LARRY’S PICKS
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”
ANALYSIS OF THE “BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIP”, RACINGS’ $18,000,000.00 DAY! FOR THE FOURTH TIME IN THE 25 YEAR HISTORY OF THIS GREAT EVENT, SANTA ANITA PARK IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS THE HOST SITE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, RACES NOT SCHEDULED FOR THE GRASS COURSE WILL BE CONTESTED OVER A SYNTHETIC SURFACE. EXPANDED TO 2 DAYS LAST YEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE BREEDERS’ CUP WILL AGAIN HOLD RACES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS EDITION OF “LARRY’S PICKS” WILL ANALYZE ONLY THE TRADITIONAL SATURDAY MENU. 9 EVENTS WILL BE CONTESTED AT VARYING DISTANCES OVER BOTH THE SYNTHETIC ALL WEATHER TRACK AND THE TURF CULMINATING WITH THE BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC, A RACE THAT SAW MY TOP 3 SELECTIONS COMBINE FOR A $695.00 TRIFECTA BOX 2 YEARS AGO AT CHURCHILL DOWNS!
IN THE FUTURE KEEP IN MIND THE FINEST HORSE CHAT SITE ON THE WEB, WWW.UPINCLASS.COM! MY SELECTION PAGE CAN OFTEN BE VIEWED THERE, ALONG WITH THE OPINIONS OF MANY TALENTED HANDICAPPERS WHO HAVE COMBINED TO FORM AN EXCELLENT COMMUNITY OF GENEROUS HORSE RACING ENTHUSIASTS! I HOPE YOU CONSIDER VISITING THERE AND PLEASE ENJOY THE “SILVER ANNIVERSARY” OF THE BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS!
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND MAY THEY ALL COME BACK SAFE!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 1
Breeders' Cup Marathon
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $500,000
Distance: One And One Half Miles
Surface: All Weather Track
1st – CEDAR MOUNTAIN 6-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
In the inaugural running of the Marathon at 12 furlongs, I give the nod to this Irish bred son of GALILLEO. He broke his maiden over a synthetic track surface in Great Britain while carrying 139 pounds and he has won at this distance albeit on turf. Away since July, I expect him to fire fresh while going turf to synthetic.
2ND – ZAPPA 5-2 JOCKEY – GARRETT GOMEZ
This Grade 2 winner has 4 lifetime wins over synthetic surfaces and shows up as the “lone speed” herein. He’ll have to be caught to be beat.
3RD – SIXTIES ICON 3-1 JOCKEY – FRANKIE DETTORI
This prolific winner ships from Europe for strong connections and deserves respect. While he has never raced on a surface other than turf, he has 4 wins at this 12 furlong distance and indeed, 2 additional victories came while going further. A must use.
“SAVER” – DELIGHTFUL KISS 9-1 JOCKEY – CALVIN BOREL
At 2-2 over synthetics, this KISSIN KRIS 4 year old is as versatile as they come having won 6 races at 6 different tracks. He could take all with clever handling.
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 2
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $1,000,000
Distance: About Six And One Half Furlongs
Surface: Downhill turf
1ST – TRUE TO TRADITION 13-1 JOCKEY – K. CARMOUCHE
In a race where virtually all of the speed types drew wide, I expect this son of RAHY to carve out a perfect stalking trip from his inside post position enroute to his 3rd straight victory. How refreshing to see these connections stick with a relatively low profile jockey who has done everything right in guiding the horse to his 3 victories this year. I hope he goes 4 for 4!
2ND – ROUSE THE CAT 19-1 JOCKEY – EDGAR PRADO
Nostrilized by my top pick in the Grade 2 Nearctic last out, this improving 4 year old also drew well and he should be in a good position when the serious running begins. With the switch to Prado, you really can’t like 1 without the other!
3RD – HEROS REWARD 7-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
While he’s never raced at this exact distance, this gelding by PARTNER’S HERO has hit the trifecta in 16 of his 18 turf races and he may do it again!
“SAVERS” – SALUTE THE COUNT AND/OR FLEETING SPIRIT
In an extremely competitive affair I suggest considering going 5 deep. SALUTE THE COUNT comes off an 8 week layoff and 4 of his 8 turf victories were earned following similar vacations. FLEETING SPIRIT drops 13 pounds following a troubled trip 5th last out in France behind likely European sprint champion, MARCHAND d’OR! Neither would be a surprise in here.
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 3
TVG Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $1,000,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface: All Weather Track
1ST – WELL ARMED 5-2 JOCKEY – AARON GRYDER
This speedy son of 2 time Classic winner, TIZNOW will need to be patiently handled by Gryder following a less than ideal post position draw. The first turn in this flat mile event will be upon this field quickly and speed from the outside can get caught wide. He looks best but he can’t make any mistakes at a short price.
2ND – SURF CAT 8-1 JOCKEY – DAVID FLORES
8 for 10 in the money over synthetics and 9 for 10 at Santa Anita, this consistent 6 year old by SIR CAT is a must use in exotics.
3RD – LEWIS MICHAEL 6-1 JOCKEY – EIBAR COA
The only returnee from the inaugural Dirt Mile in 2007, he has been lightly campaigned this year while pointing to this spot. He hated the slop at Monmouth last year but he has performed well over synthetics as well as at the distance. I expect him to go well from his rail post position draw.
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 4
Breeders' Cup Mile
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $2,000,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface: Turf
1ST – GOLDIKOVA 3-1 JOCKEY – OLIVIER PESLIER
With top selections like DOMEDRIVER ($54.00), SINGLETARY ($35.00) and 2nd choice, KIP DEVILLE ($18.00) winning this race in the last 6 years, arguably this has been a very profitable race for readers of LARRY’S PICKS! Having said that, it pains me to spot a short odds horse on top for the 2008 BC Mile. GOLDIKOVA ships from France for strong connections riding a 3 race winning streak, all being Group 1 Stakes! While trans-continental travel is always a concern when the BC is on the West Coast, this filly could prove best from a stalking posture in a competitive heat.
2ND – PRECIOUS KITTEN 9-1 JOCKEY – RAFAEL BEJARANO
This 5 year old mare trained by Bobby Frankel has but 1 victory at this distance but she’s been 2nd 5 additional times. If Bejarano can avoid a speed duel she could land a share at a decent price.
3RD – U S RANGER 18-1 JOCKEY – JOHN MURTAGH
This DANZIG colt won his first 4 lifetime starts in France, 3 of which were at this distance. It’s curious as to why his connections haven’t spotted him at the Mile distance since May of 2007. Nonetheless, he has been keeping good company in Group 1 events and if he travels well, he could win this from memory!
“SAVER” – KIP DEVILLE 7-1 JOCKEY – CORNELIO VELASQUEZ
The defending champ won this event in 2007 as my 2nd choice. He was a badly beaten favorite last out at Woodbine on September 7th over a “yielding” course and the connections hope he can rebound in a major way today. 2 for 2 at Santa Anita and 9 victories at this distance warrant inclusion in the gimmicks.
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 5
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Sex: Colts and Geldings Purse: $2,000,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: All Weather Track
1ST – GALLANT SON 14-1 JOCKEY – LESLIE MAWING
In a very contentious BC Juvenile, I’ll spot this streaking grandson of Kentucky Derby winner UNBRIDLED on top. The winner of 4 straight against lesser, he showed marked speed figure progression when stretched to a route last out and he may be poised to tackle the best in the division with a good stalking trip from an inside post. Works since last suggest synthetics shouldn’t pose a problem.
2ND – SQUARE EDDIE 6-1 JOCKEY – RAFAEL BEJARANO
This SMART STRIKE colt captured the Breeders’ Futurity at this distance at Keeneland last out beating some of these. Proven at the distance and on synthetics, the only concern is the potential “Euro bounce” 2nd time out off the transatlantic trip.
3RD – BUSHRANGER 5-1 JOCKEY – JOHN MURTAGH
All week I anticipated spotting this DANETIME colt on top following back to back Group 1 victories in Great Britain and France. His 4 victories have come at 4 different tracks but he was mistreated at the post draw and would have to be much the best to score from the 12 hole.
“SAVER” – TERRAIN 12-1 JOCKEY – JAMIE THERIOT
This SKY MESA gelding ran 2nd in the Breeders’ Futurity behind SQUARE EDDIE while encountering traffic in the stretch. The jockey will need to employ the stalking tactics in evidence earlier on in order to be in position to move forward the 2nd time trying this distance.
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 6
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Sex: Colts and Geldings Purse: $1,000,000
Distance: One Mile
Surface: Turf
1ST – WESTPHALIA 9-2 JOCKEY – JOHN MURTAGH
Juveniles going a flat mile on the grass and a couple of the “figure” horses drew widest of all. I’ll take a stab with this European shipper following a victory in a Group 2 event last out. Drawn well in the 3 hole, Murtagh will need to keep in touch with the field early on and make a well timed move toward the front somewhere mid-stretch.
2ND – SKIPADATE 7-1 JOCKEY – SHAUN BRIDGEMOHAN
This improving son of SKIP AWAY is 2 “heads” away from being a perfect 3-3 on the turf. Positioned just inside the 2 who have beaten him, he will need to take another step forward to justify this rating.
3RD – NINTH CLIENT 18-1 JOCKEY – JULIEN LEPAROUX
In a race lacking much in the way of confirmed frontrunners, this D. Wayne Lukas trainee may be in front for a long ways under a hustling Leparoux!
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 7
Sentient Flight Breeders' Cup Sprint
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $2,000,000
Distance: Six Furlongs
Surface: All Weather Track
1ST – FATAL BULLET 6-1 JOCKEY – EURICO DA SILVA
At 5 for 5 at the distance and 7 for 8 on synthetics, this Kentucky shipper drew outside and should be able to stalk an honest pace while saving something for the stretch run. His regular rider tags along and he could be poised to get his 4th straight victory!
2ND – BLACK SEVENTEEN 16-1 JOCKEY – CLINTON POTTS
I told all who would listen that I “singled” this horse in gimmicks last out when he won the Grade 1 Vosburgh at 23-1. 4 for 8 at this sprint distance, he won’t get the moisture in the track that led me to him that day. Nonetheless, a “bullet” work October 12th suggests he retains his good form and he should get a good stalking trip under a former Penn National jockey who has made the transition to the big circuit.
3RD – IN SUMMATION 11-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
Prolific winner at the track and distance was beaten by a couple in here in the Ancient Title last out. A better post draw today should insure a smooth stalking trip and a shot at turning the tables on his recent conquerors.
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 8
Emirates Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $3,000,000
Distance: One And One Half Miles
Surface: Turf
1ST – GRAND COUTURIER 7-1 JOCKEY – ALAN GARCIA
In a very intriguing edition of the 12 furlong BC Turf, this 3 time Grade 1 winner gets the call. 5 for 8 at the distance, he should be able to save ground early on behind a moderate pace and he may be running fastest of all in the sprint to the wire.
2ND – OUT OF CONTROL 10-1 JOCKEY – GARRETT GOMEZ
While he has never been this marathon distance, OUT OF CONTROL has run well over the local sod and he should be prominent throughout stalking a lone pacesetter herein.
3RD - SOLDIER OF FORTUNE 5-1 JOCKEY – JOHN MURTAGH
This 2 time Group 1 winner has won races at 5 different courses attesting to his versatility and class. 3rd in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last out, he comes here in good form and he’ll likely get “1st run” on the tiring pacesetter from a favorable post draw.
“SAVER” – RED ROCK CANYON 40-1 JOCKEY – C. O’DONOGHUE
It’s hard to imagine a son of ROCK OF GIBRALTER out of a SADLERS WELLS mare would be winless after 17 grass tries but indeed that is the case with this 4 year old who has been used largely as a “rabbit” by his connections. He has actually banked nearly 100K in keeping good company while going 0-3 at this distance but he has been in the trifecta 9 times, lifetime! He looks to be absolute lone speed herein and if a couple others falter, he might complete the superfecta at huge odds!
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25th, 2008 - Race 9
Breeders' Cup Classic
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Purse: $5,000,000
Distance: One And One Fourth Miles
Surface: All Weather Track
1ST – CHAMPS ELYSEES 21-1 JOCKEY – ALAN GARCIA
In one of the most competitive Classic fields in memory, this race seems destined for an upset and I believe this 5 year old son of DANEHILL may be the one! Not surprisingly, he has earned a small fortune in an 18 race career on turf but it is his lone try on the Santa Anita synthetic track that points out his potential today. Last March 1st in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, this runner broke slowly from his rail post position dropping an insurmountable number of lengths off the pace. As a result, he effectively encountered traffic in the late stages of the race but still came on to finish 3rd. He turns back while going “turf to synthetic” and will likely add blinkers following a strong work over the surface on 10-20-08 while wearing same. Outside post doesn’t concern me as Garcia should drop into the rail early on and come on strong when the serious running begins. Upset special from LARRY’S PICKS!
2ND – GO BETWEEN 6-1 JOCKEY – GARRETT GOMEZ
As the winner of the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar last out, jockey Gomez stays here when he likely had choices. He rode my top pick the last 2 times including in a Grade 1 victory in Canada and he broke my heart when he rallied COLONEL JOHN to a nose victory over my Travers selection, MAMBO IN SEATTLE! Never out of the exacta in 6 tries over the surface, he’ll have no excuses from his rail post draw.
3RD – CURLIN 7-5 JOCKEY – ROBBY ALBARADO
The reigning BC Classic champion and Horse Of The Year needs no introduction. With 7 Grade 1 wins and strong works over this new surface, ignore him at your own risk!
I think this is where Michael from the office would say, "That's what she said". All jokes aside, thanks again Larry for the detailed and insightful post. I always look forward to reading your thoughts before the Triple Crown races and the Breeder's Cup. Love the longshot picks, and hope you bring a bunch of them home come race time.