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Weather Forecasts

July 1 2008 at 4:14 PM

 
from IP address 69.17.189.31

I'm getting quite perturbed over the week's weather forecasts becoming increasingly less meaningful or accurate.

Temperature forecasts seem pretty dependable. However, precipitation and wind speed predictions seem next to useless.

Before leaving for five days in the park last week on the Monday, the forecast was indicating 60% chance of rain. Well, what does that really mean? Rain for 60% of the day .. or a 60% chance that you'll have some rain at some point through the day? We had the briefest of showers for all of 2 minutes that entire day. And the call for Thursday was for 70% chance .. with a dismal symbol of overcast clouds and pouring rain. When that day arrived, we had late afternoon thunderheads, some rumbling thunder but no rain!

And as for wind .. the call through the 5 day period was for 5 to 10 kph. Well, Wednesday was a shorebound day of changing wind directions and on-and-off afternoon whitecaps. Do these weather experts arrive at a daily average including the dead calm night hours? From 7 pm through to 12 am, the wind is a negligible breeze .. but from noon to 7 pm it's around 40 kph .. so their 24 hour average is forecast as 10 kph (rounded down from the daylong average of 11.7 kph). If this is the way they're arriving at their wind forecast, it's next to useless!

So pleasantly, last week was dryer by far from what the forecast called for .. but the wind was quite another issue! With weather seeming to be developing and changing at a more and more rapid pace, maybe those "Weather Radios" are becoming the only way to stay on top of the weather as it develops on a daily basis! Does anyone have experience with the VHF Weather Radios?

Anyway, here are some photos from last week ...


Little Doe Lake.


East end of Burnt Island Lake.


Otter Slide Lake .. campsite east of Otter Slide Creek.


Evening calm, looking west toward Otter Slide Creek.


Sunset over Burnt Island Lake.


At the take-out from Burnt Island Lake to Baby Joe Lake.


Barry Bridgeford
(central York Region)


 
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JoD

216.59.253.204

Re: Weather Forecasts

July 1 2008, 4:47 PM 

Nice pics Barry, so I have to ask...how were the bugs?

 
 



24.141.30.120

Re: Weather Forecasts

July 1 2008, 7:21 PM 

Yes, I too am curious of the bug situation on your trip. I'll be in the dead-center of the park this coming weekend, and so far the weather forecast for this week (and the entire weekend we'll be there) in the park is showing as sunny and no rain. So, I'm hoping that means the bug situation will start to lessen some...


 
 



99.229.142.37

Looks like a lot of fun!

July 1 2008, 8:32 PM 

Hey Barry....

Looks like you had a great time! Fantastic Photos as usual!

Jeff P
http://algonquincanoeing.blogspot.com/

 
 

Ricksterz

70.53.131.166

Re: Weather Forecasts

July 1 2008, 8:44 PM 

I use a handheld, waterproof radio which receives the Environment Canada weather radio stations. It also handles the VHF marine and GMRS bands (both transmitting and receiving). It's a little overkill for just weather radio, but it works well and alerts me to dangerous conditions in a local area using the SAME codes (Specific Area Message Encoding).

The relatively new Algonquin (Jake Lake) weather radio station signal appears to cover most of the park. Coverage map: http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/msb/weatheradio/transmitter/mapping/transmitter_e.cfm?radio_id=439

My radio is a relatively new purchase. I have used it on just two visits to the park this year, in Canisbay and Rock Lake (just returned from Rock a couple of hours ago). I received a strong signal in both locations and the weather was pretty accurate.


 
 



99.234.15.17

Re: Weather Forecasts

July 1 2008, 8:52 PM 

Hmmm...you can't always depend on EC though. Look at what happened in Lethbridge today.
No watches or warnings beforehand. Another good tool besides the weather radio, is observations.
Keep your eyes on the skies as you paddle or laze around your campsite.
Suffice it to say, I am interested in picking up a weather radio. Just don't be surprised if a storm blows up and your weather radio doesn't go off with warning signals.

Markus
Etobicoke, Onterry-airy-airy-Ohhh!

 
 
Bo Knows

209.226.175.59

Re: Weather Forecasts

July 2 2008, 4:59 AM 

Barry:

Nice pics as usual.

I know what you mean regarding wind. My forecast the day I left called
for winds no greater than 10 km the entire 5 days I was suppose to be on Sec. Yeah, right, and I have some land for sale in Florida. The only
day is was not real windy was on Friday, the day of my arrival.

And your picture of the takeout from Burnt Island to Baby Joe. This is an
historic place for me as my first trip by canoe into the interior of
Algonquin with my brother Bob, we camped at this spot the first night.
My first night ever in the interior of Algonquin Park by canoe!!

Is there still a campsite at this spot??????

Bo

 
 



69.17.189.31

Old campsite at end of Burnt Island Lake ..

July 2 2008, 8:14 AM 

There appears to have been a campsite between the take-out and the dam at one time. There's still a thunderbox maintained there .. for portage users, I guess.

There's a bit of semi-level land nearby which could have once served as a campsite. However, it has the weird characteristic of actually being "below lake-level". Burnt Island Lake is held back by a mostly rocky point that helps support the lake-retaining dam. At the very spot where the old campsite seems to have been, the lake appears to be held back by a relatively narrow tree-covered strip of land.

My guess is that rocks must lie under the trees .. nevertheless, the visual impression is that one's old campsite could be washed away if that strip of "ground" ever gave way.

Barry Bridgeford
(central York Region)


 
 
Bo Knows

209.226.175.30

Re: Old campsite at end of Burnt Island Lake ..

July 2 2008, 8:30 AM 

Barry:

Back in 1966, the campsite was right at the put in on the right hand side if
you're facing Burnt Island. I remember fishing on the flat rocks at the lake
shoreline right near my tent.

Bo

 
 
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