The $5,000,000 Breeders Cup Classic. You heard it here first. It's an awful year for the males in 2009 ya'll. When Zenyatta loops the field next Saturday and wins the Classic, it'll officially designate 2009 as Delilah's Revenge. Peace, CB, aka De Desperado de Santa Cruz.
She's fresh, talented, at home on the synthetic and getting added distance for the first time. Not to mention physically bigger than her male counterparts getting a weight concession. I don't normally bet fillies against the boys on the main going long, but if Jolypha could finish 3rd to A.P. Indy & Pleasant Tap and Jolypha ain't no Zenyatta, why the heck can't Zenyatta beat these with nothing the likes of Indy & Tap in there? Eat your PP's Reggie. She's Winning!!!!!!!!!!!! The $5M Classic.
As mentioned above the males this year especially older is in a down year. With that I think a European will do it again just a matter of will it be a taste of Shepard's Pie, Croissant or Corned Beef
IF she wins the Classic she will be the slowest horse probably to ever win it, not to mention the slowest horse in the race itself. I guess in racing anything is possible considering Mine that bird won the derby and he was the slowest in the race. Maybe that is a new angle to play, just play the slow horse.
To be fair, measuring ability in a racehorse on synthetics isn't as easy as looking at a final time speed figure. It's very much like turf racing with how races develop and how pace can hinder the final time. Trip, finishing ability, track profile relative to running style at the distance, and pace figures to a lesser extent need to be incorporated as well. It's not as clear cut as dirt.
With that said, I do believe there are several "faster" horses more likely to win relative to their price, but I do expect her to make her presence felt at some point late.
Robert, you're objectivity is nice. Now you're belittling a victory in the Classic before there's a victory, before there's even a race. Never mind that it's a better field than Rachel has faced, or a classic distance, or the World Championship against the best horses in training worldwide. YOU'VE decided it ahead of time it wouldn't matter. Pretty much sums up the anti-Zenyatta point of view if you ask me.
One other thing I'll add that isn't necessarily related to this thread, but that's never stopped me before. I haven't hidden my adoration for the Shirreffs and Moss team in the past, but this game would be MUCH better off if we had more trainers like John Shirreffs and more owners like Jerry and Ann Moss.
Also not related, but let's not forget that they shipped Zenyatta out to Churchill Downs for her 1st start this year on Oaks day, but scratched her due to the sloppy track conditions which I can't blame them for.
I actually need the Zenyatta-hate to get my price around 3-1 because the ladies are going to bet her off the board. Spread the word Robert, pardon me, Mr. Speed Figures. Thanks. CB, aka, De Desperado de Santa Cruz.
I think you'll get 3-1, no less than 5/2 there CB. Sure some of the gals might bet her, but Rip is going to get a ton of buzz and should be 3-1, 5/2 as well. O'Brien is on record as saying Rip Van Winkle is the best horse he has ever trained and that is a strong statement right there!!!Summer Bird is slated to open at 9/2 but I think he'll actually go up a bit say 6-1 or so, with everyone else in the field in double digits. Barring a bad draw, it doesn't take a "genius" to figure out which horse will win this race though....
I don't hate Zenyatta. I'm just calling it how I see it. She is slow and is overrated. She is a good horse, but not great. Sure she has her chance to prove me wrong, mr. beyer wrong and muli others. IF she wins the classic I will tip my hate off to her and call her great, because that is what it will take for her to win. Someone said that this field is stronger than anything RA has faced. Talent 1 through 12 yes, but beating Summer Bird on DIRT in the mud is not the easiest thing to do, Also holding off the derby winner while breaking from the outside post to win the preakness which is a race farther than Zenyatta has ever ran. I cannot understand why someone would be willing to take 5-2 on a FILLY racing against the males for the 1st time at a distance she has never ran, while appearing slower on paper, against the toughest horses she has ever been around.
PS: I always thought it was funny, Zenyatta was at churchill Oaks day. RA wins the Oaks by 20+ in a handride and Zenyatta camp left churchill and never came anywhere close to RA again. Coincidence? I think NOT
All Zenyatta has to is run back to that 1:46 4/5 she dropped in the BC Ladies Classic last year and she'll be right there come the final furlong in 2009 BC Classic.
Dead closers are generally not favored by added distance. I expect that will be the case here. Just another furlong to run slower for this gal.
The matchup I'd really like to see is the one between the two unbeaten 13-13's, Zenyatta and Personal Ensign. On a traditional dirt surface, no contest there.
Provided Rip Van Winkle is in top form and is suited by the surface he has so much in hand over this field he should not be beaten.If he had been spot on through the year it is very possible he would have beaten Sea The Stars in the Coral Eclipse Stakes.
In the Eclipse, didn't Rip get floated wide by Sea the Stars just when about to make his run, have to switch inside and wait on to clear a horse, getting stopped again, before finally getting clear and making his real run?
I love Zenyatta and think she's amazing specimen and competitor. The first time I saw her in person, my jaw dropped. I love the fact her connections are taking a shot in the Classic, and I think she'll acquit herself quite well. But given her running style, I just think she really has her work cut out for her in this big field. There's no way Smith will risk getting her stuck behind traffic, so he'll swing her wide as usual -- and I see her being 7 or 8 wide turning for home.
For me, she's a play against at a short price. But I like the fact that you're taking a stand, Croix Boy. Best of luck.
CB 1:46 n/c actually looks pretty pedestrian when fillies had just run 7f in 1:19 4/5, her race last year will have her finishing in 7th. Sheriffs needs to go back in time and transport the Apple Blossom version of Z to the present, last year's BC version ain't gonna get a check.
Zenyatta has a shot, but I think she'll most likely finish 3rd or 4th.
As to who will win....I'm still going to have to go like 5,6 deep in my P3 tickets.
(singling Presious Passion in the race before, working around that angle.)
I would play Zenyatta if I could get 6-1 but that obviously AIN'T gonna happen.
Right now, leaning toward Summer Bird, and Einstein.
Thanx Lance. I always thought she was something extra-special and I'm glad her connections gave her a chance to prove just that. BTW, if you see Robert, aka DBLAKERS, let him know that CB De Desperado "ain't feeling no way" as we say down here in the islands. I just thought that his depiction of an undefeated horse who had won 13 in a row as being slow and overrated was somewhat extreme and severely lacking objectivity. I've been around this game long enough to know when running comes easy to a horse and Zeyatta is the epitome of that. If effect she's a synthetic horse, who has a classic European grass style, that happened to do the same thing the only time she raced on dirt. Need I remind folks that her only dirt start was in her 4th career start, the 2008 Grade I Apple Blossom in which she made the defending older female Eclipse winner Ginger Punch, look very ordinary. Now if you see Reggie, aka Bold Bidder, tell that I gotta bottle of Cruzan Creme that I will deliver to him courtesy of the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic winner, ZENYATTA!!!!!!!!!!! Peace Ya'll.
I thought she would be a big factor in the race, but realistically, I thought she had a 10-15% chance to pull off a victory.
I was completely, absolutely impressed.
My hat is off to you.
Great pick, nice set of cojones, man.
Scott
This message has been edited by triguy237 on Nov 9, 2009 9:22 PM
