<< Previous Topic | Next Topic >>Return to Forum  

Taking a stand against

April 28 2010 at 12:46 PM
ski  (Login ski_)
UpInClass Member

Sidney's Candy

I was really neutral last night on SC and LAL and wanted to wait as long as I could before getting into one or both camps. As I went through each contender one by one with BRIS last night (Bubba and I were going through this together), I'm doing all sort of comparisons, looking to see how hot a race was, what a horse did with it, compared to another, E2, LP, etc...

I get to Sidney's Candy and I look at the figs, and my jaw hits the floor. He's never really been asked to run too much, and now with the 20 hole, I'm flat out tossing this guy from every ticket I have.

Sorry for those of you that like him/love him, I don't. Good luck with him.

 
 Respond to this message   
AuthorReply
'shoes
(Login wshoes)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 12:54 PM 

Ski, what do you mean by never been asked to run much? why does he get killed for the SA Derby pace when my recollection is that it was about the same as the Wood? Am I wrong on that?

'shoes

 
 

gallantbob
(Login gallantbob)
Stewards

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 1:13 PM 

Because he was the pace setter, not a chaser. Lone, quality frontrunner on a slow pace among the easiest trips in racing whatever the surface. Hasn't changed since Tom Ainslie.

Without any figure edge, all my experience says to downgrade those numbers. I can't rescue him from the discard pile on a gut feeling he might rate and finish.

HAving said that, in this field he just might be all that and I would not be stunned to see him draped in roses. I'm just betting it won't happen.

 
 

Damascus
(Login Damascus007)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 1:58 PM 

I smell 11-1 on SC coming.

 
 

Jason Baker
(Login JBaker826)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 4:37 PM 

At 11-1 I am in, and I am one who is on record taking a stand against because of all poly PPs. Anything 10-1 or better and he figures more prominently in my tickets.

 
 

gallantbob
(Login gallantbob)
Stewards

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 4:48 PM 

If he's standing between me and cashing a pick four, I reserve every right to cover him. The higher his odds drift, the better.

 
 
CroixBoy
(Login CroixBoy)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 4:53 PM 

Now that's the BluntBobby I've come to respect and love as a handicappa'. The right to reserve is ALWAYS yours.

 
 
ski
(Login ski_)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 8:59 PM 

Shoes,

When I looked at BRIS, the mere fact that so many others had much better pace figs was astounding to me. I'm going through alphabetically, and I had reserved my right to stay away from LAL and SC for the last few weeks.

I got to LAL and saw that he was very much a player based on his figs.

I expected to see the same, or close to similar numbers for SC and when I got to him, I was floored...really floored.

In the 20, he's forced to go, or he's strung up 7 wide the entire trip. I just don't see where he makes much of a run.

Now....rain...hmmmmmm....I just don't know. But my tickets are going far away from this one, might play him with some bombs in the Oak/Derby Double saver, or something.

 
 
'shoes
(Login wshoes)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 9:19 PM 

ski

Fair enough, I respect your opinion.

I have watched all of his races, and I see a horse that has a very fluid efficient stride who can accelerate smoothly and who picked himself right up and went after a stumble out of the gate.

I'm not troubled by the post at all. He has plenty of time to secure a position before the first turn and Talamo will be able to survey the rest of he field. Will he rate behind horses as easily as he has on the lead is the $64,000 question.

I don't see him as a value at 5-1 in this field but since I have the luxury of 33-1 from pool 2 I don't have to bet him to win, I'm a P3, P4 player and I think he's a more likely winner than any other one horse I can think of. That said I'll being going somewhere between 4-7 deep on some tickets and the pay-off potential will be better with almost everyone else.

'shoes

 
 
ski
(Login ski_)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 9:26 PM 

Shoes...looks like I might be bowing to you and Croix come Saturday night. Good luck with him bud!

 
 
'shoes
(Login wshoes)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 9:44 PM 

ski,

This is as wide open on paper to me as any derby I can think of and i go back a long long way. I'll likely be bowing to someone else. I'd just like to get to the derby alive to 4-7 horses on a P3 or P4. I haven't handicapped the earlier races yet but just glancing at the fields they look pretty da-n good!

'shoes

 
 

gallantbob
(Login gallantbob)
Stewards

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 10:10 PM 

" I see a horse that has a very fluid efficient stride who can accelerate smoothly"

On Pro-Ride that's true. But his dirt stride looks something like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqhlQfXUk7w

 
 

JOHN
(Login SundaySilence)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 28 2010, 10:17 PM 

i didnt like SC before the draw because of the slow easy leads and now even less with the post. I think he will be used early on to get positioning and fading before the turn for home.

Beyonce(HALO)+Terrance Trent Darby(WISHINGWELL)= SUNDAY SILENCE

 
 
JR
(Login Jetsbuster)
UpInClass Member

Re: Taking a stand against

April 29 2010, 12:00 PM 

SC will be an easy toss for me. Many reasons not to like. Appears one dimensional--loves the poly. These types rarely transition well to dirt. His figures are consistent but not explosive, similar to turf horses. Running style will keep him too close to hot pace and his pedigree is highly suspect as he is out of a Storm Cat mare. Add the low value odds and bad post and he becomes an easy toss.

 
 
 
  Respond to this message   
  << Previous Topic | Next Topic >>Return to Forum