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Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:46 PM 

I seem to recall some fireman? a few years ago- think he had the huge super- Breeders' Cup when Cat Thief et al exploded the tote at GP. He was twice lucky- because he bought 50 one-dollar quick picks- and the winner had popped out of the printer and was laying on the side of the machine. The teller remembered him and the ticket was in sequence. 800k? or thereabouts. Yeah- atswhatimtalkinabout (4th)

 
 

gallantbob
(Login gallantbob)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 2:06 PM 

I had a real good day at GP that day thanks to Anees and I was live to four or five in the Classic, none of them named Behrens, LDK or Cat Thief. I thought Cat Thief the most likely omission and played him at 16-1 over my live horses, none of them named Budroyale.

My wife couldn't understand my grumpy mood at a "celebratory" dinner but she also didn't know I had $20k riding on a flying Chester House.

 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 2:48 PM 

...and here I thought you were just grumpy because of the lousy accomodations you lamented about at Gulfstream! Man- was that really 10yrs ago??

 
 
Cherokee Scot
(Login CherokeeeScot)

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 4:27 PM 

Thought these statistics from Bloodhorse on winning post positions since 1900 was very interesting. For Looking and Lucky and Sidney's Candy post #1 has been much more successful than post #20 and Dublin and HomeboyKris will be looking to break a more than century old jinx.

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:

1 12
2 9
3 8
4 10
5 12
6 6
7 8
8 10
9 4
10 10
11 3
12 3
13 4
14 2
15 3
16 3
17 0
18 1
19 0
20 2


    
This message has been edited by CherokeeeScot on Apr 28, 2010 4:29 PM


 
 
CroixBoy
(Login CroixBoy)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 4:37 PM 

So post 20 has more wins than posts 17,18 and 19? OK, I'm starting to feel a little better.

 
 
'shoes
(Login wshoes)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 6:50 PM 

It would be nice to see that on a percentage basis. There is a #1 post every year, how many years has there been a 20 post since 1900?

I don't think the 20 is bad, if the horse doesn't win, that will not be the reason.

'shoes

 
 
Warren
(Login goldandmyrrh)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 12:09 AM 

#20 is bad, and so is #1, which hasn't even hit the board in 22 years. Rarely does a post draw mean so much as it did today. Changes the entire complexion and analysis of the race. SC and LAL are now both moved from the category of "possible winners" to "use on deep multi-race wager" status. And that's big, as they'll both go off under 7/1, possibly go off as the 2 favorites.
.
I can't envision Sydney getting the trip from way out there. He's quite talented, but no Big Brown. He'll be in the 7-10 path into the first turn. Pressing a pace he's never seen on a sloppy dirt track that he's never seen. He's a toss now. #1 Looking At Lucky may be able to work out a mid-pack trip, and conceivably win if everything goes his way. But there's no value betting on those if's. He's dead with the #1 post, most likely, and definitely a value bet-against toss at 5/1 or so.

 
 

Damascus
(Login Damascus007)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 12:16 AM 

Here's hoping that most of the crowd gets off Sid's Candy!

 
 
Cherokee Scot
(Login CherokeeeScot)

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 10:46 AM 

Shoes,

Just went through the records. Since 1900 there have been 15 fields with 20 or more runners . So strike rate for post 20 is 13% which is better than the 11% strike rate for post 1.

Cheers

CS


    
This message has been edited by CherokeeeScot on Apr 29, 2010 10:47 AM


 
 
'shoes
(Login wshoes)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 1:00 PM 

Cherokee Scott,

I didn't mean for you to do all that work, but I appreciate that you did. thanks.

I still don't think its a bad post with the right horse. I saw a stat a few years ago that measured the distance from the start to the turn and if you were able to drop in fairly efficiently it wasn't that much. I remember thinking at the time I would have thought it would have been more.

I also recall liking thunder gulch at his price but ultimately not betting him because of his auxiliary gate position, lesson learned for me.

'shoes

 
 
 
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