1 Sedgefield ~ Live at a long price.  Love the conditioning race over the turf last time out.  He ran a very professional and athletic race to break his maiden from the one hole.  Of course he did it against bums, but he has moved forward, and never really looked comfortable on the turf.  His second place finish to Hard Spun was a huge race, getting a fig as good as Nobiz’s top.  If he runs as well on Dirt as he has on poly they will need to replace the lights on the tote board after the race.

2 Curlin ~ I think a lot of people are over thinking this horse.  He's the only one who has strung together really good races.  It doesn't look like they have gotten to the bottom of him yet either.  He's the most likely winner and I think in June we are going to be comparing him to some big names from 20-30 years ago.

3 Zanjero ~ Ran some solid numbers last year, and improved this year.  Still at his best a bit slow, and will have trouble finding a clear path coming from pretty far back. 

4 Storm in May ~ Too slow, not a 10f pedigree, don't see him making the improvement needed to be competitive.

5 Imawildandcrazyguy ~ He ran a pretty big number as a two year old, and he's improved a little.  A new top is somewhat possible and it could be enough to get a check. Interesting longshot at a big price.

6 Cowtown Cat ~ Ran a solid number last time out, but it was a pretty big jump up.  I think that was his derby and he'll bounce off it.

7 Street Sense ~ I'm not sure that he's gotten enough out of the Tampa race and the slow paced Blue Grass to be at his best.  On talent, connections and love of the track I'll play him underneath.

8 Hard Spun ~  He’s done everything right so far, including getting out of Arkansas when Curlin showed up.  I’m not sure if he’s ready to run the race of his life off a six week layoff and goofy training pattern.  Including, but not on top

9 Liquidity ~ One of the most talented horses in the field, but has turned into a head case the past couple races.  Owner and trainer seem to be almost unable to contain themselves when they talk about him.  I think they have figured him out and he’s going to run the race of his life.  Reports from Haskins in Kentucky say he’s looking at training very impressively.

10 Teuflesberg ~ Nice horse, but he looked spent after 9f in the Blue Grass.  He’s a little light on the numbers and I can’t see him running a new top trying to hold off some of the quality horses that will be making runs at him early and often.

11 Bwana Bull ~ I can’t blame them for taking a shot, but he’s really too slow to be competitive.

12 Nobiz Like Shobiz ~ The value of the race is playing him off the board.  He ran some bang up races as a two year old, and in three starts this year has yet to improve.  He also is just as green as he was then, and seems to be even less cooperative with his rider during the race.   He’ll probably win some nice races down the road, but the pattern suggests his is likely to go south soon.

13 Sam P. ~  Didn’t really run that fast as a two year old and has only developed a little and would need a big top to even get close.

14 Scat Daddy ~ Has done everything right so and could have a better form line coming in.   Ran a huge number in the champagne as a two year old, and quickly got back to that number this year before running a small top last time.  He has the potential on pedigree to improve another 1-1.5 points and even a pair up will put him in the picture at the end.

15 Tiago ~ Ran a huge come from behind race in the Santa Anita Derby.  It was a couple point top and leaves him slower than too many of these. 

16 Circular Quay ~ Ran a huge -1 in the Louisiana Derby, and the 8 weeks off probably gives him a better chance of running back to it.  As good as it was it wasn’t a huge move up based on his 2yo numbers.  He will have a hard time working out a trip from the 16 hole and he’s the size of a large dog, and getting bounced around would really compromise him.   I’ll play him on top because of the figs, rest, and solid connections. 

17 Stormello ~ Ran some solid races against Scat Daddy, but the connections and the horse seem to be on different pages on his running style.   Can’t see him getting a decent trip and running a new top and he’d need both to have a shot.

18 Any Given Saturday ~ Ran a fast 2yo race, and was able to run a new top in his second race this year (good sign).   The last race was a small backward move, and looked like a conditioning race.  I expect a big run from him, but the post position will keep him off the top of my tickets.

19 Dominican ~ I’m not getting all the love for this guy.   He won the Blue Grass in probably the paced derby prep race ever.   He’s got a quick turn of foot, but his pedigree makes me think it will be a little duller going 10f.  Three races in a 6 week span, and a poor post won’t help.

20 Great Hunter ~ I was a huge fan of his dad and wish I could back him here, but his only decent fig came on the quirky Breeders Cup day.  Draw a line though that and he’s one of the slowest horses in the race.  Even the owner likes his other horse (Liquidity) better.

 

Short version….

Nobiz off the board

Curlin IS a monster

Scat Daddy 2^nd most likely winner

Sedge & Liquidity live at big prices

CQ scary talent, on top defensively

SS, AGS, HS filling out the tri

Zanjero & Imawildandcrazyguy possible savers with Curlin on top.

 

I’ll play a one spread ticket (1,2,9,14,16/ +7,8,18/same), and a series of higher $ tickets keying Curlin with 1,9,14.

 

Good luck everyone!

Currently sitting with nice Live Futures that cover 8 horses on top:

1) Zanjero - 50-1
2) Sam P. - 45-1
3) Field Pool #2 - 6-1
-a) Bwana Bull
-b) Cowtown Cat
-c) Dominican
-d) Sedgefield
-e) Storm In May
-f) Tiago

Strategy:

Will use Nobiz on top with my futures mixed in underneath in various exotics.

Also, keying Zanjero, Dominican and Sam P. in the 2 and 3 slots with several runners in Tri-wheels.

The weather and Post Position draw has lessened my bankroll, but I'll still have plenty of action.

Also, will throw $50 into various supers, using No-Biz and my other keys.

Good Luck All!

Good read, elk. Daresay there are people paying $20 for stuff and not getting half the insight. Not to say I agree with all of your conclusions.

Sedgefield: Started as a promising turf horse and switches to dirt for he Classics. The comparisons to Barbaro end there. No demonstrated ability to finish. Discarding.

Curlin: Gets shuffled back early, finds himself farther back eating dirt, Moves up but others are moving just as fast, while others are closing just as well or better. He's first or nowhere in my mind, and I'm betting nowhere.

Zanjero: Better of the Asmussens, live underneath with a grinding late run. Have a small Oaks/Double to him if he shakes up the world.

Storm in May: Looks hopelessly slow to me, even for a clunk-up share.

Imawildandcrazyguy: Looks like the kind that doesn't get a call early or late and you see the chart on Sunday and say "look who finished seventh."

Cowtown Cat: Out of respect for Propro, who likes this one, I have a small Oaks/Double saver with him, but won't be using him any further. He looks to be pace- sensitive to me. Todd knows who his fifth-stringer is.

Street Sense: Has been my pick all spring and haven't seen anything to change my mind. Like Katman, potential track condition issues may have me scaling back, but my buddy at the track says it's OK now and they're hoping for drying out conditions. If he wins, I want to score-two pick fours, three pick threes and single-race exotics. That's the hope anyway.

Hard Spun: I've had him anywhere form win candidate to fraud and everything in between. Thinking he's a play against and asmall Oaks/Derby double allows me to ignore him in the win hole. Maybe to start the tenth race pick three. Maybe not.

Liquidity: Looking for a steady fade commencing from the six furlong marker.

Teufelsburg: Hoping he doesn't back up into Street Sense' face at the half-mile pole.

Bwana Bull: Somebody had to be the twentieth horse in field.

Nobiz Like Shobiz: One of the three I'll be using in my multi-race tickets. The worst race he's ever run is a half-length off Scat Daddy and he'll beat one going longer. Should get a nice three-wide stalking trip , then we'll see what he's got.

Sam P.: Someone said he threw six moves in the SA Derby. If downshifting from fifth to neutral counts, I guess he did. Doesn't own a single pace figure equal to or above par. Someone else cited his ability to withstand excessive punishment from his rider. Won't have to worry today.

Scat Daddy: Professional race horse. Never been a fan, but he always runs his race. Think the distance is beyond his best and his pedestrain figures doom him to an on-the-board finish at best.

Tiago: Light bulb went on in his last. Live underneath player who wouldn't shock for the win if a couple don't fire and the race falls apart. He'll be on one or two multi-race tickets, probably pick threes.

Circular Quay: Obviously has some talent, but I think one-turn races are his future. Wrong style, tough trip awaits, needs luck and has too many questions to answer. If he wins, I lose.

Stormello: Looks like a player to the upper stretch, but half the field goes by him.

Any Given Saturday: Have a decent Oaks/Double wager to him, and he's the third horse I'll use on most multi-race tickets, although the post might push him down a placing. He'll fire a shot off the turn, then we'll see.

Dominican: I'm with the poly-track-freak crowd here. Rode a serious bias to his only significant win and the post draw did him no favors. Still his finish seems reliable enough that, along with obvious improvement could land him underneath.

Great Hunter: I have a small O/D double to him, but otherwise have a hard time seeing him working out a winning trip from the outside. One of the handful usable underneath.


Geeod luck to all the horses, riders and players today.