You cannot win with just ordinary goal-tending when you give up as many shots as the Tigers do every night.
Over their last ten games, the Tigers are 4 wins and 6 losses. They beat Couchiching, Vaughan and Buffalo twice. But that string of wins, they still allowed 141 shots against for an average of 35 per game. In other words, they got away with the habit simply because they scored enough goals.
Sure it is easy to blame goal-tending and a less than competent back-end. After all, it is here that the buck stops.
The simple matter is that the they are giving up far too many shots on goal to give themselves a chance to win. I suspect the forwards may be saying; "well we are doing our job scoring, but the D isn't."
True they have scored a total of 42 goals over the last 10 games and that should be enough to win. But they have allowed 50 goals against. So what are they doing to prevent goals from being scored against them? It is called playing at both ends of the ice.
It often starts with forwards working their tiger tails off making sure that the opposition earns their shots on goal. They clearly are not doing that.
Over the last 10 games they have given up a whopping 38 shots a game against. When you do that consistently, you won't win very often unless you have Vaughan's Kevin Kapalka in net or a reasonable facsimile thereof. But not many teams have that luxury in goal.
The schedule has not been kind to the Tigers either. They have played Kingston and Oakville each once and Georgetown twice. And they have come out on the short end all four times.
Tiger fans tentative and SMC57 are experiencing what I saw in Kingston in the years 2004/05 and 2005/06 seasons. Simply put, they gave up way too many quality shots on goal to give themselves a consistent chance to win.
When Gregg Rosen committed to this team in a big way three years ago, the shots against started going down.
It had a lot to do with player personnel. But more than that, it also had as much to do with a renewed emphasis by the team, as a whole, towards limiting opposition shots.
The coaching staff, team brass and the players themselves had everything to do with it.
It is up to the Aurora Tigers whether they want to be there in the end with Georgetown, Oakville and Kingston.
And one place to start to to get those shots against per game down to well under 30 per game. They currently stand 9th in PIMS with just six teams better in that department.
Making sure they take good penalties as opposed to bad ones, is a way of helping to reduce those shots against counts.
If they do, they might well see their wins go up.
Stay tuned.
Wayjoy
This message has been edited by wayjoy on Oct 26, 2009 10:15 PM
good analysis about the number of shots however the reality is that the goaltending has been brutal. the back up is by far the better of the two and the gm says he is happy with his goaltending.
they gave away evans pasztor and doerkson for nothing . these would be the top 3 d on the tigers even when quinn was there( if his dad wasnt the coach). they had trouble recruiting top end d men because quinn way overplayed his son and others want to get some pp and pk and reg icetime so they can get scouted too!
the players that were so highly touted in the summer signing season have for the most part been a disaster . gm needs someone to actually see the players before he wastes cards on them!
now they have the quinn kid sitting awaiting a trade so there goes another quality player and CARD!
they need a goalie and at least 2 d men.
very few cards left and no room for error.
they have spent way too much money for a ninth place team.
Good comments, Wayne. It's hard to argue that there are likely several elements of Tiger play that could use a bit of improvement--and not to be ignorant of potential problems that are still lurking behind the bench and within ownership.
But from the beginning of the season, it was clear that the defense needed strengthening and the goaltending needs a .050 point Save Percentage upgrade to compete with the top teams. That hasn't changed at all, in spite of the numerous changes in the roster.
This team has good depth on the front end. No need for any substantive changes there. Their "big" guys haven't performed to their full potential yet, though, but I'm hoping that that steam engine is finally building some pressure and they'll break out.
I'm less certain what needs to be done with the defense, though. While there could be a bit more talent on the back end, I'm not convinced the problem is entirely talent based. A quality coach, for example, would be able to clean up their defensive systems play, which has been attrocious at times this year.
But, the single most important change they could make at this time is goaltending, and anyone who has seen the Tigers play this year would likely agree. Too many soft goals...
And, I'd also like to thank Wexdog for his informed, well thought out opinion as well.
While I feel there are many good things to hold on to with this team, their results have not been in the stellar category--the cynic would suggest they suck, but that's not telling the whole story either.
At the end of the day, without change, this team isn't going anywhere...change is required.
...but for those who have taken in a game or two with the Tigers, the games lately have been very entertaining games, in spite of the record. And that will keep me going back each Friday night.
"While I feel there are many good things to hold on to with this team, their results have not been in the stellar category--the cynic would suggest they suck, but that's not telling the whole story either."
"but that's not telling the whole story either." Holy hult ! (very sarcastic)Really ! Ga Damn no one else ever does that on this forum.
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As of Sunday November 22, the Aurora Tigers record sits at an even 12 wins and 12 losses. That is taking away all those silly columns like OTL, SOW etc.
For Tigers' fans this is far below what they have been accustomed to over the years of perennially contending.
I mentioned, at the outset, the Tigers had to cut their shots against down. Over the last 10 games, they have done just that. They have had an average of 31 shots against per game.
I thought about 30 against would give them a measure of success. It seems it has. Over that same 10 games, the Tigers are six wins and four losses.
Over those same 10 games they have scored 50 goals, by far enough to win most nights. They have allowed 34 against. Over 3 against is still to many.
But it is the penalties that stick out most obvious to me. They have amassed 591 PIMS in 24 games.
Where do they sit among the league's 15 teams? Only 3 teams are worse and 11 are better than they with lower totals.
I think that pretty much would explain why the Tigers have not been better this year thus far.
They have an adequate offence and their team defence and goaltending has improved though not nearly enough.
I cannot help but think it is because those PIMS are still too high for any bigger strides out of mediocrity.
The Aurora Tigers, with a rich tradition of winning are at the Invista Centre to take on the Big Red Machime, the Kingston Voyageurs this Thursday night November 26.
The last time they were here the Vees beat them in a hotly contested game 4-3.
The Tigers are definitly not where they want to be right now. To say that the big guns are not performing the way they should be is completly not true. The top line is outstanding and is a threat anytime they are on the ice. The second and third lines are different almost every game with the injury to Vandy and the recent suspensions. The biggest problem with this team is the lack of depth. The Third and fourth lines are just not doing what you want a third and fourth line to do and that is come off the ice every shift exhausted and "even" in the plus/minus. Morley and VanNatter are amazing to watch and Vandy and lovatsis are strong and tough. Team defence needs attention and goaltending although awesome at times needs to be more consistant. Both goalies need to play more and how do you do that when they are rotated. Both are starters if they can play regularily but neither has shown that they deserve to be the starter. They need to pick one and give him four or five starts and say this is your position to lose. My choice would be Black.
A lot of teams do not have the depth beyond the first line or two. It is a common problem, lzjed .
A top line that produces every night no matter who they play, is also a luxury few teams can boast of.
Those 3rd and 4th lines, if they are role players who execute extremely well, can be part of the winning formula.
They must be content to do their jobs within the construct of the team game plan. Often they are too few and far between. Everyone wants to contribute in a big way. It is only natural for hockey players to think and feel that way.
Truth is, you can still win, more often than not, if the players accept their roles as defined, commit to team defence every shift and execute the game plan without change.
If I had to guess, I think the Tigers will be there come playoff time. We are now at the half way point. This is the time when the team has to rise to the objective of being on a good run come playoff time.
wingfan, I guess you have some sort of a problem with Black as you have had negative comments about him before. I would only choose Black first because of some numbers. Yes Dumaresque has a better gaa at 3.65 compared to Black at 4.31, they have almost identical save percentages with Black ahead by one point at .878. The difference I see is in the teams that they have played against. Black has 2 vs Oak, 2 vs Geo and 1 vs King where Dumaresque has 1 vs Oak and 1 vs King. Neither one has stood on their head and stole a game yet this year, maybe that is what it will take to make the coaching staff pick one to go with. Until that happens I assume they will continue to rotate. Pastor bolted to the west on advice from his agent, Evans and Quinn couldn't have been expected to stay with their fathers being let go. I was surprized about Doerkson, he really stepped up in the play-offs last year and played both forward and d.
Wayjoy, you hit the nail on the head with everyone knowing, understanding and filling their roles. This is key. Cutting down on the penalties as you pointed out would help alot also.
Wex, what are your thoughts on the six teams below Aurora in the standings?
Current Topic - What's wrong with the Aurora Tigers?
