Even though two year olds are often lightly raced at this time of year it has still show to be very bad for 2yo’s to come into the cup off big tops. I don’t expect the turf race to prove to be much different that the dirt counterparts in that effect. We do see a high % of 2 yo fillies run well in the BC after “off” preps. A little less so with the male 2yo’s on dirt and I would expect like the turf classic it would be even rarer here.
1 Ninth Client - Julien Leparoux 15-1 ~ Top = 11.25, Last = 11.25 (3pt top) ~ He’ll be hard pressed to consummate this pursuit. Impotent speed figs coming in will leave him spent at the quarter pole. Pass.
2 City Style - Tony McNeil 20-1 ~ Top = 10, Last = 10 (1.25pt top) ~ It’s not very often you see a horse go from MCL25k, to N1X, to STK undefeated. The start was humble but he is by a solid turf sire and a good 2yo sire in City Zip. His dam was a two time stakes winner as well. I’m not sure the race he vet scratched from prior to his first start, but they probably didn’t have much to fear in loosing him after that. 5 weeks rest and inside post are pluses. Hoping for a jockey change though. Win contender.
3 Westphalia (IRE) - John Murtagh 5-1 ~ Top = 9, Last = 9 (1 pt top) ~ Euro is half to a couple multiple stakes winning US based horses, and recently moved to the O’Brien barn. He was running solid numbers in July and making measured forward moves. He’s had a good break into this and another small move isn’t impossible. Someone will make a big move though, and I don’t see him being the one. Playable in exotics.
4 Donativum (GB) - Frankie Dettori 6-1 ~ Top = 8.25, Last = 8.25 (3.75pt top)~ Ran a big top last time out 3 weeks ago. He’s improved over 11 points since his first start. He does have a couple siblings who have had success in the US, but its unlikely he will be able to run back to the last race, and he would need to to get a piece. Pass
5 Relatively Ready - Cornelio Velasquez 12-1 ~ Top = 11.25, Last = 11.25 (paired top) ~ Has run two decent figs on turf despite having trouble and missing the break the first time, and having to deal with a really slow pace and yield surface the second. Tough to say what he will do in his first try on a firm turf course. He’s got a solid pattern though, and Cornelio can pull off some terrific turf rides. So despite the slowish figs to date he is playable in exotics.
6 Vaquero - Kent Desormeaux 20-1 ~ Top = 9 (poly), Last = 9.5 ~ Blossomed in going 2 turns in Kentucky for this low % barn. Pattern is OK, and so is the pedigree. He comes in on only 3 weeks rest, and has a habit of loosing a lot of ground. Borderline playable in exotics.
7 Coronet of a Baron - Alan Garcia 9-1 ~ Top = 5(poly), Last = 6(poly) ~ Half million dollar 2yo sale of this son of pure prize has already made someone a good ROI. He must have looked like a million bucks. So far he hasn’t embarrassed anyone though, running 3 solid figs on poly. He hasn’t run yet on turf though, and there isn’t much turf breeding behind him. Harty also is only 8% with first time turf horses. He will probably be able to outpace the couple other who like to do some early running and is inside of them. Could be a wire job. Win contender.
8 Paddy The Pro (IRE) - Garrett Gomez 15-1 ~ Top = 10.75 (poly), Last = 10.75 (poly) (2.25pt top) ~ Big top last out to a number to slow to be competitive. Pass
9 Orthodox - Jon Court 20-1 ~ Top = 13.75, Last = 13.75 (1 pt top) ~ Ran a 1 pt top in his first turf try last time out. It would take a really big jump up to get close here. Pass
10 Skipadate - Shaun Bridgmohan 6-1 ~ Top = 5.5, Last = 5.5 (4.25 pt top) ~ I have a hard time believing he and Grand Adventure both ran huge tops up at Woodbine. Maybe Tim Horton’s donuts and not steroids should be banned? His prior numbers are borderline and he comes back on short rest and drew way outside. Pass
11 Bittel Road - John Velazquez 7-2 ~ Top = 10.25, Last = 10.25 ~ Interesting Pletcher charge ran wire to wire at 6f, and closed late going 2 turns. He has the pattern I’m looking for with the paired top, and could be set to run his big one. Wish he had an extra week and the price was better, but still he is a win contender.
12 Grand Adventure - Rafael Bejarano 5-1 ~ Top = 4.5, Last = 4.5 (5.75pt top) ~ See #10. Pass
13AE Mark S the Cooler - Frankie Dettori 20-1 ~ Top = 8.25 (poly), Last = 8.25 (poly) (1 start) ~ Ran a nice fig first time out for O’Neill, who usually doesn’t get down to business until second out. His dam didn’t do much but his dad Johar won the BC Turf at SA, so there is no reason to think he won’t like it. 4 weeks rest should be good enough. If he gets in he’s a win contender.
Summary
Win Contenders: City Style, Coronet of a Baron, Bittel Road, (AE)Mark S the Cooler
Playable in exotics: Westphalia, Relatively Ready, Vaquero
