Mile,
Horses coming into the Mile off a top of more than a point have a dismal record. Most of the ones who run well come off a race within a point of their top and run back to it. Its not uncommon though for a fast horse to come in off a 1-5 pt off race and get back to a fast top to do well here. Euros 3yos run about 1 pt better regularly and tops of 3 pts have been achieved. US 3yos have run some net tops, but I think only one older ran US horse ran a new top. Ground saving trip into the turn is important.
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top |
prev |
pattern |
notes |
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Mr. Sidney |
-0.75 |
4 |
off |
only one fig better then 2.5 |
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Goldikova (IRE) * |
-.6 |
2.4 |
off |
Second best fig is a 2. |
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Cowboy Cal |
-0.5 |
1.5 |
off |
bore out last time, 1.5 is second best |
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Gladiatorus |
0 |
1.5 |
off |
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Justenuffhumor |
0 |
4.75 |
off |
only one fig better then 2.5 |
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Court Vision |
0.5 |
0.5 |
pair |
best 4 figs on les than firm going |
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Karelian |
1 |
1 |
2pt top |
bore out in last |
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Whatsthescript (IRE) |
1 |
1 |
.5 pt top |
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Zacinto (GB) * |
1.4 |
1.4 |
2.25 pt top |
euro 3 yo |
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Ferneley (IRE) |
1.5 |
1.5 |
pair |
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Delegator (GB) * |
2.15 |
3.4 |
off |
euro 3yo, big closing kick |
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Courageous Cat * |
2.4 |
4.65 |
off |
fill sib to After Market (ran a 0 on turf) |
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*adjusted for weight |
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Courageous Cat ~ Slowest top, and comes in off an off pattern, they obviously have high hopes and his full sib ran some big ones, but did so as a 4yo. May be as good as these some day, but not yet. Pass
Court Vision ~ Comes in with a fig that could be good enough to win with a trip, and it was a pair of his best, but that came last year and he bounced badly off that one. His best 4 races came on off going, which it wont get. Would be a surprise to me if he won, but I cant toss completely. Useable
Cowboy Cal ~ Has a good top, but was still a bit off it last time and bore out late. Doesnt look good for him to get back to the top here, but doesnt have to go backward either. Ground saving style always helps in the mile. Useable
Delegator (GB) ~ Ran a huge one in June and was purchased by Godolphin. Last two have not been quite as good but he has been closer to the pace. If the lag back he has an explosive move and off the June number with the weight and 3yo euros 1-3 pt top possible he could be really dangerous. Contender.
Ferneley (IRE) ~ In good form and running solid numbers, but a little light for this group of monsters. Cant see him getting a new top since hes 5 and already running about 2 points better than last year. Cant see a ground saving trip either. Pass
Gladiatorus ~ Ran two monster in Dubai, then a couple bad ones. Last two have been very good. Likely to get back to his top, and has enough speed to get a good trip. Contender
Goldikova (IRE) ~ Ran a monster 0 two back. That was a 2 pt top, and with the weight would win this. Her last was 3 pts off that. Females do bounce and get back to there top often, but a ) is really rare air, and very few males can repeat at that level this soon, its hard to see her getting back to that. I wouldnt be shocked if she was off the board, but she is just as likely to run something between the 2 and 0 which may put her on the board. Aggressive play is to leave her off, Ill probably chicken out and use her underneath.
Justenuffhumor ~ Ran a big 2.5 pt top to a 0 at the spa, followed it up with a terrible one on the soft Keeneland turf. Its not uncommon for a horse to run an off race and come back, but he was off 4.5 pts. Hes run well on good turf, and Distorted Humor is OK on off turf in general. Cant give him a complete pass for that one, and dont see him getting all the way back to that huge top her, or for a while. Pass
Karelian ~ Ran a big 2 pt top to a 1 last out, and that was off a long layoff, and he bore out late. Bertandos are really good on off turf (7 beyer points better than firm) which he got there and didnt here. Pass
Mr. Sidney ~ Fastest top coming in, that was three races back, and he hasnt run well since. Could have excuses two back because of the distance, but the last one is puzzling. Hes run well on off going before. Really dont like the pattern, but he is the fastest and the 30-1 ml juicy. Useable at the price.
Whatsthescript (IRE) ~ Is in good form, but his top is a bit off what he would need, and its tough to see him running the top he would need. Pass
Zacinto (GB) ~ Comes off a big top to a 2. Would need more then the normal 1 pt euro improvement. Its been a bad pattern to come in off a big top, most of them have, been US, but Id still be surprised to see him make a big jump. Pass
Summary
Contenders: Delegator, Gladiatorus
Usable: Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Goldikova, Mr. Sidney
