RUSSIA'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY: Moscow's Mideast Challenge to America

February 15, 2006

RUSSIA'S NEW FOREIGN POLICY

Moscow's Mideast Challenge to America

By Charles Hawley

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia seemed to cede much of its influence in the Middle East to the United States. No longer. Now, Moscow appears eager to present itself as a counterbalance to Washington in the region -- with major geopolitical consequences.

News from the Middle East can be confusing. And that has been especially true recently. One day, we read that Iran is halting all talks concerning its controversial nuclear program. The next day, the Iranians have changed their mind.

One week we read that Hamas has won democratic elections in the Palestinian Authority. The next week, the US, Europe and Israel are refusing to speak with the terrorist group.

But their has been one constant: Russia. And Russian President Vladimir Putin's attempt to increase his country's influence in the Middle East.

Talks between Iran and the European Union -- over concerns that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons -- have been shelved indefinitely. And relations between Tehran and Washington consist of nothing but bellicose rhetoric these days. But Russia's ongoing, if not terribly productive, talks with Iran represent virtually the only official channel of communication still open with the mullahs.

Much the same can be said for Western relations with Hamas. After having backed the process which led to democratic elections in the Palestinian Authority, the United States is politically unable to negotiate with the winner -- and a report on Monday in the New York Times that the United States and Israel are considering ways to push Hamas out of power certainly can't have helped the situation. Europe, too, considers Hamas a terrorist organization and refuses to speak with them unless they renounce violence and accept Israel's right to exist. That seems clear enought, but then: Viola! Russia jumps into the fray and invites Hamas to Moscow for talks.

Following the United States

Russian influence in the Middle East, of course, is nothing new. The Soviet Union enthusiastically financed and armed Palestinian groups for decades in an attempt to counterbalance massive US aid for Israel. The Politburo in Moscow likewise hindered millions of Soviet Jews from emigrating to Israel partially out of fear they would become Israeli soldiers.

But following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin and other Russian leaders turned their backs on the Middle East. On the one hand, Russia had its own economic collapse to deal with. On the other hand, Yeltsin hoped that allowing the United States to take the lead in the Middle East would grease the gears of good relations with the Americans. Russia, in short, was hoping that following America's lead would be good for its economy.

But it didn't quite work out that way. Now, in fact, there is a sizeable majority of policy makers in Moscow who think the disengagement policy has been a complete failure. According to George Friedman in a Tuesday article for the global security group Stratfor, the debate is now between those who want to chuck the entire strategy on the trash heap of history, and those who want to radically re-work it.

After all, not only did the strategy fail to do wonders for the Russian economy, but relations between Russia and the United States are more strained now than they have been since the Cold War. Not only does Russia have the impression that the United States is making inroads into its traditional sphere of influence -- by supporting democratic revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine -- but the Americans have frequently voiced their concerns with the direction Russia is taking domestically.

What hurts America helps Russia

As recently as Sunday, during an appearance on CBS's "Face the Nation," US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice took on the Putin government. "We are very concerned, particularly about some of the elements of democratization that seem to be going in the wrong direction," Rice said. I think the question is open as to where Russia's future development is going."

In redefining its foreign policy role in the world, Russia, according to Stratfor, is likewise redefining its position toward the United States. And one of Moscow's primary aims is to follow its own interests even if they frustrate US policies. Inviting Hamas to Moscow very definitely falls into that category as does shutting off gas supplies to Ukraine and Georgia earlier this year.

As Friedman puts it in his article: "Moscow's message is this: Do not assume that the failure of Russia to exercise its foreign policy options means that the Russians have no foreign policy options. Nothing Russia is getting from the United States in economic relations compensates for the geopolitical harm the United States is doing to Russia."

But Russia doesn't just have geopolitical interests in the Middle East. Close relations with the Iranians have led to a number of lucrative military and nuclear power plant contracts in recent years. Indeed, the missiles Iran is putting in place to defend its nuclear installations come from Russia as do many of the installations themselves. Syria's military too is supplied by Russian arms dealers. The United States, it hardly needs mentioning, isn't terribly impressed by either of these partnerships.

The Hamas lever

Russia's alliances in the Middle East, though, haven't been all back-slapping and agreement. Iran's on-again off-again negotiating strategy with both Europe and Russia has frayed nerves in the Kremlin as well. After months of resisting, Russia in the end supported the referral of Iran's nuclear program to the UN Security Council in early February. And recent statements indicate that patience is thin. Both Russia and France on Tuesday called on Iran to cease uranium enrichment. And Russian parliamentarian Konstantin Kosachev said on Tuesday: "The most important thing is that by March 6" -- the next meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency -- "the international community has a clear answer: Does Iran accept or reject our offer?"

And when it comes to Saudi Arabia, Russia is especially skeptical. The Saudis, Moscow has long claimed, is the engine behind Chechnya's Muslim insurgency. The rise of Muslim groups elsewhere in Central Asia is likewise connected to Saudi Arabia the Russians allege.

By supporting Hamas, Russia might be hoping to signal to a number of groups in the Middle East that there is an option against the powerful hegemony of the United States in the region. It's also part of Russia's long-term bet since the country has a growing number of Muslims within its borders -- some 15 million currently. Furthermore, the problems encountered by US strategy in the region seem to indicate that it won't be turning into a pro-Western cradle of democracy any time soon. Working with Muslim states may in the end prove more profitable than working against them.

So far, Putin has been pushing all the right buttons in making new friends in the region. His apt analysis of the Hamas triumph in the Palestinian elections certainly can't have hurt. The result, he said, "was a very serious blow to the American efforts in the Middle East." Hamas, Russian officials are hoping, will visit Moscow before the month is out.

With additional reporting by SPIEGEL staff

http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,401078,00.html