1.Looking at Lucky
3 Nobles Promise
4 Super Saver
5 Line of David
6 Stately Victor
7 American Lion
8 Deans Kitten
9 Make Music For Me
10 Paddy O Prado
11 Devil May Care
13 Jackson Bend
14 Mission Impazible
15 Discreetly Mine.
16 Awesome Act
20 Sidney's Candy
Backs to the drawing board......it couldn't have gone worse for the Cali faves. Those to the immediate inside of Sidney are not that fast, so he can probably clear them. Best hope is for a Big Brown sort of trip, laying 3 or 4 after the turn, but at best he'll be outside the whole way. If you're Gomez, how do you ride Lucky now? I don't think that horse is very aptly named...
Let me get this straight. A legit Triple Crown contender in Esky goes down to injury the week of the race. Now the ml fave - who finds more trouble than a runaway teen - draws the rail. The ml 2nd choice draws the 20 hole in a race with a decent amount of speed to his inside. To top it all off, it may rain as well. Is this some kind of a joke?
This message has been edited by Boozer_1 on Apr 28, 2010 1:01 PM
I seem to recall some fireman? a few years ago- think he had the huge super- Breeders' Cup when Cat Thief et al exploded the tote at GP. He was twice lucky- because he bought 50 one-dollar quick picks- and the winner had popped out of the printer and was laying on the side of the machine. The teller remembered him and the ticket was in sequence. 800k? or thereabouts. Yeah- atswhatimtalkinabout (4th)
I had a real good day at GP that day thanks to Anees and I was live to four or five in the Classic, none of them named Behrens, LDK or Cat Thief. I thought Cat Thief the most likely omission and played him at 16-1 over my live horses, none of them named Budroyale.
My wife couldn't understand my grumpy mood at a "celebratory" dinner but she also didn't know I had $20k riding on a flying Chester House.
Thought these statistics from Bloodhorse on winning post positions since 1900 was very interesting. For Looking and Lucky and Sidney's Candy post #1 has been much more successful than post #20 and Dublin and HomeboyKris will be looking to break a more than century old jinx.
Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:
#20 is bad, and so is #1, which hasn't even hit the board in 22 years. Rarely does a post draw mean so much as it did today. Changes the entire complexion and analysis of the race. SC and LAL are now both moved from the category of "possible winners" to "use on deep multi-race wager" status. And that's big, as they'll both go off under 7/1, possibly go off as the 2 favorites.
I can't envision Sydney getting the trip from way out there. He's quite talented, but no Big Brown. He'll be in the 7-10 path into the first turn. Pressing a pace he's never seen on a sloppy dirt track that he's never seen. He's a toss now. #1 Looking At Lucky may be able to work out a mid-pack trip, and conceivably win if everything goes his way. But there's no value betting on those if's. He's dead with the #1 post, most likely, and definitely a value bet-against toss at 5/1 or so.
I didn't mean for you to do all that work, but I appreciate that you did. thanks.
I still don't think its a bad post with the right horse. I saw a stat a few years ago that measured the distance from the start to the turn and if you were able to drop in fairly efficiently it wasn't that much. I remember thinking at the time I would have thought it would have been more.
I also recall liking thunder gulch at his price but ultimately not betting him because of his auxiliary gate position, lesson learned for me.