Breeders' Cup Juvenile
1 Z Humor / Kent Desormeaux / William I. Mott / Zayat Stables LLC / 12-1
3 pt top last time to a competitive number. That is in the range where it is real difficult to run a consecutive top. Sounds like he may be feeling the effects too, as he really fell apart in his last work. Pass.
2 War Pass / Cornelio Velasquez / Nicholas P. Zito / Robert V. LaPenta / 5-2
Will see two turns for the first time, but has proven ability at a mile, and could move forward. If the swamp (track) is killing the speed he could be in trouble, otherwise he is a Contender.
3 Kodiak Kowboy / John Velazquez / Steven M. Asmussen / Vinery Stables / 8-1
Ran the fastest of fig of any of these two back sprinting at the spa and bounced last time. Can’t see any runner by Posse winning a BC race other than the sprint, but he is a decent price and the connections can’t be tossed completely. Playable in exotics
SCR Slew's Tiznow / Julien Leparoux / Francois Parisel / Joseph LaCombe Stables, Inc. / SCR
5 Shore Do / Mike Smith / Chuck Peery / Mike Connors, Terry and Kevin Jacobsen, Jim Hawkins / 30-1
Though he had a shot to run a new top here until the rains came, his sire hated it wet, and seems to be passing it on. Wouldn’t be shocked if they scratched. Pass
6 Overextended / Frankie Dettori / Doug F. O'Neill / J. Paul Reddam / 50-1
The name says it all. Pass
7 Pyro / Shaun Bridgmohan / Steven M. Asmussen / Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC / 6-1
Ran a big one last time going a mile. It was a 5 pt top though, which is a little dubious, especially since his dam, and older sis, each only managed 1 career start. Even so 6-1 is about the right price and a pair up with an OK trip puts him right there. Borderline Contender.
8 Globalization / Javier Castellano / Richard Violette Jr. / Klaravich Stables, Inc. and William Lawrence / 20-1
Ran a big one breaking his mdn last time at a mile. It was a huge top though, and he did it on an easy lead. Probably going to give a lot of ground and be going faster early than he wants. Pass.
9 Old Man Buck / Rafael Bejarano / Kenneth G. McPeek / Lawrence E. Carroll / 20-1
McPeek ran him on turf, because there are no 2 turn dirt races for 2 yo’s at Ellis. Last was really good, but was a huge top, and he like Globalization is used to the lead, and is going to lose a lot of ground. Pass
10 Tale of Ekati / Eibar Coa / Barclay Tagg / Charles Fipke / 7-2
Don’t like the price, post or fireball workout, but he has been consistent and fast. Races are well spaced and could run a top here. Showed quite a bit of athleticism working inside last time and IF he can do that again he’ll be right there. Contender
SCR Dixie Chatter / Ricahrd Migliore / Richard E. Mandella / Herman Sarkowsky / SCR
12 Salute the Sarge / David Flores / Eric Guillot / Southern Equine Stables LLC / 12-1
Ran three straight good ones, and could run a new top switching to dirt here. Dam and a couple siblings have run well on off tracks. He’s probably going to lose some ground too Guillot isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire either so I can’t back him on top, but he is Playable in exotics
13 Wicked Style / Robby Albarado / George R. Arnold III / Ashbrook Farm / 10-1
Two fast figs and wins at a mile +, and his Dad won the race so he’s a contender. Hey that’s not any goofier than the Win and you in promotion they did this year. Contender
Summary
Win Contenders: War Pass, Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Wicked Style
Playable in exotics: Salute the Sarge, Kodiak Kowboy
