Juvenile filles - talk about the 'all' button. Five undefeated fillies and the rest aren't bad. Like A to the Croft as a longshot at this point.
Lots of ways to go in the Juvenile colts. I don't think War Pass is anything like a single though he seems like a must use.
Nashoba's Key looks pretty key in the F&M Turf with maybe one or two others possible.
At least 4 I like in the Sprint including Idiot Proof, In Summation, Smokey Stover and, much as I'm not a fan, Kelly's Landing to benefit from the quick pace.
A couple of passes through and pending post draws and how the track plays Wednesday to Friday, here's who I'm looking at:
J-Fillies:
Tasha's Miracle was hung out way, way wide throughout her last, ran on well, draws better could be very dangerous at long odds. Grace Anatomy had a bit of a rough start, also wide in her last and ran on well. Proud Spell, just looked visually impressive in her Matron romp. At to the Croft and Izarra are the other two.
J-Colts:
Shore Do was steadied ever so slightly on the far turn, lost ground, then made a huge sweeping run on the turn to near contention, went inside and had to alter course back out when Dodging Bullets came out in front, still closed for 3rd. Tale of Ekati has worked very well for this one, liked Pyro's race in the Champagne, Dixie Chatter & Salute the Sarge.
F&M Turf:
Throw out Honey Ryder's last, she doesn't like AP's turf,
Nashoba's Key, not sure about the Euro's.
Sprint:
Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull (needs to break cleanly not like his last), Greg's Gold is going to be the wise guy horse and both Smokey and Idiot have beaten,the former giving 4lbs and the latter getting 1lb. Does the Lude bounce? Kelly's Landing has popped big ones before coming off a long rest.
Format wise -- 2x2x2x4? Or do we try and find a single?
This message has been edited by Forego on Oct 23, 2007 3:42 PM
I have a hectic weekend comming up so I will post my picks now just in case.
Juv Fillies BACKSEAT RHYTHM, A To The Croft
Sprint KELLYS LANDING, Attila's Storm
F&M Turf NASHOBA'S KEY,All My Loving
Juvi's SLEWS TIZNOW, Kodial Kowboy
Pas, I know you mentioned you had limited access but need you to drop in with some thoughts when you can.
Rap and Turf need you guys to check in with some additional thoughts too.
I don't see a single (unless any of you do) in any of these races especially with the weather, almost guaranteed a sealed sloppy or flat out muddy main track and potentially yielding turf course
I'm thinking we're stuck with a 2x2x2x4 format. Not sure which race is the 4 but I'm leaning towards one of the Juvys
Here's where we're at right at the moment:
Fillies:
A to the Croft (Turffan/DocD)
Irish Smoke (Rap)
Indian Blessing (Forego - she could steal away here with the scratch of Cry and Catch Me)
Izarra (Forego)
Tasha's Miracle (Forego)
Colts:
War Pass (Turffan/Forego he seems like a must include)
Irish Smoke (Rap)
Slew's Tiznow (DocD)
Kodiak Kowboy (DocD)
Dixie Chatter (Forego)
Shore Do (Forego)
F&M Turf:
Nashoba's Key (Turffan/Forego/DocD)
Honey Ryder (Rap/Forego)
All My Loving (DocD)
Simply Perfect (Rap)
Passage of Time (Forego)
Jerry, I will be chiming in sometime today, I promise. I've narrowed my choices down in all four races, and as soon as I have some sufficient time, I'll chime in.
I've been lurking and taking it all in. It's getting exciting!
If possible get your ticket posted by Friday night. Should have internet access at the hotel,if not I'll call Rap early Sat for the choices. Thanks.
Hooper
Well, here I am. Let's see what kind of idiotic musings I can come up with.
Juvenile Fillies: I have it narrowed down in my mind to Izzara and Proud Spell, but I'm leaning quite strongly now toward McAnally's filly. I really liked her last race in the Oak Leaf, where she nearly ran down Cry And Catch Me at the Juvy distance, and that one would be probably co-favorite in here if she had made it in. I think she's sitting on a huge race, and an off track (quite likely) would move her up big time. You're just not going to find much better mud breeding than this one has, and that alone might just offset the fact that she's never run on conventional dirt.
I like Proud Spell a lot as well......I can't get the visual out of my mind of the way she sat professionally off the pace and then was sending them an e-mail saying "wish you were here" at the wire.
I'm skeptical about Indian Blessing. I'm not sure about the two turns for her, and I have trouble trusting a filly who's aired in her only two career starts going into a race like this. She'll be a pretty short price, and I admit she's scary, but I'm letting her beat me. The others I like a little are A To The Croft and Grace Anatomy....they'll be on my tickets somewhere.
My picks in order are: Izzara and Proud Spell
Juvenile: War Pass is obvious. We leave him off at our peril, and I will have a little bit more to say about him later. The other one I'm looking at in here is Z Humor. Ya know, he ran a sneaky good race in the Champagne, only beaten 3 lengths by a potential beast, and he was doing his own little close within his own race. The thing that's hidden a bit in that last effort is his potential to improve leaps and bounds going two turns. He's bred similarly to Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor over A P Indy.....another with monster mud genetics), and he has every right to step it up. The report I heard about his last work being disappointing is certainly disturbing, but I had already honed in on him, and I don't think it's wise to jump off a horse, especially a 2yo, just because of a less than stellar work.
I'm also skeptical about Wicked Style, though I admit that it's probably more about his sire than about the poor baby! Macho Uno.......Yuk! Tale Of Ekati is certainly scary, but he'll be a strong second choice, and if I have to use a favorite, I'd rather go with War Pass.
My picks in order are: War Pass and Z Humor (with a little extra push toward the latter)
F&M Turf: I know that Nashoba's Key has her skeptics here and other places as well. I know it's dicey to lay all your hopes and dreams on a horse shipping out of California for the first time. After the General Challenge/Manistique/Lava Man/Brother Derek debacles, that's understandable. That being said, she WILL be my personal single, and I will do it with at least a reasonable amount of confidence. The thing that makes her the scariest is not necessarily that string of "1's" next to her name, but the way she's done it. She doesn't win by open lengths.....she just does what she needs to do, and she knows where that wire is. In her short career to date, she shows a professionalism that belies her relative inexperience. Frankly, she reminds me of John Henry in that sense.......and she's got a nasty attitude to boot! Maybe that DOES make a difference! I like Honey Ryder a little bit also in this race. There's no Ouija Boards or Film Makers in here (at least not yet;-), and this might be Pletcher's best chance on the day.
Wait A While? Wet turfy / No touchy! 'Nuff said!
My picks in order are: Nashoba's Key and Honey Ryder (but Nashoba's Key is a single for me)
Sprint: Call me crazy, but, on the top of my ticket(s), I'll be throwing out both Midnight Lute and Greg's Gold. This time it IS a shipping issue with Greg's Gold. The only time he tried it, he got thumped at Churchill. Granted, the one who did the thumping, among others, was Fabulous Strike, but somehow that doesn't make me feel any better exactly. I'm staying away from 'Lute on top because I just don't know what to do with that explosion at the Spa, and I have a feeling that the 7 furlong thing with him isn't the same as it was with Squirtle Squirt. At the price, he'll beat me. I'm leaning toward the three outside horses here. Smokey Stover.....what can you say? The only time out of the exacta in 13 starts was that race at Calder where he hated the surface, and probably finished third on class alone. He's a must-use. Forefathers has already gotten some above-the-radar discussion here at UIC, and I too think he's got a big chance in here. I love the shortening up after a very good race over a mile (against another potential beast), and he might be sitting on a career effort. If the speed is holding, Talent Search could be the upsetter. He's being tested for class, though he handled himself very nicely last out in a GI against the aforementioned Fabulous Strike, this is second off the lay, and he'll probably be double digits. Using.
My picks in order are: Smokey Stover, Forefathers, and Talent Search
I've probably stirred up the slum-gullion here a little bit, but it is what it is.
Alright team, looks like we've got a consensus one race, close on another and the other two, divergent points of view on the babies.
Anyhow, I've come up with three potential tickets for us to kick around and see what we can come up with. Please weigh in with your thoughts and what ticket you prefer and who we need to kick or replace!
The first is a 8 x 1 x 2 x 2 ticket consisting of:
A to the Croft, Backseat Rhythm, Indian Blessing, Irish Smoke, Izarra, Phantom Income*, Proud Spell, Tasha's Miracle* (* = open for suggestions/substitutes)
War Pass
Nashoba's Key, Honey Ryder
Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull
Second: 2 x 4 x 2 x 2
A to the Croft, Izarra
War Pass, Tale of Ekati, Slew's Tiznow, Z Humor
Nashoba's Key, Honey Ryder
Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull
Third: 2 x 2 x 2 x 4
A to the Croft, Izarra
War Pass & (pick one: Kodiak Kowboy,Tale of Ekati,Slew's Tiznow, or Z Humor)
Nashoba's Key, Honey Ryder
Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull, Talent Search & (Pick one:
Kelly's Landing or Idiot Proof)
The last set-up is the one that's most attractive to me.
I would pick Z Humor to go along with War Pass in the Juvy, and either option in the Sprint (Kelly's Landing or Idiot Proof) would be completely acceptable to me.
I really do have a feeling about Z Humor. I know he's going to be a bomber, and there's probably a couple of good reasons why, but Farda Amiga was a bomber in the Ky Oaks after a similar "sneaky good" race in the SA Oaks, just as an example. I'm having a bit of trouble getting that out of my mind. I will absolutely go along with whatever the team finally decides, but I just have to push this one a little. He's playin' with my head! LOL!
I agree that the last option is the best, and with the selctions in the F&M and the Juv Fillies. In the Sprint I would go with Kelly's Landing as the final choice, and though I like Tale of Ekati a bit, I would defer to Pas on her choice of Z Humor.
Just spoke to Hooper and confirmed that he'll call me on Saturday if he can't get the selections online in NJ.
Thanks Rap. Tale Of Ekati is extremely scary, but he'll be pretty close behind War Pass in the wagering, and I'm thinkin' maybe it's better to go with a price horse, especially since none of them may be able to beat War Pass anyway. If you're going to use anybody else at all, may as well go for the value.
The filly race is the most wide open in the sequence, but I remember a couple of years ago when we kicked around the idea of using 8 in the F&M Turf (ended up not doing it), and not one of us gave Intercontinental a mention anywhere. Unless you can hit the all button, I think it's actually best not to try and spread that far in any one race given your budget.
only because it gives more on the inside in the first leg.A To The Croft has it up against her coming from way out there.Although I'm not too keen on singling War Pass, with the track sealed(?) he may have the best chance from the 2 hole.I very much doubt we will see any horse win from outside post eight.
Smokey Stover, Benny the Bull, Talent Search, Kelly's Landing
Unless there are major objections, last minute strokes of genius, or some nagging "there's something about this horse" thoughts that pop into someone's head, I propose we go with the above and let Team #2 pick up on GallantBob's generous offer of added money.
It seems the team is most comfortable with this format. And, while War Pass is the closest we come to in agreement about being a possible single -- no one would be surprised to see another win this race.
I think we've got a nice blend in the Fillies, Mandella doesn't come to these events on a lark and Izarra should love the off going and breaks from the 8 post. A to the Croft is another who should take to the off track, and while disadvantaged by her post did close ground in her last from the 10 hole.
The Colts, a wide open affair in my mind where any of a half-dozen (or more) could pop. If War Pass does get the easy lead we're looking pretty good and if not Z Humor, another mud loving mother draws the rail and saves all the ground.
F&M Turf, hard to believe the post I just read where the BC is expecting the turf to be good to firm as an inch plus of rain is forecasted over the next 36 hours. In any event, we've got an undefeated filly and a hard knocking, lover of the distance mare to carry our colors.
The Sprint, a nice blend of speed, pace attenders and a mid pack closer. Anything can happen in this race and a lot of times does.
I want to thank Hooper and GallantBob for their generosity and hope that we can nail one here. Also, thanks to everyone for your insights and taking the time to kick things around
I agree with the format and the picks. I'll get them to Hooper tomorrow if he doesn't pick them up online tonight or if there are any last minute changes. Thanks for letting me participate.
Rap
Current Topic - Precisionist P4 Team#1 (Doc/Pas/Rap/Turffan)
Tale Of Ekati is certainly scary, but he'll be a strong second choice, and if I have to use a favorite, I'd rather go with War Pass.