Thought that I'd start this thread for our discussions of the Juvenile.
I have been looking at the abundance of material at the Breeders' Cup website, including biographical information on each of the BC pre-entrants. Most of the bios include a video of a recent race.
One of the most useful things I have found at that site are videos of the most recent races for the two year olds. By watching the videos of the Norfolk, Saratoga Special, Hopeful, Belmont Futurity, Keeneland Breeders' Futurity and Champagne, one can get a better handle on almost all of these horses.
In looking at the race experience of the runners in the Juvenile, several things jumped out at me. I don't really know how much of an impact any of them will have on the outcome of the race, but a I do my analysis of each of the runners, I plan to keep in mind several factors that may have a bearing.
1. Surface Factor: A large number of runners have run every one of their career races on various types of synthetic surfaces and have never raced over "real" dirt. That doesn't mean that they can't, and some would say that a prep on a polytrack gives you a fitness edge for a dirt race. But, until a horse has actually raced on real dirt, you always have to wonder how well they will take to it.
The horses who have never raced on "real" dirt are:
Dixie Chatter
Overextended
Salute The Sarge
Shore Do
Texas Fever (probably running in Juvie Turf)
Wicked Style
2. Distance Factor: a number of these horses have never run a race beyond one mile and are being asked to stretch out in distance. Most of these are the East Coast runners, since the Saratoga/Belmont prep schedule does not have a race beyond one mile. Those stretching out are:
Kodiak Kowboy (never beyond 7 furlongs)
Majestic Warrior (never beyond 1 mile)
Pyro (never beyond one mile)
Tale of Ekati (never beyond 7 furlongs)
War Pass (never beyond 1 mile)
Z Humor (never beyond 1 mile)
3. Two Turn Factor: The 1 1/16th mile distance a Monmouth Park is run around two turns. A number of these horses have never run around two turns (not surprisingly, the same ones who are also stretching out in distance). They are the following:
Kodiak Kowboy
Majestic Warrior
Pyro
Tale of Ekati
War Pass
Z Humor
4. Experience Factor: This is a very lightly raced group of horses. The following horses all have only raced three times in their careers:
Majestic Warrior
Pyro
Shore Do
Slew's Tiznow
Tale of Ekati
War Pass
Wicked Style
Z Humor
I wouldn't use any or even all of these factors as a reason for automatically throwing a horse out. But the existence of one or several of these factors will certainly make me take a second look at that horse when making final decisions.
Majestic Warrior has been declared out of the Juvie due to an injury to his hoof. It's entirely possible that this is directly connected to his poor performance in the Champagne.
Beresford had been declared from the race several days ago.
Just finished watching TVG's "The Works", in which several Juvies had workouts at Keeneland and Belmont.
Tale of Ekati had a very quick (45.3 for 4f) work at BEL and seemed to be doing it on his own. He looked very impressive, with a nice smooth stride. He may have fooled rider Eibar Coa, since trainer Barkley Tagg said he was looking for a workout more in the 48 or 49 range.
Slew's Tiznow had a 58.4 work at KEE, seemed to be going very smoothly. Gary Stevens was oohing and aahing about it.
Pyro had what looked to be more of a maintenance work at KEE. Couldn't tell much from it one way or the other.
Z Humor had a work at BEL that seemed to be disappointing. He was working with a workmate but was not able to keep up with the workmate in the stretch. Bill Mott stated that he was looking for a bit more from that work. After seeing him today, I think that he moves quite a bit further down my depth chart.
This message has been edited by JolyB on Oct 22, 2007 9:15 PM
Then again, I just read Tagg's quote: "He went way, way, way too fast."
Maybe that's just Tagg being crabby. Or understandably upset by the rider not following orders. But if the horse bounces out of it OK, I think it's a positive -- if the horse ran that fast w/ no encouragement. If the rider was asking him, that's pretty dumb this close to a big race.
Most likely to stretchout and improve, Slews Tiznow
Most likely to run like gangbusters and not get caught, Kodiak Kowboy
Most likely to flop,THE CHALK whoever that may be.
Most likely to get my WIN money,SLEWS TIZNOW.
