1 Sedgefield ~ Live at a long price. Love the conditioning race over the turf last time out. He ran a very professional and athletic race to break his maiden from the one hole. Of course he did it against bums, but he has moved forward, and never really looked comfortable on the turf. His second place finish to Hard Spun was a huge race, getting a fig as good as Nobizís top. If he runs as well on Dirt as he has on poly they will need to replace the lights on the tote board after the race.
2 Curlin ~ I think a lot of people are over thinking this horse. He's the only one who has strung together really good races. It doesn't look like they have gotten to the bottom of him yet either. He's the most likely winner and I think in June we are going to be comparing him to some big names from 20-30 years ago.
3 Zanjero ~ Ran some solid numbers last year, and improved this year. Still at his best a bit slow, and will have trouble finding a clear path coming from pretty far back.
4 Storm in May ~ Too slow, not a 10f pedigree, don't see him making the improvement needed to be competitive.
5 Imawildandcrazyguy ~ He ran a pretty big number as a two year old, and he's improved a little. A new top is somewhat possible and it could be enough to get a check. Interesting longshot at a big price.
6 Cowtown Cat ~ Ran a solid number last time out, but it was a pretty big jump up. I think that was his derby and he'll bounce off it.
7 Street Sense ~ I'm not sure that he's gotten enough out of the Tampa race and the slow paced Blue Grass to be at his best. On talent, connections and love of the track I'll play him underneath.
8 Hard Spun ~ Heís done everything right so far, including getting out of Arkansas when Curlin showed up. Iím not sure if heís ready to run the race of his life off a six week layoff and goofy training pattern. Including, but not on top
9 Liquidity ~ One of the most talented horses in the field, but has turned into a head case the past couple races. Owner and trainer seem to be almost unable to contain themselves when they talk about him. I think they have figured him out and heís going to run the race of his life. Reports from Haskins in Kentucky say heís looking at training very impressively.
10 Teuflesberg ~ Nice horse, but he looked spent after 9f in the Blue Grass. Heís a little light on the numbers and I canít see him running a new top trying to hold off some of the quality horses that will be making runs at him early and often.
11 Bwana Bull ~ I canít blame them for taking a shot, but heís really too slow to be competitive.
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz ~ The value of the race is playing him off the board. He ran some bang up races as a two year old, and in three starts this year has yet to improve. He also is just as green as he was then, and seems to be even less cooperative with his rider during the race. Heíll probably win some nice races down the road, but the pattern suggests his is likely to go south soon.
13 Sam P. ~ Didnít really run that fast as a two year old and has only developed a little and would need a big top to even get close.
14 Scat Daddy ~ Has done everything right so and could have a better form line coming in. Ran a huge number in the champagne as a two year old, and quickly got back to that number this year before running a small top last time. He has the potential on pedigree to improve another 1-1.5 points and even a pair up will put him in the picture at the end.
15 Tiago ~ Ran a huge come from behind race in the Santa Anita Derby. It was a couple point top and leaves him slower than too many of these.
16 Circular Quay ~ Ran a huge -1 in the Louisiana Derby, and the 8 weeks off probably gives him a better chance of running back to it. As good as it was it wasnít a huge move up based on his 2yo numbers. He will have a hard time working out a trip from the 16 hole and heís the size of a large dog, and getting bounced around would really compromise him. Iíll play him on top because of the figs, rest, and solid connections.
17 Stormello ~ Ran some solid races against Scat Daddy, but the connections and the horse seem to be on different pages on his running style. Canít see him getting a decent trip and running a new top and heíd need both to have a shot.
18 Any Given Saturday ~ Ran a fast 2yo race, and was able to run a new top in his second race this year (good sign). The last race was a small backward move, and looked like a conditioning race. I expect a big run from him, but the post position will keep him off the top of my tickets.
19 Dominican ~ Iím not getting all the love for this guy. He won the Blue Grass in probably the paced derby prep race ever. Heís got a quick turn of foot, but his pedigree makes me think it will be a little duller going 10f. Three races in a 6 week span, and a poor post wonít help.
20 Great Hunter ~ I was a huge fan of his dad and wish I could back him here, but his only decent fig came on the quirky Breeders Cup day. Draw a line though that and heís one of the slowest horses in the race. Even the owner likes his other horse (Liquidity) better.
Nobiz off the board
Curlin IS a monster
Scat Daddy 2nd most likely winner
Sedge & Liquidity live at big prices
CQ scary talent, on top defensively
SS, AGS, HS filling out the tri
Zanjero & Imawildandcrazyguy possible savers with Curlin on top.
Iíll play a one spread ticket (1,2,9,14,16/ +7,8,18/same), and a series of higher $ tickets keying Curlin with 1,9,14.
Good luck everyone!