Where is the EU Train Going?

Several months ago I asked a former upper-level foreign affairs official where the adventure with the EU was going. Is full membership possible? I had listened to various general assessments earlier. When I insisted that I was curious about his person opinion, he replied, “I don’t see any possibility for full membership. It seems to me that things will always go like this.”

I guess there are always theories put forward about others, various positions and events on the EU subject, but personal opinions are not being voiced very clearly.

Of course decisions can’t be reduced down to yes or no answers. There are many interconnected situations and developments. For example, there must be more supporters than there are now of Turkey’s EU membership in a general, equal and fair way that is compatible with regulations. Opinions that general rules have not been fully violated, but that more obstacles are created for Turkey as well as opinions that Turkey is being tested more than others, and other pessimistic notions are not completely unfounded. Treatment understood in this way removes the seeds of sympathy for the EU project and pushes people to the opposite front.

Current EU Scenarios

Those in power as well as the European Union need to understand that Turkey is not the same as it was in the 1980s. Before the 80s it was easy to keep foreign affairs issues apart from public debate, public positions and public action by calling them “state policy.” It was possible to pursue these kinds of policies without concern of public support and political results. But it is not like that today. As progress is made on the EU road, as democracy gains strength, and as the people’s opinions, actions and support for policies become more important, an odd contradiction appears regarding the European Union. It becomes more difficult for the government to continue its EU policies as the people increasingly slide toward the opposition. In fact, putting aside an unpopular EU membership and the European Union’s current attitude of constantly testing and setting up obstacles on the race track, even if they have a fairer approach no one should assume there is an better administration that can sustain this process.

If our EU friends really believe that in the future the Turkish public is going to be a part of the EU public, shouldn’t they have to show to Turkish public opinion some of the sensitivity they now show to the probable attitudes of their own public? If they do not show this sensitivity, than it would be more realistic to assume that they have a different plan for the future, instead of thinking that they lack the foresight of a Western mentality. In short, a large majority of those advising today that Turkey should do this and Turkey should do that including those “friendly” guides who say if you don’t do this, it will be too bad do not believe that Turkey will be a full EU member. They are behaving in this way as a political requirement or just in case.

It can be said that those who have an opinion regarding Turkey’s EU membership came to such a view by giving priority to several themes. For circles with Islamic sensitivities gathered under the broad umbrella of conservatism, the European Union is a project that will provide more religious freedom, resolve secular-Islamic tension on the basis of rights and freedoms and will restrict secular circles. These messages are coming from the European Union in a muted voice, but from America in a clearer way. For liberal-democratic circles, the EU process will accelerate the modernization project of Turkey, disperse internal obstacles that its own internal dynamics were unable to overcome, and make it a part of the “civilized world.” Like with most cases, the leftists are quite confused on the matter of the European Union. The People’s Republic Party (CHP) has the necessary history to affirm the European Union, but, on the other hand, the elitist circle that is not in the alliance today is opposed to EU membership that will empty the base of governmental power. For this reason, the CHP possesses a strange EU language that connects both positive and negative assessments with a conjunction. This vague position that is presented with a flexible, incendiary populism is trying to be used in a productive way. Difficult to be placed on the left, but with no possibility of finding a place on the right in the current political scene, the Democratic Workers Party (DEP) is assessing the European Union as a vehicle to gain new ethnic-based rights.

These are EU scenarios based on political categories. There are also EU approaches comprised of socio-economic categories. At the top of the lists of those who will be happy for Turkey to have full membership under any circumstances comes big capital. For them, EU membership means that both their economic relations and their life styles will be based on sounder foundations.

One small problem is the aloof attitude toward the European Union of some elitist circles the current administration is standing close to, even if temporarily. Owners of and workers in middle-sized businesses (called KOBIs) have expectations that their share in the market will increase with EU membership and that they will attain better living standards. Concerns on the subject of the elimination of some KOBIs during the membership process – some estimate one in four - are not very great. Apparently an optimistic perspective is preventing negative scenarios.

However, this segment’s strong nationalist and conservative tendencies are producing a noticeable opposition to the EU’s trusteeship policies. It is obvious that when an important gap appears between references to the economic expectations and worldview of this segment, most will choose the latter. For the roots they come from, the public leadership role they have taken on in the social environment they live in and the real economic relations shaped here will force them in this direction.

Different socio-economic social segments

Workers and public officials comprise the segment that is farthest from the perspective of seeing the EU issue only from the angle of their own interests. For the “political consciousness” of these two social segments has been formed by collective sensitivities beyond an approach focusing only on itself. As Marx said, these circles, who volunteer for a mission for the purpose of “representing those who cannot represent themselves,” look at the European Union from the tension amid institutional representation with their own prerequisites.

In these circles there is no synchronization between EU policies and work done and professional solidarity. However, at all times there is an aloof stance regardless of critical or positive circumstances. As for villagers, they are not sure what benefit the European Union will bring them. In conditions where the European Union is mentioned this much, curtailments aimed at their support and high costs automatically puts villagers in a position of being cautious and negative.

Due to their profession, politicians still see the European Union as a means. Does not even the Justice and Development Party (AKP), who came to power on their own in 2002 and who rolled up their sleeves and took the European Union as their most important project, put into operational circulation a dialectic that follows the graphics of social support?

While EU support has been recently diminishing, the AKP’s efforts to make stronger statements and higher negotiations lines is an indication of this. In one respect this is not bad. It is possible to take consolation in the fact that demos are gaining importance. However, while demos are gaining importance, is politics sliding from representation of people towards support of means as in the EU example? This question is not only important for the European Union, but for many other issues.

I guess for now we are walking in the direction mentioned by the retired bureaucrat. As for our final destination, it is still too early to tell. Yet when all the data is stacked up, it appears that the vague special privilege partnership position remains behind the fog. While such a result will not surprise anyone, it is more compatible with the mixed expectations of various social segments.

08.12.2006
http://www.zaman.com/?bl=commentary&alt=&hn=39050