Try to guess the first day that all ice has left the surface of Lake Erie from east to west. Post the date of your guess here.

April 16 2009

April 8

Bob predicts May 10, 2009 Mother's Day.

I hope that we have clear sky for the day before the ice is gone, and the day that all the ice has totally melted away.

Mr. Modis:


http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/region_map.html


CUT OFF FOR GUESSING ON 31 March 2009

Ice off of Lake Erie on 18 April 2009.

I think it is going to remain frozen for the rest of the year right into next winter. That is really gonna suck. I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I am pretty sure I am right on this one. But if I was forced to pick a date, and go against my true beliefs, well, maybe April 29th, the day I return from Mexico. That would be pretty sweet.

Garrett

Thayer predicts the 29th of April 2009.

My guess is April 22, the weather office is calling for warn April, May and June...

A[ril 21st

Coming up on the guessing dead line.

Ice Boom camera in Buffalo/Fort Erie:

http://www.iceboom.nypa.gov/include.htm

Your 10 day forecast has all low temps above freezing.

It's 27F right now, so I will give the first 10 days of April to do her thing and say:

April 10, 2009

the last solid of ice will melt precisely at 4:38pm on that day.

some swell from yesterday:
http://www.mydeo.com/videodownload.asp?YID=229&CID=257366

Ryan

Actual ice forecast for Lake Erie http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/FECN19CWIS/20090401000000_FECN19CWIS_0004299308.txt):

Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair

Above normal temperatures were observed over the forecast area. There is
more ice than normal in the eastern section of the lake.

Forecast ice conditions from April 01st to April 15th

Temperatures will be near normal for the period.

1. Lake St Clair - Ice free.
2. Western Basin - Ice free.
3. The rest of Lake Erie - Ice free in the western half of the lake. The
ice in the eastern section of the lake will gradually melt but at
mid-April loose areas of thick lake ice will still be found near
Buffalo. South-westerly winds could occasionally develop strong ice
pressure in the eastern end of the lake.

Forecast ice conditions from April 16th to April 30th

Near to above normal temperatures are forecast for the second half of
April.

1. Lake St Clair - Ice free.
2. Western Basin - Ice free.
3. The rest of Lake Erie - The rest of the ice will melt early in the
period then ice free.

Adam it was extremely hot today in Buffalo. Tomorrow looks like it might be the ice free day.

Good news for the Erie guys & gals. Enough surf in my neck of the woods to keep me happy for now, what a great Spring thus far!

Yesterday, live from New York it was April Fools Day.

Look at how fast the ice is melting. We have about a week at this rate before the ice is gone. The melt down is at warp speed.





Time to take out the ice boom. Winter ice will be gone SOON!

The ice boom between Buffalo, New York and Fort Erie, Ontario, at the source of the Niagara River is supposed to be removed when there is less than 250 square miles of ice on Lake Erie.

The most recent MODIS satellite image shows there is less than 100 square miles of ice on Lake Erie.

The sooner the Lake Erie ice boom goes the quicker the ice will clear and the warmer it will get along the shores of eastern Lake Erie. Also our home heating bills will decrease along the lake.

Magilla,
Whomever is in charge of taking the ice boom out, I tipped them an extra $10 to leave it in until the day before I predicted the lake would be ice free.
Ryan

Ya Who!!!!!!!!!!!


Ya Who!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Check out the sign of good surfing luck.

There is a Hawaiian shaped hook of sediment
in the water at the end of Long Point, Ontario
in Lake Erie. This I take as an omen of good
luck for local surfers this Spring.



The ice is a sliver on the North Shore
now.

Dukes in Maitland looks open.

P.C. is iced in.


There is far less than 250 miles
of Lake Erie ice at this moment.


Ya Who!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Maybe this will be the ice free week? It looks very promising.

No winner yet.

Too many clouds today for a space confirmation of possible total clearance of the ice today. On the 12th the MODIS image did show all our surf breaks in northeast Lake Erie are open for 2009 surf season but some ice on the U.S. side near Buffalo.

The ice is gone from all of our surf breaks!

Friday,17 April 2009 is the official day that we can declare that all ice has been cleared off of Lake Erie.

The MODIS image on the 14th of April 2009 still showed ice off of Angola, New York on the south shore of Lake Erie.

The sky was too cloudy on the 15th and 16th of April 2009 over south eastern Lake Erie.

Today, 17 April 2009 we have the first clear MODIS image that shows the ice has totally disappeared off of Lake Erie.

This is the MODIS image from 17 April 2009:

Magilla,
I was expecting you to be out there with a magnifying glass, examining every rock crevice for the solid form of water? Your judging this from a satellite image? I expected higher standards and accuracy! Ha ha.

Great image! Let the games begin.

Ryan

"

Ryan there is too
much territory to
cover for any one surfer
or any army of surfers
to cover in a day,
week, or month.



Mr. MODIS is our
big brudda in the sky.
No ice sheet, floating
bobber, or slushy can
hide from his spacial eye.

I was able to get out east of Port Colborne on April 18th. Its a beautiful thing.

Open water and Spring surf. It couldn't be a better time to be a Great Lakes surfer. Adios Winter!

yeah good riddance! no more numb feet.