I agree with the person who said that if Amy Adams gets nominated, a lot has changed. That would be very anti-Academy like, to me.
However, I personally felt the academy started to change in 2004/2005, when they gave Best Picture to the 'darker,' more depressing MILLION DOLLAR BABY over the flashy, made for Oscar THE AVIATOR.
Of course, 2005/2006, CRASH got it over BROKEBACK, though I believe this has to do with a) being a touch iffy about giving a gay movie the top prize, and b) the fact that CRASH sent DVDs to everyone only a few days before the voting.
I think if the Academy had really started changing for the better, CAPOTE would have won Best Picture.
2006 showed it's well on it's way. Honestly, there wasn't a lot I disagreed with the Academy on last year, even with PAN'S LABYRINTH not winning Foreign and giving it to THE LIVES OF OTHERS to share the wealth. I still have to see it to believe it, because PAN'S was the best film of last year and one of the best of the decade.
To me, the trend seems to be based on scoring upsets. Not major upsets (a la CAPOTE), but not being boring and giving it to the best films with the most buzz even if they live up to it ('Brokeback') or they don't ('Dreamgirls.)
