It's up and running....

http://www.canoelake.ca/iceout/



Barbara

Woooo-Whooo Let the guessing begin in earnest


April ice out is an illusion


Rac n

Since we're in a La Nina cycle, I took a look at previous years of la Nina and compared to the ice out historical data:

1988-1989 - May 8
1995-1996 - May 8
1999-2000 - April 26
2000- 2001 (Light year) - April 23rd.

Glad I booked May 8th for my first trip....

Glad we booked May 11th for ours.
Still think (hope maybe) that ice out won't be much later than usual this year. We had a lot of snow on thin ice, never got really cold for very long. I'm more worried about ice and snow on the Dickson cart trail than ice on the lakes!

My guess was April 30th.

Going to Galeairy on April 25 and 26 by boat with icebreaker on bow.


Bo

We were up at the cottage for the last 4 days, about half an hour south of Bancroft. We still had a good 2 feet of snow on the roof and we were drilling through at least 2 feet of ice while we were ice fishing. (Note the emphasis was on fishing, not catching )

Beautiful sunny weather the last few days, but I'm thinking that it could be a late ice out. I picked April 24th, that'll give the water time to warm up before folks start arriving on the 25th.


___________________________
No your other left!
www.loonislandoutdoors.com

I'll have to follow the trail of broken ice

what a stink this potentially late ice-out is. my first spring fishing trip might not happen!

Geez, you think one of you would have pointed out the 1999/2000 boo-boo when y'all emailed your pessimistic predictions!

April 30th, indeed!

I'm sticking with April 24th.



Barbara

It takes one degree day to melt 1.5 mm of ice, or so the Old Wive's Tale goes. Unless we get some long periods of daytime highs in the teens, and overnight low temps above freezing, we are going to have plenty o ice for the Caesars well past opener.

Wives' tale. <edit>. Sry.

that's what happens when you stay up late at night.

Is that like 6 degrees of separation?



Barbara

There has been alot of talk about LATE ice out this year. I don't think that is going to be case for 5 reasons.

1. Comparing the last few LaNina years ('96, '97, and 2005 specifically) There is one thing that was lacking in our past winter: A prolonged cold snap. In all three previous years there has been a lenghtly cold snap (-20C high temps) during Janruary.

2. Recall that in mid-Jan. we had a vigourous melt. I've spoken to folks just south of the park and they told me that ice came completely out of Mountain lake (north of Minden) during that Jan. thaw.

3. There is significantly less snow north of the Ontario snow blet. Yes, Ottawa and surrounding area got pummelled this year. Further north though there is almost no snow left on the ground. North Bay, for example, did not get nearly as much snow as we did here in Ottawa.

4. White ice. The lack of cold and surplus of snow has left a thick layer of white ice on most lakes and rivers and not much clear (or black) ice. White ice melts fast because there is alot of embedded air pockets within.

5. Finally, I only have a 5 day window to do a spring trip this year and that window happens to be from April 25 to April 30. Mother nature has yet to let me down in terms of ice for my spring trips...Knock on Wood!

So, don't worry floks we'll be paddling AP before we're allowed to catch any trout. My prediction is April 22.

If you don't trust my analysis, that's OK. Book your trip in May and I'll have the park to myself.

Keeping my fingers crossed
K

Do you think 6 degrees will help melt the ice for your guess to win?

...and the old wive's tale might be accurate since it may just have been one old wife that was responsible for that particular contribution.

I seem to recall another truism: get more than one old wife gathered in one place and the old wives can't agree on anything.

-Jester

I know enough to know I don't know enough

Looking at the satellite photos from today, I think I shall eat a little crow (very nice with some garlic and a white whine sauce) and bow to the Queen of the Park for her guess of April 24 on Opeongo. Right on, Girl.

What's this? I'm right???!!! The ice may be losing its grip on Algonquin's lakes, but apparently Heck just froze over.


Breaking with tradition? No fava beans and a nice chianti with that Crowe, douGless?


Jester, lad, just how many old wives do you have on your record?


Just like the old days, of way back when I first started posting here on AA....



Barbara

galaeriy in whiteny is free of ice

Road conditions have been updated on the park's website:
http://algonquinpark.on.ca/news/spring_accessICEsafety.html

still waiting on ice conditions.

All lakes remain ice-covered. Ice thickness is variable throughout the Park.

A flight is scheduled for Friday morning (April 25th) -- weather permitting -- to determine the extent of ice conditions on lakes and rivers.

Markus
Etobicoke, Onterry-airy-airy-Ohhh!

Bob
We're getting conflicting reports between the Park office, what we think we see in the satellite images, the partial reports from Algonquin Outfitters (" Mew and Brewer Lakes, for example, are almost ice-free and we expect Costello to open today. There is open water in front of the Opeongo Store.") and your own Galeairy. So just to be sure can you confirm that your Galeairy report was an "eye witness" one?

The folks I have coming with me are starting to get worried. We really want to be in the park this weekend, but if the ice really isn't going to be out then we still have time to change our destination.

Thanks!

___________________________
No your other left!
www.loonislandoutdoors.com

Judging by the photos from the helicopter fly-over yesterday, none of the big lakes are going to be open. They're still locked tight into the shoreline:

http://algonquinoutfitters.blogspot.com/

What you really need up there is some serious wind and rain to bust the ice up.

it was nice being "right" for a little while, any way.

dang, i'm soooo tempted to take a road trip....Rain Lake or Magnetawan or....just to check things out for myself.






Barbara

Don't give up Barbara. You still have 32 hours before you are wrong...officially


MELT, Please MELT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kyle

ICE BE GONE

ICE BE GONE

ICE BE GONE

**click, click**

**waving of arms**


But wait.....

From the update on the Park's website:
Access Point #4 (Rain Lake):
Road is CLOSED until May 8th (at least). Repair work required.

Oh, c'mon.....MAY 8th!!!!! At least????? What the heck is wrong with it?

argh. Figures...shoulda kept the truck.

Soooo....ice might very well go out this weekend, but doesn't do much good if we can't travel on the road.

Now I need a chant to get the road fixed before the blackflies come alive!




Barbara

I seen it with my own eyes..no ice. Brewer on hwy 60 should be open by tomorrow. Most lakes in Bancroft are free, lakes in Huntsville too.

Anyone know anything bout the ice there?
I can't get a good look at it on the satelite!!!
Every bloody day there seems to be cloud cover on the area...

I "think" it'll be good for the opener, as the weather has been busting the ice in the area(St. Andrews looked to be broken on the 19th) but....
I have not seen a shot of Grand Lake Since it was frozen SOLID on the 18th.

Lemke Lake in Pembroke (little lake before going up Achray Road) is ice free. Meaning, the rule in past years says Grand should be ice free too!!!


Bo

Hey Cookslav,

Are you going up through Achray this week? I will be going as well if the lakes are open, hoping to get to explore north of there.
Which lakes are you planning going to?

AM

Thanks Bob!

So far the group decision is that we're going to Algonquin and if the lakes turn out to really still be frozen, then we can worry about it then. Either do some day hikes, or head south to open water. Galeairy itself could give us a good alternative.

___________________________
No your other left!
www.loonislandoutdoors.com

"Appears" to Ice free via todays Satelite shots....
If it isn't then My guess is it will be VERY shortly.

AM,
We're headed south into Length lake for a few days...nothing overly adventurous.
We have a couple of older guys....one "mobility challenged" (my Dad) with us, and a 10 year old kid along for the ride so we're planning on sitting tight once we're in.
Not a lot of touring around....

Just far enough in to relax, drink a few beers in the pine round a campfire and catch a few fish...
My Brother and I will no doubt make a few day trips...check out st Fancis, and some surrounding lakes, maybe take a tour up to see the canyon.

R&R is the plan

There's no place like the Park, there's no place like the park. I got yer back, Barbara.

Looking like maybe Sunday for Opeongo? If you look closely at the satellite photos, you can see that some nearby lakes are dark grey, but not quite black yet. Soon, very soon.

Condolences to those planning to arrive tomorrow or Saturday. Hope that all works out well anyhoo.

Stainless, I've been using an electric toothbrush for a couple of weeks now. I can't wait to have you tell me how I'm doin.