Only slight changes after watching yesterday's races.
Juv Fillies
The scratch of Cry And Catch Me and A To The Croft catching the 14-hole changed the whole race for me as I had Croft figured to upset this group - but not from the 14-hole.
Indian Blessing becomes the defacto top choice now as I figured Cry to be the only one who might beat her out of the gate. She could have a 2-length lead after a 16th. Phantom Income & Tasha's miracle could catch up to her and using that much energy that early will cost them all chance - as if they really had one. If the track comes up sloppy, that would probably seal IB's win.
I see enough pace in here to allow Izarra & Grace Anatomy to get up for the exotics.
If the track is off - and I suspect it will be - Crypto's granddaughter, Clearly Foxy could shock the world and will be on my tickets all over the place.
Irish Smoke's first two races look scary as both were on dirt and her last - the last place finish, was on poly which Biancone blamed for the poor showing. But with Biancone's recent suspension, they'll be paying extra attention to his barn and that just might cause a significant regression in her dirt form
Mott's horse has to be considered a threat to make the bottom of the tri.
Emerald Downs? Doris Hardwood? Frazier? Rick's Natural Star?
Juvy
Any horse can win any race but War Pass looks like a very legitimate favorite in here - especially with my pre-post position draw upset pick, Wicked Style, catching the 13-hole. I make War Pass a 3-1 fav to win it.
In looking for another possible upsetter, there are two that caught my eye - Tale Of Ekati because he was able to run down Kodiac Kowboy in his last and Pyro because he showed major improvement when he stretched out last race and was getting to War Pass big time in the Champaign.
Wicked Style should be able to tuck in and save some ground but I can't see him pulling a Silky Sullivan for the win - I think he's better used underneath.
Same with Mott's Z Humor who will probably be pinned to the rail most of the race but might find a hole late to get a piece of the Super.
Kodiac Kowboy is 4 for 4 at 6Fs but that streak was stopped last race when he was caught late in the 7F Belmont Futurity. Now he's trying a mile & 1/16th. His sire's AWD was 5.3Fs and based on that, I'm tossing him.
Salute The Sarge and Globalization will probably try to run with War Pass but that will be their undoing.
F&M Turf @ 1-3/8th miles
I settled on Ben Cecil's Passage Of Time a couple weeks ago and I still have this one on top. The uninformed betting public will hammer unbeaten Nashoba's Key when they see her 7 for 7 record but she's only blown away one field and that was a preliminary allowance group. 5 of her other 6 wins were all by less than a length. Every streak comes to an end sometime and this will be it for her. The best filly she's beaten is Balance and this Juddmonte filly might be twice the horse Balance is. The turf course will probably be soft and Ben's filly loves a soft course.
A soft course will also make Lahudood a force to be reckoned with. If there is one factor that might compromise her, it's the distance. She's best at a mile & 1/4th and beyond. Tonly time she missed a check was the only time she went less than a mile and a quarter.
Aiden O'Brien's horses always have to be given a 2nd look and i did with All My Loving. Without going into a lot of detail - the horse has a maiden win and that's all despite almost always cashing a check. She's a good pick for the bottom of the exotics but you shouldn't expect a maiden winner who lost by 4+ lengths in a Hcp race last out to be a real contender to win a BC race - Arcangeles notwithstanding.
Honeyrider - a very useful horse for ubertrainer Pletcher who seems to have bad luck when there is extra barn security in place - last year at the BC he was 0 for 15 - pretty dismal for a guy who was winning at a 30% clip. I expect more of the same this year unless the security is lax.
Wait A While - the one American horse who I suspect can finish as high as second even without Pletchers magic grits. (Ref: My Cousin Vinny)
Argentina - I've seen several posts on several boards predicting a possible win for this mare. This mare is a whopping 2 for 14 lifetime. And if she really had a chance to win this do you think her trainer (Frankel) would really be staying home from the BC because his dog was sick? --- unless said report was false.
The last 4 in the gate all have a chance for a check but I'm leaving them off the top 2 spots in the exotics.
The Sprint
We still don't know how to convert a horse's form on poly to dirt form therefore I look at every win or close finish on poly with a suspect eye. Look at Bordonaro's last 3 races - all were on poly and he never finished better than 3rd, yet on dirt he's won 8 of 13 at the distance. Last year the Ancient Title was run on dirt and he wired the field. This year it was run over the new poly and he led for 5 furlongs only to be passed by 3 horses in the last furlong. That type of performance is very common over the poly. You have to upgrade his chances here over dirt. Unfortunately the dirt might be very wet tomorrow. If they seal the track we will get a 'wet-fast surface and this horse has a shot to score and pay boxcars.
Also note that Commentator is 3 for 3 over wet dirt tracks - another potential winner at long odds.
Midnight Lute and Idiot Proof will take a lot of money but neither had tried an off track yet. I think that's reason enough to try and beat them in here at a price. If I play the Pk-3's, which I have all but decided to scrap, I'd all ML & GG to the mix.
This is a tough race for me to figure. If the going is dry and fast, Talent Search will be flying early and if anyone goes with him, they'll probably be cooked and cook all the horse that might try to stay within a length or two. If the track is sloppy, Talent Search might be able to wire the field.
It's pretty well accepted that Greg's Gold would have beaten Idiot Proof in the Ancient Title if he hadn't been totally boxed in for a quarter of mile.
Figure this one out for yourselves. I'll be playing almost all longshots in the race unless the previous races tell me what's happening with the surface tomorrow. I'm running out of time here so we'll go with the abbreviated version for the last four.
The Turf Mile
Excellent Art from the O'Brien barn (Aiden, not Leo) looks like the horse to beat.
My value horse is My Typhoon who will be overlooked at the windows because everyone will be looking at those last 2 races where she finished 6th & 8th and figure she's way off form. They'll miss the comment lines that tell them she stumbled out of the gate in both those races and lost all chance.
Others I'll be using in the exotics - After Market - Jeremy - Kip Deville
The Distaff
Lady Joanne on top just because Nafzger trains and i know The Spinster was a prep and she wasn't "used up" in that race.
Indian Vale - Ginger Punch - Unbridled Belle and Lears Princess in the exotics
Adding Octave on top & botton - someone who's acumen I really respect pointed out her second place finish to the legendary Rags To Riches was on an off track and is a major threat here.
The Turf
Dylan Thomas who will be the first complete the Arc-BC Turf double.
Better talk Now and English Channel to complete the low paying exotics
The Classic
Pletcher was wise not to mess with Curlin - Street Sense & Hard Spun. While they were beating up on each other - Lawyer Ron was beating the likes of Sun King, Diamond Strips, Brother Bobby and getting beat by Gotchya Gold, Corinthian and Politcal Force.
The 'capping say Curlin wins it with Street Sense 2nd and Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun, Tiago or Ron finishing the tri.
I will also be putting some down on Tiago to win in a big upset or finish 2nd to complete a nice paying exacta.
Curlin/AGS Exacta box. Curlin-AGS/SS, Tiago exactas
The Bobtail
If you don't want the genie to pop up - don't rub the lamp.
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