running a clunker in the derby. Took three months off but has picked up where he left off. Got down to a –1 last time, and could have another move in him. Gets almost a point allowance from the older horse. Good exotics value at 20-1.
6 Perfect Drift / Garrett Gomez / Murray W. Johnson / 20-1
Hard knocking 7 yo, makes his record fifth starting the Classic. He finished 3rd last year and really get this one at his home track. His races this year have been dull, and the wear and tear is starting to show. Would be a great story if he could get a piece but it seems unlikely as his best race days are behind him.
7 David Junior / Jamie Spencer / Brian Joseph Meehan / 10-1
Ran a monster –1 on the grass in Dubai. He handily defeated The Tin Man who went on to win the Arlington Million. He would have been very hard to handle in the turf, but the connections have been pointing for this since March. He has an American pedigree and should take to the dirt fine. Based on the general relationship between most turf and dirt figs, he could have something like a –4 in him on dirt. Possibly better if they add lasix. Solid contender and good value in the win spot at 10-1.
8 Lava Man / Corey Nakatani / Doug O'Neill / 6-1
He has bad feet and has never run well outside of California. He has run two big ones, but his last 5 have not been good enough. If he can get back to his previous best he could get a piece, but given his shipping troubles I kind of doubt that is going to happen. Pass
9 Giacomo / Mike Smith / John A. Shirreffs / 30-1
Last years Derby upsetter has had trouble staying on the track since the Triple Crown. His last was a pair up of his derby effort so maybe a new top is possible. Horses by his sire don’t tend to develop much after three though. (About a point a year, half the average for all horses) So even if the he does run a new top it’s unlikely it will be big enough for him to get involved. Pass
10 Flower Alley / John Velazquez / Todd A. Pletcher / 30-1
Had trouble getting back on track after finishing second in this last year. Ran a solid race first time out in June, but then has two bad ones since. At his best he could be a contender. I could excuse one dull race, but two in a row is not the way to prep for the toughest race of the year. Pass.
11 Invasor (ARG) / Fernando / Jara Kiaran P. McLaughlin / 5-1
Got sick and missed a chance to run the Jockey Club against Bernardini. Missing your last prep is never a good thing, but his three pervious figs make him a contender. He is also a southern hemisphere 4 year old, and really only 3 ½. Candy Stripes usually produces late bloomers and he is also a southern hemisphere 4 year old (really only 3 ½). He could still have some developing to do and may be a monster next year. Playable in the exotics if the price drifts up a bit, which it should.
12 Suave / Kent Desormeaux / Paul J. McGee / 30-1
Has had some soundness issues, but improved steadily every year. Two back he ran a new top of –2.5. Last time out he had a troubled trip and ran a 5.5. This seems to be his best distance and he has enough speed to work out a trip from the 12 post. At 30-1 I’ll excuse the troubled trip and play him underneath in the exotics.
13 Sun King / Rafael Bejarano / Nicholas P. Zito / 15-1
Has some fast fig’s on his sheet, getting to a top of a –2.25 two back. He will be dropping back early and trying to pass them all late. His past races beyond a mile and an eighth have been much worse than his 8 – 8.5f races. If there were a dirt mile breeders cup race he would be a legit contender, just can see him having enough left to pass 10 of these going 10f. Pass.
Summary ~
Win candidates ~ David Junior, Bernardini
Possible 2nd or 3rd ~ Premium Tap, Lawyer Ron, Invasor, Suave