There's some really good analysis going on in several threads here (as is always the case on UIC this time of year). I wanted to start a thread for quickies regarding key type horses, they may not win, but tough to keep off the board and won't be favorites.
F/M Sprint
Zaftig - She's working up a storm since having time from an injury that didn't require surgery. This distance sits right in her wheel house and she should get a good stalking trip. Even with the loss of Indyanne there's still lots of pace on tap. Look for her to use the tactical advantage to cave in Indian Blessing mid-stretch.
Juvie Filly Turf
Renda - This gal has an absolutely gorgeous pattern 'graphs with a small top last out which often spells a significant move forward (same angle gave me so much confidence in Street Sense in '06). She's never tried turf, but notice her connections tried to get her on turf, but the race washed off at Mth. Also, take note of that 6f work in 1:11 n/c over the Calder turf, that is VERY unusual for Calder. She's shipping from Florida so warm weather shouldn't bother her. Should sit second off Laragh and have first shot to hold off the closers.
Juvie Fillies
C.S. Silk - See Lance's Juvie Fillies thread, he says it all.
Marathon
Delightful Kiss - Has been reinvigorated since finding the fake stuff and has been working up an absolute storm. He's the fastest in the race on 'graphs and a repeat of his last wins this in handy fashion. Also, for such a long distance race the ground saving tendencies of Bo-rail further enhance his chances.
Dirt Mile
Lewis Michael - I'm very familiar with these connections and they're not coming just cuz. He's been pointed to this since his turn in the Pat O' Brien unlike others who will be favored who opted here in the days leading up to the race. Rail draw with this track configuration is huge as he'll save all the ground. He always fires his race on fake stuff, pointed to the race, working well, saves ground....doesn't get much easier than that.
Sprint
Fabulous Strike - The scratch of J Be K is huuuge here, JBK was the only runner in here who can run the 1st quarter with FB, he now will have a slightly easier time than he would have. He very well could be inhaled by Midnight Lute or Street Boss, but they'll catch hell getting him out of the exacta, could very well runaway and hide.
Ok, who else has some? Conflicting opinions are welcome!!!
Turf - Dancing Forever. No way Shug ships out if he doesn't feel he's got a shot. Throw out his last two with give in the ground. He'll get the footing he wants on Saturday. The race goes through the Euros, but at a price, this guy is live. Last work was visually strong.
Small side note with him. He faced similar conditions with serious heat and an extremely firm turf course in his Manhattan win on Belmont day.
Classic - I love Champs Elysees to run a big race. No offense to Curlin. If he likes the surface he'll probably roll. If he doesn't, it's anyone's race.
Champs looked awesome in his work with blinkers the other day. Very strong while on the muscle without strong rider encouragement.
Without much pace in the race along with the addition of blinkers, I expect Garcia to get Champs good position out of the gate. I'm trusting my gut with this one personally. Conceding the race to Curlin at odds on while racing on a synthetic surface for the 1st time, in the Breeders' Cup no less, just isn't my style. I think Champs can be there at the wire.
87% Dirt Mile - I'm with you on Lewis Michael. Using him and Well Armed and feeling supremely confident.
Mile - No clue how Goldikova will handle the conditions, but she obviously has supreme class and ability. Kip Deville should trip out well from his inside post.
Will also be using Daytona and War Monger. Daytona has been training superbly. On the muscle and ready to roll. If he clears off of Precious Kitten and Thorn Song, he may last around a while.
I've been a War Monger fan for too long. Very apparent that he likes it as firm as possible which he'll get on Saturday. His post isn't great, but if Daytona does gets pressure up front, the Monger should be tucked in just behind the 1st flight. At a price, he's on my tickets.
Juvenile - I'll stand alone with Midshipman and Bushranger. 2nd time on the stretchout for Midshipman with a switch to Gomez. Good enough for me.
We'll see if Bushranger is the goods. I'll use him at a hint of a price.
No thank you on Munnings as the m/l fave. I question if he wants to go this far right now. I'll also take a pass on Square Eddie. He freaked against a subpar field. He can win, but he'll have to do it without me.
Juvenile Turf - The classic spread and survive race for me.
Best of luck to everyone.
This message has been edited by Boozer_1 on Oct 23, 2008 11:28 PM
Reggie, I'll take a shot but not much of a difference of opinion:
Ventura is my best bet of the weekend in the F&M Sprint but Intangaroo and Zaftig in the tri for sure.
In the Juvy Fillies, no arguement with Renda but Consequence is looking good.
In the Juvy Fillies, CS Silk for sure! With Sky Diva and Stardom Bound, and Be Smart. Black Magic Mama if I go deeper.
F&M Turf: Love Wait A While but no price so looking at Visit who I think will be a star next year here. Might as well make this her coming out party.
Call me crazy and again, maybe more my heart than head, but I think Santa Teresita has a real shot in the Distaff if Guillout has her ready. Doubt she can beat Zenyatta but if you can bookend the shortest price on the day with the longest in the exacta, not a bad deal.
On Saturday:
Turf Sprint: Fleeting Spirit. She beat much better in Europe than she'll see here. No reason not to use One Union either.
Dirt Mile: Well Armed, Lewis Michael and My Pal Charlie for my tri.
Mile: Goldikova to win but using Precious Kitten in the 2nd spot and Daytona and Whatsthesript to complete the tri.
Juvy: Not alone Mike, I am all about Midshipman and Bushranger
Sprint: All Fabulous Strike, end of story.
Turf: Dancing Forever
Classic: Lone speed on the lead, say goodbye to Fairbanks or atleast he hangs on for a big piece at a big price. Serious win contender, Go Between in a big way.
This message has been edited by DOsborne on Oct 23, 2008 11:33 PM
F&M Sprint - I absolutely love Ventura, so does everyone else west Belmont Park apparently. Her 5-1 ML appears to be a pipe dream. The loss of Indyanne hurt her chances a bit, but this filly has strung several excellent races together from coast to coast, plastic to dirt. Her race at Keeneland was exceptional and her effort last out vs. the boys was very game. She gets a good enough draw and the pace should still be hot enough to set up for her kick. Gomez starts of BC day with a win.
Marathon - Zappa freaked when he was able to make an easy lead at Del Mar. This race is relatively paceless with Booyah as the only pace danger. I think Gomez will send him from the gate, hope he settles, and give the closers way too much to do.
JVFT: Put me on the Laragh bandwagon. I think she can wire the field.
JVF: I like Evita ARgentina to make some noise at a price.
FMT: Love me some Mauralakana. I see her getting the same trip she got in the Bev D.
Marathon: Hate the race, not a BC type field, but I like Cedar Mountain mostly for the Drysdale connection.
Turf Sprint: I like Fleeting Sprirt I think she gets a nice ground saving trip on the rail and has the burst at the end.
Dirt Mile: I Love Well Armed. Super Horse. Can he shorten up? I think he can.
Mile: Best race of the day. I like Thorn Song but hate the post. I will go with Whatsthescript. Awful name, but he should be in the best position to make his run at the end.
Juvy: Street Hero. 6-1? Really? I hope he stays there but I imagine he will be bet down. Win on the course at the distance, answers a lot of questions we are asking about the others.
Juvy Turf: fah, I don't care. Snack break.
Sprint: See, I hate the exapnsion because it makes the Sprint field smaller. I take the chalk.Street Boss
Turf: Winchester at 15-1? I'll take it.
For me and my pick-3's/pick-4s, the two Mile races will be ultra-important, because I feel I can go relatively shallow in these -- three deep in each -- and dive deeper elsewhere. Here's my take:
BC Mile:
In a race that almost always requires some luck to win, I'm going with a horse who won’t need to negotiate his way through traffic: Daytona. He’s three for three on the Santa Anita grass and figures to get a great trip stalking Thorn Song, who will be forced to gun to the front from his outside spot. Of the rest, Kip Deville is always dangerous, and the 3-year-old filly Goldikova will be tough to deny with a clean run. Whatsthescript’s last was awesome, but on Saturday he’ll be forced with a terrible post and no ‘roids in his system. I'm using Daytona, Kip and the filly.
BC Dirt Mile:
I see this as a three-horse race, with Well Armed strictly the one to beat. The two potential upsetters are Lewis Michael and Albertus Maximus.
Only had time to look at this last night for the first time so no Sat. races done yet.
Filly Mare Sprint: Won't try to beat Indian Blessing but really like Miraculous Miss who has danced all of the big ones and always puts in a nice run. Adding the locals Tiz Elemental and Dearest Trickski underneath for options as a late runner (From the trainer who brought you Nashoba's key) and the speed of Trickski especially now that Indyanne is gone. Went tri singling IB on top.
JVFT: C Karma and REnda (love the sire) on top with Sugar Momn, Consetquence and Saucey Evening underneath. Karma won the race in Canada that was the springboard for Laragh. I am guessing/hoping it turns to be a KEY race.
JVF: Its all about Csilk and Doremefahso. Too bad we can't get the NY caller in for a cameo call on this one. Those two top the tri with Persistently, Dream Empress, Be Smart and stardom. Underneath. Special mention to Palacio de amour who is a speedy sort who has acquitted herself very well twice to Stardom bound. if they happen to juice the track look out she could be long gone.
FMT: Love Mauralakana as well. . Pure Clan is a nice one too if she can run back to some of those she ran in her back class.
Marathon: don't care. sorry.
"Classic - I love Champs Elysees to run a big race. No offense to Curlin. If he likes the surface he'll probably roll. If he doesn't, it's anyone's race.
Champs looked awesome in his work with blinkers the other day. Very strong while on the muscle without strong rider encouragement.
Without much pace in the race along with the addition of blinkers, I expect Garcia to get Champs good position out of the gate. I'm trusting my gut with this one personally. Conceding the race to Curlin at odds on while racing on a synthetic surface for the 1st time, in the Breeders' Cup no less, just isn't my style. I think Champs can be there at the wire".
I love the company on this one, Mike! I'll be extremely surprised if Champs Elysees doesn't run well as my top pick in the Classic.
Other Saturday runners I see as trifecta price boosters are Surf Cat (my 2nd selection) in the Dirt Mile and my top pick Grand Couturier in the Turf. Hopefully I'll be alive after the first 2 legs of the late pick 4 but if not, I'll crush my cold late DD selections looking for about 150-1 odds!
Kind of glad I stayed away for the ladies events.I'd have been buried.
Three stickouts for me in the Cup races Saturday:
Marathon-Delightful Kiss
Dirt Mile-Lew Michaels
Sprint-Lute
Like both Mandella horses in the Late Double-that guy always seems to get paid on these big days.Into Mischief in the 10th and the Dixie horse from the rail in the nightcap.
Not real keen on the Euro's in the heat-it's a real disadvantage.
