I don't buy the whole medal per capita formula. It's a flawed standard.
Success is measured better when weighed by importance of the event. Like I would think winning a bunch of table tennis medals is huge in China not so much in Nigeria. A soccer gold in Mexico would be huge and make the Mexican Olympics a success. You know Brazil expects to win in volleyball and mens soccer it would have a tough time calling anything short of gold a success. In Jamaica it's track. Montenegro would love a Water polo medal. The Russians expect to win alot of medals in combat sports. The USA success will be judged by success or failure in womens soccer, basketball, womens gymnastics, swimming and track. I think winning the medal count would be tarnished if the USA lost in basketball.