This was an extremely disappointing Breeders Cup for me in every way. It was a bad day parimutally and a bad day as a fan of the sport.
From the horseplayer...
It was just a bad day for me. The most painful (yet exciting) race of the day for me was the BC Mile. On October 6th, on this very forum, I began a thread titled "Miesque's Approval" in the Racing Forum. I made a case that he was America's lone hope to win a BC Turf race. The thread went without any comments, and I, for the most part, stuck it in the back of my mind. I wish I would have went back and read that post Friday night, maybe I would have been smart enough to put a few bucks on Miesque's Approval. At 24-1 I think he ended up being good value. And although I started a pick 3 in that race, was life after the Distaff, I was humbly defeated in the turf by Red Rocks (whom I didn't care for). I managed to hit the exacta in the mile as my lone cash for the card. Played multiple pick threes from Ouija Board to Henny Hughes to Miesque's Approval, Araafa, and Silent Name...Overall, the day was just frustrating. I feel like my bet structure was decent, but got several "dud" efforts from horses I liked very much. I can look upon this Breeders Cup and feel like I didn't have any missed opportunities, I feel like I really didn't have any opportunity.
From the fan...
The inside bias that occurred is a travesty. I believe the smallest field was 10 runners and several races had 14 entrants. Would it be possible to have one battle to the wire? One memorable stretch run? We had none..especially on dirt. Dreaming of Anna, Street Sense, Thor's Echo, Round Pond, and Invasor all won going away. It was never a doubt with any of them. There were the winners, then the also rans. I can't say I found one horse that "if" they would have had a better trip would have beat the winners. Take nothing away from those who won, winning a BC race is difficult in itself, but these races left me feeling empty. Trevor Denman was awful. I gave him praise initially. His Dreaming of Anna call was by far his best of the day, but it's probably easiest for announcers to call wire-to-wire horses. His calls in the Juvenile, Mile, Distaff, and Classic were HORRIFIC. As the biggest day of racing on the calendar (top to bottom) you have got to be on your "A" game. You can't call horses names incorrectly. Mystique's Approval? Baleeeeeeto? You can't miss runaway performances a la Street Sense & Round Pond. C'mon Trevor... Where's Tom Durkin? I'm going to start a petition to get him back...Lastly, rest in peace Pine Island. That should put a damper on anyone’s day as a fan of this sport. Bad enough to see these athletes go down on a Wednesday at Hollywood, but on the biggest stage of the year, <sigh>.
Lesson's to learn...
I will take two things from this Breeders Cup that I will try to etch in my brain for the duration of my horse racing days. First, be very suspect of low priced 3yo's. Henny Hughes, Bernardini, Pine Island (RIP) and Wait A While (all superstars in their own right) were defeated at low odds. The only 3yo that won on the card was Red Rocks who scored at 9-1. The second thing I will try to remember is to dismiss any runner coming over from Europe for the BC Classic. Until history is bucked, let them beat you. George Washington gave a decent account of himself, but was defeated handily, David Junior didn't finish the race.
...Til' next time take care of yourself and each other.
BAAAAAHHHH! That is my final thought. I have had very good fortune over the previous 22 runnings of the BC. After cashing a 5 horse $1 exb and showing a profit of $5.40 after the first race, my bamkroll went south at about $25-$40 per race for the rest of the day. I wasn't even close on anything. Totally blew the F & M by boxing the two chalks, and not just using queen Ouija over Honey and/or Film.
I think in the future, I am no longer going to the Sports Haven simulcenter, but staying at home with my widescreen HD (better than their HDs), computer, and online account when the BC is not at Belmont.
The problem with Sports Haven is that they didn't have the volume on for the ESPN feed, and the volume was not turned up loud enough to hear Trevor's terrible calls. I like all the stuff between races. Any valuble up to the minute info, is not available.
JMan--CD ran like it does every race day, and especially on the BIG days.
This wasn't on polytrack. Maaybe your handicapping had been skewed by watching the recent Keeneland strong outside closer bias.
CD,Gulfstream,Belmont and the west coast tracks--they all favor speed, and outside of the Belmont stretch, most favor the inside.
I was big on OCTAVE in the BC Juvy filly race. I thought I had the big win when the rider moved up to ANNA, pulling outside to go by. When OCTAVE swung to the outside, her momentun stopped abruptly. I then knew that ANNA was better than expected, and that the rail was probably golden.
Watch the run of STREET SENSE in the next race. How far back was he early? Then look at the move he made to the front. Same with ROUND POND, though she was more forwardly placed. But look at INVASOR's outside run.
CD played like CD, plain and simple.
Anyone who expected otherwise was misguided and naive.
Hey--the AOL group wants to blow off Monmouth for a Vegas group trip next year.
Any thoughts or ways you could help us out?
I think the real travesty is when two favorites break down in the same race. Churhhill and others are souping up their track on big race days; the harder the surface, the faster the times, and the more likely breakdowns occur. I saw two photos of the track Friday and Saturday, and there was a definite difference. I could also not believe that they had only ONE equine ambulance - Fleet Indian had to wait 20 minutes for an ambulance. The owner was totally pissed and I don't blame him. I wouldn't blame either owner involved for taking some sort of legal action against Churhhill. Just seems too coincidental that both fillies break their legs in the same race and the track condition isn't too blame.
SJ - I don't follow the Churchill Downs meetings as closely as some around these boards, so I wouldn't be able to seriously debate whether Churchill Downs has an inside bias or not. However, there is no excuse for the surface that was laid out this past Saturday. None. In handicapping the Polytrack races I did one of two things, give a good effort over the poly a plus, a poor effort was a toss. I will continue to do this as I begin to divulge into the So. Cal tracks utilizing these surfaces.
Might I remind you, the dirt races aren't what hurt me. I had Round Pond in the Distaff. The BC Turf is what eliminated me.
Street Senses effort is probably the evident of the bias that occurred. Circular Quay, who was towards the center of the track looked like he was running through a 10 foot puddle of mud while Street Sense looked like he was on route 66 as he skipped up the rail.
If Churchill Downs played like Churchill Downs then I guess I've been wrong about their surface for a very long time. Maybe their trying to take the place of Keeneland and the golden rail.
Anyways, enough bickering about this Breeders Cup. SJ, Send me an email and let me know what you guys are thinking about doing out here (dates, potential locations, etc.) I'll see what I can do.
I don't know of any track that has two horse vans - I've only seen one at AP, but they could have one out of sight.
Unfortunately, most injured horses are too cheap to justify "Barbaro" efforts & are killed(euthanized is IMHO the wrong term) immediately.
I remember a race being delayed at a track while waiting for the second human ambulance to return from the hospital - their rule was "2 human ambulances" needed to run.
boris the spiderjohn (Login spiderjohn) UpInClass Member
Re: Final BC 06' thoughts...
November 8 2006, 2:55 PM
Hey gooch, if misquided and naive is considered name-calling, then I apologize.
And knowing JMan somewhat from a prior common message board, I don't really consider him either. I made that as a blanket comment with no one particular in mind, though Jason's comments led me to it.
Though we seem to hear these bias complaints after every big day at CD. You would think the player would get wise quickly. Like I said, the bias was clearly evident after the first three races, particularly the DREAMING OF ANNA race. Just go back to watch the move of OCTAVE as she tries to swing out and go around. Watch the run of the #7 winner in race 2. Though no one seemed to rocket up the rail in the Classic.
Ya gotta do your work , pay attention, and be ready to adapt to surface biases. Pretty f'n simple. Since I pretty much only play CD.Keeneland,Belmont and Toga, and am familar with the biases at those tracks, maybe I take that knowledge for granted.
As for me having a big day Saturday, that is yesterday's papers, and I really was talking about a clear, normal, somewhat expected dirt track bias.
Take my thoughts as a bargain--the best you ever had, and hopefully you won't get fooled again. Have a great time at the show and please fill me in!
I posted this in response to the bomb of the day post, but it fits in here:
"Frankly, although everbody is talking about it, I'm not buying the Golden Rail theory. Round Pond was best. So was Street Sense. In both cases, it was smart racing to sit on the rail and wait for an opening rather than move out into the middle of the field. Dreaming of Anna had the rail and got comfortable fractions and likely was the best horse in any event. Maryfield had the rail by the turn as she was in the lead. However, It's No Joke and Thor's Echo both won going three wide on the turn and Invasor passed Bernardini on the outside also. Asi Siempre left the rail when blocked and went about 5 paths wide to get up for second. The horses inside her couldn't hold her off. All the same, kudos to you Steve for picking Round Pond."
The CD stretch is long and the jockeys that have the patience and draw inside will sit inside knowing that if they have the horse they'll get their opportunity to win. Borel does this all the time. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't. If the rail was so golden, Octave probably would have won the juvey fillies as she was skimming the rail all the way down the backside while Anna was racing a path or two off of it. She had the same position as Street Sense and Round Pond at the top of the stretch, she simply wasn't good enough to explode down the stretch as those two did. Same with Bordonaro, who was on the rail thru the turn while Thor's Echo looped outside of him and Attila's Storm. Bordonaro beat Thor's Echo in the Ancient Title, but last Saturday, Thor was the better horse.
My feeling is the rail was indeed the place to be. Also, the change from the way races were run the previous three days to how they ran on Saturday was very different.
Reading the charts from the previous three days of racing, there are a number of horses winning 3, 4 & 5 wide or wider. They raced on or off the pace. Yes, there were also some winners who hugged the rail and were rewarded too those days. Thing is though, outside horses were running not floundering like they did on Saturday. Most all who made any impact were inside early and those outside had little left for the stretch run.
Dreaming of Anna, floated four wide first turn, got back to the rail, Octave raced inside, swung out and what happened? Thor's Echo was on the rail for most of his trip, swung out around Bordanaro and immediately dove back to the rail. Friendly Island had a rail trip before swinging out late. Prado on Round Pound nearly went outside at the top of the stretch and dove back in, Asi Siempre "worked her way forward inside before swining out". Street Sense saved ground the entire time. Invasor got a pretty good trip before swinging wide, Bernardini on the other hand was out further in the strip for his trip. Brother Derek and Premium Tap were down close to the rail.
Invasor was the only horse who ran some of his race wide and who also made a significant move and won, Bernardini ran a very creditable race imo given the path he was in.
fwiw
This message has been edited by Forego on Nov 8, 2006 6:20 PM
As crazy as it sounds after reviewing the Graphs (their up btw race of the week), it just looks like the ready horses just happened to be drawn inside. In the dirt races 3 of the horses I really liked DOA, SS, and RP all happened to draw the rail. In the case of RP and SS, I don't think it would've made any difference, they were winning those races regardless. DOA got away with easy fractions and repulsed the bid of Octave, who actually ran the 3rd best race when you factor in Cotton Blosom's ground loss. The biggest surprise was Thor's Echo who not only didn't bounce, but jumped forward to a fig that would have won any Sprint in the last several years. There were several runners who's line didn't read like 1w1w and still ran well, just didn't win: Giacomo, Invasor, Berni, Cottom Blosom, etc... all had wide trips and made good runs, just were no match for the winners. Actually watching the races unfold there seemed to be a pronounced inside bias, now in retrospect I'm just thinking that it was really more luck that the ready horses drew inside.
A couple things I learned a while ago that held form:
1) You don't come over from Europe as an afterthought and win a Breeders' Cup race. I saw several references to liking Hurricane Run's chances "even if he ran his "B" race." I thought he was the biggest sucker horse on the card.
2) The Sprint should never be looked at as a race with a "lock" in it. It's the classic spread and hope for chaos situation year-in and year-out. Groovy twice, Housebuster, Lost in the Fog all looked better on paper than Henny Hughes. They all lost too.
One thing I haven't learned and probably never will at his point:
If you like a 58-1 shot, you've probably already figured the race is a crap-shoot. If you're set up to score if he wins and have him underneath eight horses for second, you might as well spend the extra ten bucks to cover the field, especially if the smallest return is almost a grand for two dollars. Or take the place and show dough. Anything but sit there like a dope when he runs second.
Sorry Reg, just don't buy the argument that the most ready horses just happened to draw inside. The rail was the place to be hands down, the margins, add in that most any horse that did anything came from the rail and those who tried outside tired and relatively badly all points to inside be the best place to be -- by far.
Just have to wait and see what happens when some of these start running back in other races.
And why is it that the CD track super wouldn't return phone calls about the grooming of the track?
Controversial Andy Beyer still writing columns for the Daily Racing Form gives his take on the Breeders Cup surface.
Here's the link to the renowned racing gurus latest thoughts:
Your post really started me thinking, Reggie, and I am seldom one that spends a lot of time reviewing past results in this way.
I agree that the best horses Saturday won the races, with only minor aid from the racing surface.
Can't knock the Juvy filly winner. She dominated every step of the way.
The Juvy winner came from FAR back to win going away in an incredible Beyer. His opposition was far from intimidating going into the race, and STREET SENSE was only beaten last out by a pre-mature move to the front.
The Sprint winner ran both inside and outside, to still win convincingly. No bias beat any short-priced runners there. Face it--the chalk ran last. When was the last time the winner of the fall NY sprints did ANYTHING in this race, despite always being heavily backed?
In the Distaff, the two favorites went down. The winner had strong credentials, and used a patient ride to also win easily. Coming through on the inside was only natural and smart riding. Why go 5-wide if you don't have to do so? The runners-up in that race are usually runners-up anyway.
The Classic came down to the top two runners, with the best horse winning.
The turf races were won by the best-trained, NOW runners that were given the smartest rides.
Looking back, there were no deserving favorites beaten by any track surface bias. While there was a rail-favoring surface, that is usually the case at most dirt tracks, and it is hardly uncommon at CD.
