<< Previous Topic | Next Topic >>Return to Forum  

Derby Draw

April 28 2010 at 12:19 PM
Cherokee Scot  (Login CherokeeeScot)

1.Looking at Lucky
2.Ice Box
3 Nobles Promise
4 Super Saver
5 Line of David
6 Stately Victor
7 American Lion
8 Deans Kitten
9 Make Music For Me
10 Paddy O Prado
11 Devil May Care
12 Conveyance
13 Jackson Bend
14 Mission Impazible
15 Discreetly Mine.
16 Awesome Act
17 Dublin
18 Backtalk
19 Homeboykris
20 Sidney's Candy

 
 Respond to this message   
AuthorReply
Lance
(Login Photofnish)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:23 PM 

Ouch. The value of my future bet on Sidney just took a nosedive.

 
 


(Login elk-)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:25 PM 

jesus,  as if it wasn't hard enough.

top 2 choices get 1 & 20

Draw looks like it forces a quicker pace then I was thinking.   Convance will want to clear a  AL, SS, LOD.  SC has to go some, try to clear at least homeboy & DM.  or try to drop in behind them?

 


 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:28 PM 

Wow- agreed Elk. Well that helps prop the prices on those bookends! Hello- racing gods? What's this about? lol

 
 


(Login TenFurlongs)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:32 PM 

Well now...

Sidney's Candy (20) gets sent. Period.

Homeboykris (19) gets sent. No choice.

Discreetly Mine (15) gets sent. Ditto.

Conveyance (12) will see a bunch of horses on his right early on. Goes on with it quickly.

Super Saver (4) drew the best, I think. Can sit in behind the early crush.

Baffert is probably thrilled (NOT) with the rail for Looking At Lucky (1).

Mission Impazible (14) and Dublin (17) have some extra work to do now.


TW

 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:41 PM 

American Lion drew the best- he'll sit second flight and his Tiznow will carry him home. MY wiseguy. I'm only gonna say it once. wink.gif

 
 
Lance
(Login Photofnish)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:46 PM 

Dudley: When I saw the draw, I said the same thing to myself -- "American Lion drew great." I think he's in with a legit shot here.

I also think Paddy O'Prado drew well, as did Stately Victor, who can keep Ice Box to his inside all the way around.

 
 
Jay C
(Login nola22)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:48 PM 

You guys get a 30-1 ml too. Pretty absurd when NP and Conveyance are at 12-1 and Jackson is at 15.


    
This message has been edited by nola22 on Apr 28, 2010 12:49 PM


 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:49 PM 

Ice Box is where he wants to be- just saved him the trip of sliding over after the break.

 
 

'gooch
(Login frangooch)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 12:55 PM 

Backs to the drawing board......it couldn't have gone worse for the Cali faves. Those to the immediate inside of Sidney are not that fast, so he can probably clear them. Best hope is for a Big Brown sort of trip, laying 3 or 4 after the turn, but at best he'll be outside the whole way. If you're Gomez, how do you ride Lucky now? I don't think that horse is very aptly named...

 
 

Racing Gods
(Login spanky126)
UpInClass Member

PLUS...

April 28 2010, 12:56 PM 

don't foget about the weather....lol

[linked image]


    
This message has been edited by spanky126 on Apr 28, 2010 1:05 PM


 
 

(Login Boozer_1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:00 PM 

Let me get this straight. A legit Triple Crown contender in Esky goes down to injury the week of the race. Now the ml fave - who finds more trouble than a runaway teen - draws the rail. The ml 2nd choice draws the 20 hole in a race with a decent amount of speed to his inside. To top it all off, it may rain as well. Is this some kind of a joke?


    
This message has been edited by Boozer_1 on Apr 28, 2010 1:01 PM


 
 


(Login spanky126)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:08 PM 

Spanks Superfecta is starting to take shape nicely...

Ice Box
Stately Victor
American Lion
TBA

 
 

(Login Boozer_1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:10 PM 

Spank, you do know that for the super you have to correctly select the 1st 4 finishers right? wink.gif


    
This message has been edited by Boozer_1 on Apr 28, 2010 1:11 PM


 
 


(Login gallantbob)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:19 PM 

TBA to round out the super? I can outrun that fraud.

Has there ever been a more inappropriately named horse than Lookin' At Lucky? Hey, Reggie, does LAL have gears? Perhaps he's now good enough to key in second and third but the trip gets him beat?


    
This message has been edited by gallantbob on Apr 28, 2010 1:25 PM
This message has been edited by gallantbob on Apr 28, 2010 1:23 PM


 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:26 PM 

Oddly I had a premonition that something like this could emerge from the pill pull. Unfortunately, the visions ceased there! Oye.

 
 


(Login elk-)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:28 PM 

you'd have to have me at gunpoint to name a horse "lucky" kind of like touching the money...


 
 

big daddy
(Login bigdaddy-915)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:31 PM 

a most excellent draw....I like it!


b.d.

 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:35 PM 

Anyone know if you can do trifecta 'quick picks' on TwinSpires? seriously.

 
 


(Login gallantbob)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:37 PM 

Seemed to work for that Missouri convenience store clerk. Could pay close to that too.

 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 1:46 PM 

I seem to recall some fireman? a few years ago- think he had the huge super- Breeders' Cup when Cat Thief et al exploded the tote at GP. He was twice lucky- because he bought 50 one-dollar quick picks- and the winner had popped out of the printer and was laying on the side of the machine. The teller remembered him and the ticket was in sequence. 800k? or thereabouts. Yeah- atswhatimtalkinabout (4th)

 
 


(Login gallantbob)
Stewards

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 2:06 PM 

I had a real good day at GP that day thanks to Anees and I was live to four or five in the Classic, none of them named Behrens, LDK or Cat Thief. I thought Cat Thief the most likely omission and played him at 16-1 over my live horses, none of them named Budroyale.

My wife couldn't understand my grumpy mood at a "celebratory" dinner but she also didn't know I had $20k riding on a flying Chester House.

 
 

Dudley
(Login Dudley2)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 2:48 PM 

...and here I thought you were just grumpy because of the lousy accomodations you lamented about at Gulfstream! Man- was that really 10yrs ago??

 
 
Cherokee Scot
(Login CherokeeeScot)

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 4:27 PM 

Thought these statistics from Bloodhorse on winning post positions since 1900 was very interesting. For Looking and Lucky and Sidney's Candy post #1 has been much more successful than post #20 and Dublin and HomeboyKris will be looking to break a more than century old jinx.

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:

1 12
2 9
3 8
4 10
5 12
6 6
7 8
8 10
9 4
10 10
11 3
12 3
13 4
14 2
15 3
16 3
17 0
18 1
19 0
20 2


    
This message has been edited by CherokeeeScot on Apr 28, 2010 4:29 PM


 
 
CroixBoy
(Login CroixBoy)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 4:37 PM 

So post 20 has more wins than posts 17,18 and 19? OK, I'm starting to feel a little better.

 
 

(Login wshoes)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 28 2010, 6:50 PM 

It would be nice to see that on a percentage basis. There is a #1 post every year, how many years has there been a 20 post since 1900?

I don't think the 20 is bad, if the horse doesn't win, that will not be the reason.

'shoes

 
 

(Login goldandmyrrh)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 12:09 AM 

#20 is bad, and so is #1, which hasn't even hit the board in 22 years. Rarely does a post draw mean so much as it did today. Changes the entire complexion and analysis of the race. SC and LAL are now both moved from the category of "possible winners" to "use on deep multi-race wager" status. And that's big, as they'll both go off under 7/1, possibly go off as the 2 favorites.
.
I can't envision Sydney getting the trip from way out there. He's quite talented, but no Big Brown. He'll be in the 7-10 path into the first turn. Pressing a pace he's never seen on a sloppy dirt track that he's never seen. He's a toss now. #1 Looking At Lucky may be able to work out a mid-pack trip, and conceivably win if everything goes his way. But there's no value betting on those if's. He's dead with the #1 post, most likely, and definitely a value bet-against toss at 5/1 or so.

 
 


(Login Damascus007)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 12:16 AM 

Here's hoping that most of the crowd gets off Sid's Candy!

 
 
Cherokee Scot
(Login CherokeeeScot)

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 10:46 AM 

Shoes,

Just went through the records. Since 1900 there have been 15 fields with 20 or more runners . So strike rate for post 20 is 13% which is better than the 11% strike rate for post 1.

Cheers

CS


    
This message has been edited by CherokeeeScot on Apr 29, 2010 10:47 AM


 
 
'shoes
(Login wshoes)
UpInClass Member

Re: Derby Draw

April 29 2010, 1:00 PM 

Cherokee Scott,

I didn't mean for you to do all that work, but I appreciate that you did. thanks.

I still don't think its a bad post with the right horse. I saw a stat a few years ago that measured the distance from the start to the turn and if you were able to drop in fairly efficiently it wasn't that much. I remember thinking at the time I would have thought it would have been more.

I also recall liking thunder gulch at his price but ultimately not betting him because of his auxiliary gate position, lesson learned for me.

'shoes

 
 
Current Topic - Derby Draw  Respond to this message   
  << Previous Topic | Next Topic >>Return to Forum