So far in two running on slop and Pro-ride only one female sprinter ran a new top (t-graph) That was Ventura last year who ran 3.5 pts better than a very good turf race the try before.  Ventura is by Chester House, I only have 3 horses in the database by him that have run on poly, but all have done very well.  

 

Back in 2006 I did a lot of study of the male sprint and it was pretty clear horses coming off huge sprint numbers faired badly.   If you want to see the original data its back on page 8 or so under Reggies thread titled Sprint   He is an update with the FM Sprint data included.  

 

3 YO Sprint T-graph patterns in the Breeders Cup (1999-2009)
Last Race prior to BC	New Top	Pair Prev. Top	2+ Pts Off Top
5+ point top	0	1	2
1-5 point top	1	1	4
pair of previous top (+/-1)	4	2	16
1-5 points off previous top	0	1	4
5+ points off previous top	0	0	1

 

 

Horses coming in off big (-1 or better efforts)  

BC Sprint figure after a -1 or better in last prep.
	New Top	Pair Prev. Top	2+ Pts Off Top
3 year olds	1	0	9
4 and up	1	6	27

 

So who did run well in the sprint, you ask?   

Sprint T-graph                         Prev. T-graph 

-2 or better in the sprint	2, 1.25, .75, .5, -.5, -2.75,-3,-7, 0.5,1.25, 4.5	avg = -.23
-1 to -1.75	2.5, 2.5, 1.25, -1, -2.5, -3.25, -3.75, 6, -1,-1.5, -4, -2, 0.75,	avg = -.46

 

Adding the new data doesnt change much, overall betting horses off big races is a rough way to go, Midnight Lute and Thors Echo came off big races to win, both were older, and lightly raced coming into the sprint, Lute making his 2^nd start off a layoff, Thor making his 3^rd.   Only 10% of 3year olds coming off big effort were able to hold it together, and 20% of older horses.  Plenty of horses who ran slow prior to the BC were able to jump up when it counted.  Some of those ran back to prior numbers some ran new tops.  Overall though 66% of horses running big numbers in the sprint did it off a slow prep. 

 

Allicansayis Wow - Biancone & Fallon what a pair Comes in off two solid runs against the boys on the turf.  Hasnt tried the pro-ride, but Street Crys have done well.  Tough to see her making the jump up shortening to 7f though.  Pass

 

Evita Argentina - 3yo Beat the boys over this trip in a G2 in Feb.  Has developed quite a bit from her 2yo numbers, she would need a new top to get a piece.  Only one 3yo coming into the sprint off an off fig was able to get back to their top, and none have run a new top.  Candy Rides look like thy do the worst on Pro-ride of all they synthetics too.  Could see using on the very bottom of a dime super but for the most part Ill Pass

 

Free Flying Soul - Hasn't done all that much, but does have the second (distant 2^nd) best t-graph fig over the surface.  Shes been lightly raced and got back to her top last time out.  Her dam was a G2 winner at 7f, and her trainer knows how to get a good sprinter.  A new to is possible, which might be enough to get a piece.  Headly worked her back off the race 3f after 10 days, then 6 days to a 6f work in 1:11.2.  Must be feeling good.  Maybe she can channel up some Kona Gold on Friday.  Useable in exotics

 

Game Face - Owner of the fastest T-graph fig in the race, it came 2 back.  He last was her only try over anything but dirt and it wasnt good.  Minifees have been their best over dirt, and quite a bit worse on everything else, except pro-ride but of the 3 that tried it ran well.  Two of those did better on other synthetics, and neither of those tried dirt.  Kind of a mixed bag, but shes had good time off and will be a price. Usable in exotics

 

Informed Decision  - Ventured into negative territory last time.  It was a small top, but those numbers take their toll and this will be her 4^th race in about 10 weeks.  If she draws outside she has a habit of loosing ground too.  If she draws inside I might have to protect underneath, but otherwise Pass

 

Only Green - Freddie Head ships over this 3yo filly, to try the pro-ride.  She has a win in her only try over a poly track.  Last was 1.75 pt top, to a solid euro turf sprint number.  She has showed a change in tactic last time, which would suit her well to stick with.   If she takes to the pro-ride she could be dangerous.  3yos dont run new tops in the sprint, but we havent had much if any Euros, they have run a lot of tops in the Turf coming over.  At the price Im inclined to rely more on the euro number stat from the turf/mile than the US based sprinters.   If you are a pedigree nut, go back to her second dam Fall Aspen and start looking at some of the progeny she produced.  Some serious horses Contender

 

Sara Louise - Big Blue is on fire, and this 3yo filly has run 2 monsters in NY.  Malibu Moon does as well on pro-ride as dirt, but those two huge efforts off the long layoff will take a toll.  I cant see her being 10-1 maybe half.  Either way a lot of really good ones have looked like this on paper and gone down in flames. Remember La Triviata? PASS

 

Seventh Street - Steady mare shortens up for this, but has run some big races going 1 turn too.  Bottom side says she should be better sprinting & Street Crys have done well on this track.  She paired her top last time, but didnt get to the big fig territory.  Should be sitting on go here. Contender

 

Silver Swallow - Has the connections and is constant, but has never run a fig that would seriously challenge in here, and it would be tough to see a new top, which is rare anyway in this, off a 3 month layoff from a 5 yo. PASS

 

Sweet Hearth - OUT of both

 

Ventura -Last years winner back to attempt a repeat, shes coming in 2^nd off the layoff from her best turf race fig.  The sprint last year was her only fig that could win this, her other try on the track was OK off a 3 month layoff.  Maybe she wasnt cranked, maybe she was.  The 0.5 is in the range of turf figs that are real knockouts, for a filly to run that off a layoff is both impressive and a great bet against next time.  Males running a negitiv eon turf are like 90% to bounce 4 pts next out, for a mare a 0.5 is too close to the danger zone for me.  PASS OK not really, Ill to include her a little bit in the p3/4 but not much.

 

Summary:

Contenders: Only Green, Seventh Street  

Useable: Free Flying Soul, Game Face

Thanks in advance for all these analyses, elk. They're great and extremely helpful.

Elk - Interesting analysis, but I have to disagree. I personally think Ventura and Informed Decision look very solid in this spot. Ventura not only won the race last year, but she destroyed the field. She is a world class filly. Informed Decision never lost on synthetics. I personally think that only one horse has the chance to upset these and that is Sarah Louise IF she really takes to the Pro Ride. I mean she did beat RA one before. Looks like a pretty chalky race.

Agree as I feel this is very chalky and will be a 3 horse battle between Ventura, Informed Decision, and Seventh Street. You'll be able to make a little money boxing those 3 in the tri so that's likely going to be my play.

I think you'll be able to get 6-1 or better on Seventh Street if you fancy her. Sara Louise is an easy toss on the expected bounce, a case can be made that with Informed Decisions running style that she's likely to lose ground and based on her soft figs is certainly no bargain. Ventura looks pretty bullet proof, don't think there's much chance of beating her out of at least 2nd. I'd make Seventh Street and Ventura my top two.

-BB

Why would Sarah Louise bounce? She is making her 3rd start of the year and as a 3 year old. I believe she is very talented and the only question mark is will she handle the Pro Ride. Informed Decision has won 10 out of 13 races, 6 for 6 on synthetics and has beaten ventura on synthetics before. So I personally don't have any questions when it comes to Informed Decision. I give ventura the nod because its her home track and she is the defending champion, but the two I listed above are two very good horses.

Sara Louise bounces because she's come off the shelf and run two monster figures, the last of which was accomplished while dueling the length of the stretch with Indian Blessing. So even if we excuse the two big neg figs, the stretch duel 2nd off the shelf is never a recipe for improving its a recipe for a falling apart especially for a filly, regardless of quality, who obviously has some soundness issues. The reason I'm inclined to give Ventura the nod over Informed Decision is because Ventura (when she's right) is faster and earlier in the year Frankel's barn was going terribly, so I don't put a ton of stock in that Keenland victory. Lately Frankel's barn has been turning it around and as you aptly pointed out Ventura has the homecourt advantage. Just my 0.02.

-BB

Personally I don't really buy in to the bounce theory. Sarah Louise ran to big figs simply because she A) is a good horse B) she is a older horse than she was last year in which 2 year olds normaly get lower figs just because they are 2. Yes she had a hard race with indian blessing, but that was Sept 26, she has had plenty of time to recover from that, not to mention with only 2 races this year and Godolphine having a very good year in america, she should be ready to run a good race as long as she handles the pro ride.

If you are that confident in Sara Louise, I say bet her with both fists. Reports are she is taking to the Pro-Ride well enough (think she worked 4f in :47 or so), but tend to side with Reggie in that she's a bounce candidate and I won't be using. . Great run against Indian Blessing last out although she couldn't get by, but I don't think Indian Blessing is the same as a few she will face in here. If this race were 6f, maybe I'd consider a bit more but not a 7f against the likes of what she will face Friday. Of course, that's the logic that gets you nice prices on very nice horses come the Breeders Cup.

I haven't handicapped the race yet, but did anyone see Ventura's last work? Easily one of the best workouts you will ever see. It was that good. She appears to be on edge.

Saw the workout and the barn says she is even better this year than last. That $7.60 she paid last year in winning will be a pipe dream this year. I'd guess she'll be no higher than 7/5. Informed Decision will take a little money given her synthetic record but no Indian Blessing to take the action like last year.

I think she will be the biggest favorite on the card both days. I cant find a negative with this filly, she is just world class. Not a great betting race. How much money do you put into a race trying to beat a very solid favorite? Pick 3 and Pick 4 may be the way to go, but it would be nice to have a live ticket IF ventura lost.

Going through the BC archives at T-graph.com... 

 

102 times a horse ran a 1 on better, 81 times the next race was worse.  On average 2 points worse. 

 

If you look at the females there have been 10 to run a 1 or better (Forever Together was 3 of them), and only Forever Together didnt bounce, but she did the two other times.  The average for the females was 2.6 pts worse off that race.

 

I also have some other questions

Where was she for 5 months this summer?

Why not run her in the Mile for twice the money if she is doing so great?

Why was she changing leads at the wire last time?

 

Can't seem to get a chart to post so here are some noteable names to think about...

Gorella, La Traviata, Benny the Bull, To Much Bling, Henny Hughes, Lost in the Fog, Aldebaran

Allicansayiswow will not go in this race now having come out of her work yesterday in poor order according to trainer Patrick Biancone.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/108620.html
On the edit, a little more info from the DRF as it is suspected the injury is to a suspensory.

As for Ventura, she was just resting up according to the farm for a fresh run at this race. She ran in the Woodbine Mile last year as a prep for the F&M Sprint so following the same pattern this year. According to Juddmonte's Garret O'Rouke, the Mile was considered but only briefly as they decided to go for the repeat in this race and feel she is better at 7f making one late run. Not sure about the switching leads but didn't seem to bother anyone on either Works show.

She is rock solid, nothing to knock about her. This race is a small field, did not come up all that tough, she will be tough to deny and I personally hate betting favorites. The mile turf witht he Euro's in there is a whole lot tougher, they made the right choice by sticking with the sprint.