He's a fast horse-105 Beyer 0 tg in his sprint debut.If he runs back to those figures he'll hit the board at Churchill.O'neill had him all cranked up for that maiden breaker.He's slowly working Notional back towards that peak again.Didn't need the earnings and was off a 7 week layoff at Gulfstream so you know O'neill has plenty of gas in that tank.He'll have him nice and tight for the Derby.
He's a very athletic horse(Risen Star-steered around and waited behind horses)and can also grind(Fla Derby)He'll keep on coming.He won't be a slave to the pace like so many are.Too fast he can sit mid-pack.Very slow and he's certainly handy enough to lay close.He's an excellent runner on the turns.
His pedigree isn't dazzling,but his father did set the track record for a 1 1/4 in the Suburban at Belmont.Even though he was probably a short horse in the Fla Derby he was still galloping out the best.I think he'll be okay at the distance.
Trainer is super sharp and having a dynamite year.Not so thrilled with Albarado if he keeps the ride,but he seems to fit the horse well.
Price will be right.Timing is good.The horse ships and travels well.The only knock would be not having run fast enough yet in a 3yo route prep,but I have a feeling O'neill hasn't had to go pedal to the medal with him so far this year.He'll have him cranked for this one.
This message has been edited by big18741 on Apr 8, 2007 8:33 AM
You make some good points on why Notional could be the one.
Maybe this is the post we'll look back on on Saturday May 5th,and say woulda,coulda,shoulda to.
A few more preps to come,with 4 more weeks from today to form a solid opinion for the BIG RACE.
There's now 26 days to go and here's how I'm leaning.
Circular Quay- I think he has the most talent, but hate the way he's being babied up to the race. I do know he'll be flying when the majority of the field is backing up. If he gets clear sailing, watch out. Worked 5f in 59 and chage, so I know he's sharp. Would like to see Pletcher work him a couple of fast miles to get him ready.
Scat Daddy- has been one of my top picks since last year's Breeders Cup. Always runs well and the fact remains, he has beaten No Biz twice. Gets Prado and should be in the picture.
Street Sense- has a world of talent. Waiting to see his race in the Blue Grass, but he must be respected.
Sightseeing- probably won't make the gate, but I respect anything Shug sends out (Saarland??). Like Croix Boy said, doesn't have that sharp turn of speed, but grinds it out. Will be coming late when others are tiring.
No Biz Like Shobiz- talented horse must be respected, but I'll let him beat me for the money.
Nothing else really sends me right now, but I'll be watching the workouts in the next few weeks.
This message has been edited by dirbud on Apr 9, 2007 9:29 AM
The horse I'm looking at to wear the roses is Stormello. I won't pretend to have a wealth of reasons why. But I saw him run well enough to win the FOY beaten by a nose and it makes sense to me that he didn't run as well in the Florida Derby because maybe the two trips across the country took a bit out of him....at least that's what the trainer seemed to imply. Makes sense to me. I have no problem with Espinoza either. Just a hunch folks.
Big, I'm with you! Seems that happens from time to time, doesn't it? LOL!
Notional is the last viable future bet I have still standing, unless I spring for something else this weekend, which is pretty unlikely. I still have faith in him, and agree with just about eveythihg you said. I really have nothing to add.
My future is in Pool #1......$30 at 27-1. Though it does look like he'll go off in the Derby in double digits, I still don't think it will be that high, so I should still get decent value.
I have about 4-5 horses in mind right now but am anxiously awaiting who Johnny V. will ride for Pletcher. Steve, if he chooses Circular Quay off that long an extended layoff, then we know he's got a huge chance and is a must use on your ticket. If JR goes off him to ride Scat Daddy or someone else, I'm tossing him from my ticket on that reasoning alone. JMHO
Hey Timmye. Glad to hear from you. Maybe we can get together before the Derby again. Maybe this year, your brother will listen to my tout! I still recall Gary Stevens' comment when asked last year if he could ride any horse, who would it be and he replied "Circular Quay". Maybe he knows more than we do. I still think this colt has a world of talent, even though I don't like the way he's being brought up to the race. But you're right about seeing where Johnny V ends up.
I agree. I think CQ fits the tempo of the race, especially now that Nobiz may have to be on the pace because that's the way he's been taught of late. And CQ loves Churchill, too. Again, if JR elects to ride him, I'll back him to an extent. I think many of today's trainers (and one is Pletcher) have already shown they can fire big off layoffs. But if JR goes elsewhere, so do I.
My best case scenario for Circular Quay is a late close in the Derby to finish 6th. Pletcher skips the Preakness and runs him back 5 weeks later in the Belmont. He goes off at a generous price and it's unload time. I think this horse will absolutely love Belmont Park.
Steve, after last year I don't think you need any help with triples pal.
My scenario was just something I'd like to see regarding the Belmont and Circular Quay. Kind of comical that I was playing against him at 1 1/16 in March and now I'm looking at a possibility of him at 1 1/2 in June.
This game is all about adjustments lol.
Current Topic - 27 Days out and my key horse is.......