Those are some seriously big what-ifs, Jason. But it's interesting to contemplate.
It will come as no surprise to anyone that I think Street Sense is probably -- and, so far, demonstrably -- the best horse of his generation. But a Triple Crown winner? I doubt it.
The Preakness is the key. If he wins there, he can definitely win the Belmont. I mean, come on. Both times he's been in super-serious mode, he has toyed with his peers down the stretch. At the very least he will, as they say across the pond, "take all the beating."
But it's a major beeotch to win 3 great races in a row. Now more than ever, perhaps, because you take on fresh new shooters at every leg. (E.g., all things being unequal, how fair is it that Birdstone got 5 weeks to rest up for Smarty Jones? Or that Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted got to catch their breath while Funny Cide was shipping to a new track and jack-stomping the Preakness?")
The Derby winner is really behind the 8-ball these days. Nobody else has to run in the Preakness. Everybody else can rest up and wait for the Belmont, the only top-class, 12 f. dirt race in the friggin' world these days, and ambush the poor sucker who had to bust a gut to win the first two legs.
The playing field isn't quite level anymore. The last three TC winners -- Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed -- their prime challengers ran in all three legs. Only Victory Gallop has done that in recent history. Silver Charm, Charismatic, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones were beaten in the Belmont -- barely! -- by horses who skipped the Derby or Preakness.
The TC has never been harder to win, imo.
Also, I think that if you're going to celebrate Nafzger's aptitude for getting a horse to peak on The Big Day -- Derby or Breeders' Cup -- you have to acknowledge the slight to severe fall-off that his horses experienced immediately thereafter.
Nafzger is a whip-smart horseman. I'd bet back all my winnings on the premise that, deep down, he's thinking much less about the winning Triple Crown, which is nigh impossible, than winning the Travers and Classic, which isn't. The latter ain't easy but at least you're not asking for a peak effort three times in 5 weeks.
This message has been edited by vagrant2 on May 7, 2007 4:16 AM
IF, he can win the Preakness, and IF he comes out of that race in good condition, then I love his chances at Belmont. Where are the quality closers this year? Five weeks rest does not make me think that Circular Quay can run by Street Sense. Not sure what the problem is with Great Hunter. The real threat to Street Sense in the Belmont in my view would be Tiago, who may have his best race ahead of him.
I am much more concerned about the Preakness, where Street Sense has to face Curlin, who probably needed the Derby against a classy field to move forward. It's one thing to run eyeball to eyeball against Deadly Dealer and quite another to run against Hard Spun and Street Sense. Hard Spun is probably shot after that monster race, but if he can run another similar effort he is a threat. Who knows, maybe Chelokee can run a race without traffic problems, and he could be a threat.
As a bettor I am looking for ways to beat Street Sense. As a fan, I can only hope that this year ... nah I won't even say it.
This message has been edited by JBaker826 on May 7, 2007 11:03 AM This message has been edited by JBaker826 on May 7, 2007 11:02 AM This message has been edited by JBaker826 on May 7, 2007 11:01 AM
>>>>>Hard Spun is probably shot after that monster race ...
He might be. I mean it. But he's a big, strong, well-bred young horse who will be hitting the Preakness 2nd off a small lay. He might run even better. What's more, he might not have to. If Street Sense encounters a half-second's worth of trouble -- literally -- Hard Spun is wearing the roses.
I think the toughest race for STREET SENSE would be the Belmont. Obviously the Test of Champions where many good ones failed before STREET SENSE stands in his way. I personally think his wuick turn of foot that work so well on the sharp turns will be offset by the sweeping turns of Belmont Park. Not to compare but he hits the turn like a late closing version of SUNDAY SILENCE. Secondly the competition awaiting at the Preakness is second tier while a fresh set of faces from the Derby will return for the Belmont.
I'm in total agreement with John. Street Sense has the best turn speed since Sunday Silence, the quick turn of foot generally isn't the way to go over 'Big Sandy'. The Preakness has been the real undoing of the last few contenders for the TC though, either the efforts were gut wrenching or they were such blowouts they still totally spent themselves. As much as I love SS, winning the TC isn't likely. Although, I will say no one in this crop makes me think they can beat him at this point, certainly not any of the derby also-rans, HS on a loose lead or tracking a slow pace is the best bet. If HS draws a post for the Preakness where he's drawn outside another speed type then he'll be able to sit in the garden spot instead of doing all the heavy lift, could make a difference in the stretch.
Has anyone seen odds on SS winning the TC? Someone in Vegas must be offering a line. After the race, someone at our party speculated he'd be about 8-1. Sounds a little low, but I doubt they'd offer much higher.
Street Sense beats a second rate Preakness field[maybe 2 or 3 serious contenders run in there,the rest are allowance or Grade 3 caliber],comes to Belmont seeking the Belmont and has to face a new foe:
Rags to Riches-she got a 104 Beyer in her dominating Oaks win,and was drawing away at the end of the 1/18 miles.She would be a fresh horse running in the Belmont with 5 weeks between starts,and "Big Sandy"would seem to really suit a horse like her[those sweeping turns are made to order for her wide rallies].
R to R is bred for this race being by Belmont winner AP Indy/Better Than Honour and is a 1/2 sister to Belmont winner Jazil.R to R if she runs would be a real threat to derail a SS Triple Crown bid.I hope the connections decide to run R to R in the Belmont the buildup to a SS RR matchup would be tremendous.
It's still a long way off but to borrow a lyric[about another famous filly Evita]:
"What's new" New York ?
"I'm new,I wanna say I'm just a little stuck on you
You'll be on me too"
"I get out here",New York
"Stand back,you oughta know whatcha gonna get in me
Just a little touch of star quality" ...
This message has been edited by DejaVuView on May 11, 2007 10:31 PM
I honestly don't think she'd have much of a shot. This is a VERY VERY slow group of fillies she's beating up on. In addition, her pace figs don't match up in the slightest, she'd be turned into a deep closer running the kind of races she's been running. Looking at the 104 final Beyer is not very telling, in addition with her pedigree the slop certainly moved her up several lengths.
Hi Reggie...how ya doing? I was kind of just measuring her up against herself, not who was beating. That's a fault of mine. I see a lightly raced filly who has been steadily progressing and stretching out. 7f, 1m, 1 1/16m, 1 1/8m, rating and closing with what seems to be still more gas in the tank. Maybe there will a few that I haven't taken a good look at yet who would appear to want a 1 1/2m and put in a strong effort, but it's still early. All I'm saying is RTR is looking pretty darn good to me right now.
For parimutuel purposes, I'd LOVE to see her run. She not nearly as good as Silverbulletday -- not yet, at least -- and SBD got waxed in the Belmont. Took a chunk of money too.
