1500 is a safe bet as the 441 and no reason to think the 438 will be different.
i own the 438 and have handled a 441 in person at the 2012 display event in hk.
i personally preferred the 438 because of price--the 441 was almost 4K usd more for essentially a ceramica bracelet. if i really wanted i could special order the bracelet. i personally like changes straps a lot so couldn't imagine paying 4 for a bracelet. imagine how many straps you could get for that money!!!
IIRC is a slight difference in the movement. the 438 movement itself is black whereas the 441 movement is same as the other p9002 movements but the clear glass is tinted dark.
very small detail that most people won't notice but my dealer mentioned this. i have pics of both but you can't tell anything from the pics.
Thanks for the info..I'm now swinging towards the 411 as i just noticed the ceramic bracelet is on a deployment clasp which I found uncomfortable on previous models I've owned and I would probably wear it with leather straps ...yep the extra 4k seems excessive.