At first glance, you gotta wonder -- what in the world is Forefathers doing in here?
Well, Bill Mott clearly wants him in here. That alone speaks volumes.
As does his crisp 2nd to Daaher in the Jerome. (Nobody was beating Daaher that day.) Forefathers smoked the first 6 f. of that race, post pace figs that suggest he can be a player at a price.
The Sprint has been kind to late bloomers. Thor's Echo, Silver Train and Cajun Beat didn't pop a competitive fig till their final prep. Each was overlooked and paid handsomely.
I'm sure they have been similar one-hit wonders who didn't pan out. That's why it's called gambling, not sure-thinging.
One thing's for sure: Mott's not a take-a-shot trainer. He sees something.
Some historical post Ancient Title success notwithstanding, the Sprint winner usually has a longer layoff on his side. I hope there aren't any more defections but at this point I see Benny The "Raging" Bull rolling by them all!
He's one of my top choices. Similar setup as Silver Train, coming in off a nice effort in the Jerome. Also like Clement's horse and Idiot Proof. Not too big on Greg's Gold. Is Biancone's filly going here or in the F&M sprint? If she goes here, I like her too.
This message has been edited by GAM-II on Oct 23, 2007 1:40 PM
I like Smokey in this spot, but my longshot will be coming from speedballs--Commentator and Talent Search. Now that it looks like the filly is opting for the easier spot, the lead will probably go to one of them. Either one could take them a long way, and if one stumbles (as did Commentator last year) we could be looking at a wire job.
"I like Smokey in this spot, but my longshot will be coming from speedballs--Commentator and Talent Search."
I'm thinking a fresh Attila's Storm and a newly blinkered Bordonaro will join the early fray as well. It'll be tough for any horse to get loose on the lead here.
"Some historical post Ancient Title success notwithstanding, the Sprint winner usually has a longer layoff on his side."
On that note, I've been wondering about Kelly's Landing. Off since hauling down the money in Dubai. Tends to throw a big one now and then. For now, this race is looking like a large ticket to me, and I'm tempted to include Kelly on it.
Shuman seems to share your view about Talent Search's early speed, Big:
“He’s faster than any horse I’ve ever seen. We’re going to the front (on Saturday). If someone goes with us, it will certainly hurt our chances, but it will cost them a lot more.”
His 1st quarters aren't blistering on paper but to go with Fabulous Strike at Belmont makes him fast in my mind.Some of those Pimlico splits can be deceiving also.It looks like they didn't turn him speed crazy until this spring.
Anyone have pace figures on Talent Search? Certainly his early quarters and final times on paper are a lot slower than several of these.Even his Monmouth race wasn't blistering early.Maybe I'm getting too hung up on that duel with Fabulous Strike At Belmont.
After seeing the post draw I think Talent Search is the place horse again. He finished second to the best sprinter in the land and I've screwed myself one too many times by not giving enough credit the 2nd place finisher to horses I loved. I think Benny The Bull taks this one down though, proven at 6, gets tons of pace, doesn't have to come from the clouds, and Dutrow is good at getting his shakes through customs.
The fastest horse he's ever seen??? Dude needs to watch more horse races -- including the ones Talent Search runs. The horse never finishes 1st unless he's an optional claimer or a little listed stake.
shoes, I played Monmouth EVERY day this past meet in the Survivor Pool and a horse with speed on the rail does have an advantage. I don't care what they do to the track in the Fall. The trainers know it also, so handicap accordingly. If there's mucho speed in the race and you feel the trainers will send their horses out quickly to try to obtain this advantage, then it may also set up for someone not too far behind, but not a dead closer. JMHO
Those are strong figs, and until the Vosburgh, he finished them off with strong speed figs. That's the combination I'm looking for.
I just wonder about his class, his competitiveness. He hit the brakes pretty hard down the lane in the Vosburgh. Why?
Was he short? Or did he get discouraged by chasing Fabulous Strike and just throw in the towel?
He's probably the speed of the speed here. But he's not gonna get loose on the lead -- not for long anyway. At some point, he'll feel the heat from critters who are a cut above Suave Jazz, Euro Code and Crafty Tricker.
At 15-1 or so, it's worth playing him to shake free, get brave and never even feel the heat. But I can't see it.
Top to bottom the Vosburgh was by far the best sprint race of the year, that alone makes you have to respect Talent Search. He bested Mach Ride who'd thumped Fab Strike and Smokey Stove in the Smile and he held off Discreet Cat (who'll be setting a world record for a mile + 70yds in a few days). Talent Search is a must use, even if you think he can't win, he shown he can run a Sprint type pace and hang around for a piece.
"One thing's for sure: Mott's not a take-a-shot trainer. He sees something."
One thing to consider regarding Forefathers, are we sure the "something" Mott is seeing is not insistance from the owner?? Zayat has spent a lot of money in the game and you know he wants to play on the biggest days. Case in point, perhaps Zee Zee in the Juv Fillies? Stranger things have happened and maybe I should not speak without having watched the race, but even Z Humor in the Juv? Is he running them because his owner says he has to?
How much credit can you give to Talent Search in necking a Discreet Cat who was coming off a 6 month, problem plagued layoff at a distance far from his best?
Can someone help me with the Ancient Title please? I saw a brief reply but was the race so good that the 4th place finisher was able to earn a 116? Oh, that's an Equibase fig as that's all I have now and maybe that's the bigger question, anyone have a handle on the E figures?
As for the Ancient Title horses, I know Greg's Gold is going to get played to death, I mean he's 9-2 ML with wins in a conditioned allowance, a listed stake, and 7f G2. I can't forget his shipping to Churchill for the Aristides at this 6f distance and getting dusted. Don't get me wrong, I love David Hoffmans, he trains nearly all my horses, but I think too many people are going to play that "troubled trip" angle on Saturday on a horse who should be much higher odds. My heart though might be with this horse; what a touching story resulting in his name.
>>>>are we sure the "something" Mott is seeing is not insistance from the owner?
Could be the case. It's always risky to assume that a trainer is totally making the call. But I still think the horse fits this less-than-stellar field and, hey, he's 20-1.
Oz, Greg's Gold has been competitive with the fastest horses in the west, and there are some quick ones. He was lengths the best in has last, but got a pathetic ride. If you think Idiot Proof ran well, GG was really much the better horse that day. Given the pace setup likely in the Sprint, his trip should be ideal.
Greg's Gold is bauxite, imo. Way too slow. Could get a minor piece, but that's it.
But I've been wrong before.
Then again, year after year horses with some of the biggest Beyers in the field are inexplicably ignored -- and it's happened a lot recently. E.g., Thor's Echo (15-1), Silver Train (12-1), Cajun Beat (23-1) and Squirtle Squirt (10-1). Big-fig bombers like Thunderello and Xtra Heat have completed some whopping exactas, too.
Greg's Gold may or may not be bauxite (cheers, Vagrant...first time I've ever heard a horse described that way), but I can tell you this: he's more than a poly-surface specialist. His victory in the Bing Crosby at Del Mar in 2005 -- real dirt -- was sensational. Note that he beat Taste of Paradise by 3.25 lengths that day, the same Taste of Paradise who took the Vosburgh a couple months later and who probably would have won the BC Sprint with a clean trip.
Got 40-1 on Forefathers on-line a little bit ago. Not saying he'll win, but have to think he won't go off anywhere near that at post time, especially in an 11 horse field.
Vagrant,
You definitely beat me to the punch. I was going to post on Forefathers as one of my sleepers. He actually was an early Derby candidate of mine when he was trained by Zito, but that was obviously not in the cards for him, and the distance wasn't either. I played him in his last race, which I thought was super. Mott knows what he has and this guy can be there at a big price.
Steve
JMHO and a rhetorical question - with all better jockey's at Monmouth Friday that are/were available for this race, why would Mott settle for an 8% winner in Hill? This is a million dollar race. He could have used Flores, Coa, Rose and several others who all have much higher win %'s. The horse still might win but but his chances would be vetter with a more accomplished jockey in the irons.
The Bobtail
If you don't want the genie to pop up - don't rub the lamp.
Umm, as far as I know, Forefathers is going in the Sprint with Desormeaux up. Kent has been Mott's go to guy the last several months. Was Corny V. a year or so ago, but things change I guess.
First race I've looked at...Greg's Gold jumps out at me...first rate trainer in my opinion, looks to be sensibly trained and should be sitting on a big one.
