Let me preface this spiel with the fact that I'm allergic to chalk, it makes me break out in hives, drink cheap liquor, and start listening to Abba. So with that said I cannot in good conscience (or health) use Mastercraftsman on top.

I've landed on Mambo Meister as my longshot special who can upset the entire apple cart. I'll wait for the laughter to die down.
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Still snickering? I'm patient
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Ok, now that everyone except JMAN and Boozer Mike have stopped giggling I'll make my case.

Speed - On T-graphs he received a -1 for his last effort which actually represents the fastest number by anyone in this race. For the Beyer aficionados his last got a 100, which is plenty to competitive, T-graphs take into account weight and ground loss. Also, using my own personal brand of voodoo with graphs, I read his sheet where the -1 is much closer to a pair than the large top that it looks like on paper, I've learned to give turf numbers a 3 pt curve when comparing them to dirt.

Class - Finished in front of Cowboy Cal in the Fourstardave, only bested by a super in form Justenuffhumor on that day, both of those guys are running this weekend, Cowboy Cal used that race as springboard to win his last in impressive fashion and will be one of the choices in his race. Also, while I'm sure not many are familiar with Motovato (the horse he beat last out) he's a VERY fast animal, Wolfson does his south FL Wolfson magic and this guy has tasted some really rarified air on graphs, so beating him is noteworthy on the home course.

Works - Notice if you will that this guy's work page is historically slow, but starting Oct 3 for whatever reason Gleaves began knuckling down on him and it has paid dividends. Since showing interest in the mornings he ran the best race of his life, and then bounced out of that effort to work a bullet 48 flat 11 days later. For those unfamiliar with Calder, a 48 flat work is equivalent to a 46 flat pretty much anywhere else. His most recent work over the SA strip ended up being 5f even though it was originally scheduled to be 4f because Gleaves said he was feeling so good, form is holding.

Misc - His turf slanted pedigree on the bottom side gives me hope that he could be even better on the pro-ride. Also, Calder's main track is very deep and tiring I've had a great deal of success playing horses exiting that circuit on slight cutbacks in distance, even if there was a step up in class, in this case you get a 1/16th of a mile cutback for added stamina.

Price - 30-1, pretty sure that pays well.

Ok, the dissertation is now complete.

-BB

Dirt Mile

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1-Mastercraftsman ~ Ran a ¼ pt top last time when testing the synthetic for the first time. Has improved 4 pts this year and none (except Man of Iron, irony eh) of the OBrien horses will be getting Lasix.  Will need to work out a trip from the rail, and need to run a couple point top.  Not a good bet at a shot price.  Useable

 

2-Furthest Land ~ 2 pt top last time to a nice number on poly, poly seems to be the hardest to come back from big efforts on of the synthetics. Have to think that took something out of him, and his prior races arent near good enough.  Pass

 

3-Midshipman ~ Proven over the track last year, and made it back to the races in time to get a 6.5 prep for this.   Looked gassed last time, but ran a -0.25 which fits pretty well with these. Useable.

 

4-Bullsbay ~ Has been fast and consistent, on dirt. Moved up big time last year when moved out of Cali, and didnt run well on the trip back this summer.  Hasnt run on pro-ride yet, but hard to take a shot price on top.  Useable

 

5-Neko Bay ~ Won over this trip last out, getting a bit off his top.  Averages 1 race every 7 or 8 months lately. Maybe they have him patched together for another big effort.  Would have liked to see him back into a work a little quicker off that last race.  Figs are a bit slow, and even with a good run, it tough to see him as a fit with these. Pass

 

6-Mambo Meister ~ Ran a sharp race as a 2 year old and its taken a while, but he is starting to live up to some of that promise, King Cugats have been real late developers.  4 pt top to his dirt best, but has been mostly on turf this year.  Useable at a big price.

 

7-Pyro ~ Glad to see him back in training this year, and he makes a nice addition to this race.  Spent most of last year trying to run in the classics which seemed a bit longer than his best.  Will be running on late has the potential in this type of spot to move forward to a pretty big number.  Contender.

 

8-Mr. Sidney ~ Would have to win this race seven times to make back his auction prices. Wonder why the economics of this game dont make any sense  Anyway, He ran a huge turf fig at CD this summer.  From limited runner Storm Cats look good over pro-ride, and his Dam is a full sib to mineshaft, so hes not a turf only pedigree.  Last couple have been poor, but the 10f was too long, and the keeneland race was in a bog.  Should get a good price on a real nice horse, with sloppy looking form, that may just have been poor luck/management.  Seems a good fit in here.  Contender.

 

9-Chocolate Candy ~ Looked like a nice one this spring, but didnt really continue on.  Last two after the break are not all that inspiring. Seems a cut below G1. Pass

 

10-Ready's Echo ~ This really is a deep race, hes run some nice 0s and the lost in the slop can be excused.  Has only one a MSW and N1x.  Wide post doesnt help, and there are better closers.. gotta cut it down somewhere. Pass.

 

Summary

Contenders: Pyro, Mr. Sidney

Useable: Mastercraftsman, Midshipman, Bullsbay, Mambo Meister

Reg,

I'll never laugh at someone for liking a 30/1 shot regardless of my opinion of said horse, but this whole drinking cheap liquor and listening to freakin ABBA is unacceptable pal.

Ya, seriously Reg...Abba...c'mon brother, drop anyone on me except Abba. Funny though, I was at the Las Vegas Hilton last weekend and apparently they have an Abba tribute show (just puked in my mouth a little)....DAAAAANCINNNNG QUEEEEEEEEEN. Okay, I'm done.

Can't knock a 30-1er...anyone outside of Mastercraftsman will pay generously.

A sleeper in my opinion is Neko Bay. He's always shown a lot of ability but is apparently a very ouchy horse - which is why he has 10 starts as a 6yo and PP's that go back to 2006. That said, this horse is going to be pairing up races for the first time in 20 months. Decent work out of the race, possibly the right running style, LOVES the track (when it was dirt, but not bad on Synthetic, maybe he just likes the Arcadia air), and 20-1 ML. No shame losing to an in form Zappa, Surf Cat, Monzante, and Fairbanks (in his freak effort). He has quiet class.

Who is going to make Midshipman work on the front end?

Yeah Reggie...everybody knows that the only music to drink cheap booze with is A Flock of Seagulls.

Big, I think Midships unsoundness will do him in. Notice no works for over a month after his comeback in that allowance race. The bore in last time doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy either. He's definitely a contender and worth using in the multi-race exotics, but I just don't seem him getting it done because of the soundness issues.

-BB