my take...as saw posted elsewhere...BIG would know!

since BB/CD will be going off at 1/20 COMBINED on pik-3-4's ect....yet one could realize 100/1 or GREATER if neither wins...

Shouldn't one just 'CAP' the race as if neither there on top and play accordingly...it's just a matter of math...just like poker...'per se'....????

I think the guy was suggesting as a hedge only and he also has a lot of ammo to throw at the race to cover himself.

In thinking that there was only a 5% chance for BB to lose he would be getting better than the 20-1 in the event that he does.He'd have to have the right horse to upset the Belmont and the right ones in all the other legs however.

The premise makes sense-the majority of pk4 and 6 tickets will have either BB or CD on them and it sounds like he really doesn't like CD.Get those two out and those things will pay gangbusters.On math it does make sense only if you have deep deep pockets and you're a sharp handicapper.

I'm in neither category so I'll just play the chalk on top and hope I can figure the under crap out.

If I were to play it his way with a hedge in the pk 4's it'd probably be Denis of Cork only.I don't like Macho Again the other horse he's likely using.

I'm another who's tossing Macho from consideration in the gimmicks. Liked him in the Preakness but this is a whole new ball game.

don't agree with your math, but I will play a pik 3 using the ALL button in the Belmont.
? x ? x 9=?
Hopefully I can cut down the first two legs to singles or 2(max 3 runners).
Torrential tstorms rocked the midwest last night, and are moving east very quickly.
With the NYRA penchant for going off-turf frequently, this could shrink field sizes(along with payoffs-particularly pik 3s/4s).

That is a nasty quarter crack which is obviously abscessing or infected. Can he win with it? Probably, but I am leaning back towards CASINO DRIVE as my main shot.

Yes--I am wavering like my backyard trees in last night's near tornado. I live in a wooded area, and spent 9pm-1am sitting in a dry spot on my back deck watching an incredible heat lightning show and rainstorm. Been a very dark eery morning also.
Hate to see this weather front hit Elmont.

Looks as if I have a few large fallen limbs to saw apart and dispose of b4 leaving for nyc.
Spider's work is never done, and I also have 9 abandoned infant kittens on my hands. If you will give them a nice home, I will drive them to you regardless where u live. They are absolutely beautiful.

Back to gambling this evening after the full card pps come out!

I always bet future field bet #2 for kent.d....it pays 6/1 every year...it comes in ave. of 3/1...and gives TREMENDOUS LEVERAGE!

This is a similiar situation...BB is OBVIOUSLY the best horse...but he ain't gonna win 80% of the time in the circumstances he'll be facing sat...and he's not 100% to boot!

I MUST bet against...even if he wins...so be it.

The MOST leverage is pik 3,4's....I would go ALL/ALL/no BB...actually will do that!

HUMOR me for sec...and give some thought's to the UNDER card!

Sammy

If you play an all/all/No BB pk 3

You'd use who in the Belmont?

9 x 11 x ???

Not a bad idea,but not cheap either if you're using multiple horses.

But 800 would get you what 10k?

But alas...will gamble some...and throw out CD as well...prob. bet a couple other's twice...

But if you do it 10x's in identical situations...you're...way way ahead...gotta figure the tax man as well...still!

pik 3's, 4's..no BB..max lev. here........

THEN...tri's, super's...BB on TOP only...as hedge play...no CD...OR figure a 30/1 shot...and key on him to hit underneath...

I like I.crane...if he hits the exacta in derby....(IDIOT RIDE)...clean house, ALAS....will BET back...underneath BB...

Again...it's a gamble...

OTHER thoughts?

I'm going to dump most of my money on the pk 4 with BB singled on the end.Need a shot or two in one of the middle legs.

Playing a small saver pk 3 using Dennis of Cork and Icabad in the Belmont just in case of a fluke outcome.

5 x 3 x 2

As for the race itself-Icabad is my key under BB in tris and supers.Not a lot of value on Dennis of Cork,and if Casino scratches-Dennis becomes the chalk under play-really no value at all.

I am with you big on Icabad as my key horse under Big Brown. Used him heavily in the Preakness but the rough trip cost me dearly. He's lightly raced, a horse who likes a tussle, quite a bit of stamina in his pedigree, improving Beyers (albeit still low ones) and a nice Tgraph comparatively speaking. I think he can improve and why not at a price. Denis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, and Anak Nakal are the ones I'll likely use for the 3rd spot. Heck, a smarter play might be to key the BB-IC-All tri for $8.

The tri BB-IC-ALL and BB-ALL-IC is a very good bet. IF Casino Drive and DOC run out it could pay pretty good and it's only 16 dollars. You could get really bold an get one like IC-BB-ALL, IC-ALL-BB or you could go
CD-BB-DOC/IC/ALL and CD-BB-DOC/ALL/IC and IC/CD-BB-DOC/ALL thats $72 total and it gives you a chance to beat CD and BB while keying your horse in 1st,2nd, and 3rd.

Robert, not sure about the will pays now with CD out but I don't see BB getting beat. I know fluky things happen and I may change my mind but at this point, just him on top. Of course, I'll probably play something contrarian as I am sure, much like I saw happen in the Preakness, there will be more than a few people who play a BB/All/All ticket.

live to pik 3 (did not do p4...too much or not enough stones)

cover'd w/3478910

hedged w/$5 tri's 1/3??10...assorted combo's by odds.

5 mins to post...see how stupid I was!