What did we learn yesterday? Going into yesterday we had already learned 2 things. 1) Most turf horses can handle the ProRide as well as they handle grass and most dirt horses couldn't handle the ProRide as well as they handled the dirt. 2)Curlin had previously lost to Red Rocks on the turf.
Yesterday Curlin tried to handle a surface that turfers love and dirt horses hate. The result was predictable to some. This loss by Curlin should, in no way, minimize what he has accomplished on dirt but it might have just cost him the HOY award.
What can we expect to realize from all this? More Euros coming over for the ProRide BC next year and taking more BC glory home with them. 2010 at CD will be a different story.
The ProRide seemed to be very consistant and they didn't need to water it anytime between races. Either ProRide is the closest thing we've found to grass yet or there is a strong closer's bias at SA. This is another wake up call to American breeders. Trainers with turf horses used to have to scramble looking for races for those horses in some venues - ProRide and other AWs give them a lot more options when looking for bigger purses, and with AWs popping up all over NA, the competition will be thinned out and the handicapping will be easier - abeit with shorter prices.
I only cashed on two races yesterday for a total of $600 and went home a loser. Most of that ($500+) was on the winner of the Marathon. I never could get a handle on the AW surfaces so I rarely played them. Next year I will be better prepared and a lot more confident in my handicapping.
The Bobtail
If you don't want the genie to pop up - don't rub the lamp.
First off I haven't heard any reports from the barns but I didn't witness any horses breaking down on television so that's a good thing for Pro Ride. Secondly I have to disagree about that the surface hurt dirt horses.It might have helped grass horse but doesn't that increase competition? On Friday INDIAN BLESSING ran a heck of a race but ran into a monster older mare in VENTURA. SKY DIVA for the Juvenile fillies finished third but two fillies that figured beat her out in STARDOM BOUND and DREAM EMPRESS. In the Ladies Classic, the race ran to form. ZENYATTA did her thing and the two Godolphin horses followed with good efforts.That was a field full of stars and the results were not shocking. The Marathon was s crapshoot at a distance that is rarely tried and without a proven dirt horse. The same can be said for the mile as a true dirt horse didn't compete unless you count the two three year olds PYRO and MY PAL CHARLIE. The three year olds weren't much to speak of in any race this year anyway. Otherwise it was an open race. The Juvenile only real dirt horse was MUNNINGS. He was testing two turns and this distance for the first time . Being out of SPEIGHTSTOWN had to create doubts. Otherwise the outcome ran to form. The sprint race was hard to guage. Dirt horses FIRST DEFENCE didn't perform well but it was his second bad race in a ow so maybe form is dropping for him. BLACK SEVENTEEN didn't do too well but his VOSBURGH win might have been aided by slop he enjoyed. FABULOUS STRIKE definitely didn't run his race. Was it a shoe issue again? Was it the second time from a layoff against better just too much? But he definitely didn't break the way he normally does. So who knows. But MIDNIGHT LUTE was one for three on AW before yesterday. The question with him was if he breaks out of the gate without incident was going to be the horse to beat. He did and the surface didn't stop him from winning. So once FABULOUS STRIKE didn't break well FATAL BULLET being one of the few speed in the race ran his race. STREET BOSS did his usual late run but wasn't good enough this day. Finally the big one the Classic. CURLIN was based on his overall career the horse to beat. Of the remaining American horses who really stood out? The older horses personally I threw them all out for the top two spots. The older horses were average at best. The three year olds were not good at all and unproven. My mistake was drinking the synthetic juice love of COLONEL JOHN. All that remained were the Europeans. All proved they were more talented than the U.S. horse but the unknown was the surface. RAVEN'S PASS and HENRYTHENAVIGATOR even though milers at Europe as many shippers in the past shown can go further in the U.S. Toss in the fact they are respectively out of ELUSIVE QUALITY and KINGMAMBO that have sired dirt performers. As much respect there is for CURLIN and his career. Something just didn't look as dominate of his last two races. Even though he won his races he didn't show explosiveness down the lane. He finally ran down PAST THE POINT in the Woodward. He struggled even more so in the Jockey Club against WANDERIN BOY. It was a slow grind instead of his usual explosive late kick. Personally I think he was showing signs of slowing down. PRO RIDE or not last year he wins even on this surface. This year it took two good quality horses to outkick him down the lane. But to lose third to TIAGO, geez!
"PRO RIDE or not last year he wins even on this surface. This year it took two good quality horses to outkick him down the lane."
John, whether or not he would have won this race on this surface last year is pure speculation. In my book, speculation always loses to fact. The top dirt horse in the nation should be expected to run well on an AW surface and he did not - not win necessarily, just run well - get a piece of it at least. It didn't happen. We can opine about what might or might not have happened last year or what might or might not happen next year but this year the results are in. There were no excuses, no stone bruise, no "cough" the day before. No filling in an ankle; no excuse. As I posted, this loss should not diminish what he has accomplished on dirt. Some of the top Euros made the trip because now they had a fairer chance to beat the top dirt horse in the world because they wouldn't be racing on dirt. Curlin didn't go to the Arc because he showed his connections that the turf wasn't "his thing". On dirt, Curlin eats Red Rocks' lunch. Curlin is a superstar - but only on dirt. I'm glad I don't have to decide who deserves HOY this year - the colt or the filly. I'd probably give it to the colt - but I'm a chauvinist.
The Bobtail
If you don't want the genie to pop up - don't rub the lamp.
Is it really fair to compare Curlin to Secretariat? Yes, Secretariat won on dirt and turf. But, Secretariat is pretty much the measuring stick that all horses are compared to.
I would consider Curlin in the same league with horses like Cigar, Alysheba, Theatrical, and Skip Away. Four of the best of the past 25 years, but not on "Superhorse" status like Big Red, Bid, or Slew. Those four horses were good on one surface only.
