From Paul Greengrass to Mike Leigh (and the snubbed Baz Luhrmann)...

http://www.theoscarigloo.com/2007/articles/lonedirector.html

Who are this year's top contenders to get the Lonely Director Spot?

Sidney Lumet "The Devil Knows You're Dead"
Sean Penn "Into the Wild"
David Fincher "Zodiac"
Mark Forster "The Kite Runner"

I would say that "The Kite Runner" and "Into the Wild" still have good best picture chances, but even if better films start getting more buzz, there's enough love for both Lumet and Penn and their work behind the camera to give them a good chance at nods.

you forgot completely about the man who had a lot of things you've mentioned going for him. Julian Schnabel. his films Basquiat and Before Night Falls were both great examples of his style as a director, and his latest The Diving Bell and The Butterfly seems to be an even better example of his style. also, he has not received n e nominations at all, which might be bcus of lack of buzz of earlier films, but that's not quite a problem this year (picking up Best Director at Cannes sure helped David Lynch get his lonely director spot for Mulholland Dr. and last year Alejandro Gonzales Inarittu won the same award and made into the Best Director lineup safely). Also, his film probably will not be recognized in any major categories, but his Director spot is not unsafe, he just needs some important critical precursors. if the film gets more love in America, i think the lonely spot is his.

Here's how it's looking for me...



Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men*
Ridley Scott - American Gangster
Joe Wright - Atonement
P.T. Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and The Butterfly



the coens are leading the pack for me. im questioning Scott's due status, because of a lack of a snub in his career (think Scorsese-Goodfellas) and i'm thinking they might have matching Best Director Oscars to go with their matching Best Original Screenplay Oscars. but we'll see. Joe Wright seems harmless to these big boys, and i think he is, but his nod is safe. P.T. Anderson's direction lacks because he's always going style over substance, but it seems to be the opposite for There Will Be Blood. i think he'll get this nod, so that it can carry him to a Best Adapted Screenplay win (he's more due than others in the same category) as for Schnabel, well im pretty sure youve read above, but he's not exactly a sure thing...


ALTERNATES

Mike Nichols - Charlie Wilson's War
from what i can see from the trailer, his directing is not inspired. it seems flacid and i think this movie is going to piss off Oscar voters a la Dreamgirls last year

Jason Reitman - Juno
he's been somewhat snubbed, he's directed the indie dramedy of the year (which there is always a spot reserved for in the Best Picture category) and from the trailer his work seems to be emmaculate, so he's a huge huge threat to anyone in this race. to be honest, i do see him making the final line-up

Marc Forster - The Kite Runner
he's been so blatantly snubbed for Finding Neverland, maybe the Academy just doen't like him. but he is still a solid contender

I think that if Penn or Forster get director nominations, their films will get picture nominations. It seems unlikely that either of these films will get enough support for director without picture following. However, I could see Kite Runner getting a Picture nomination without Forster getting nominated.
My pick for the fifth director spot right now is the Coen brothers. Their films can be difficult to swallow, but they are extremely well respected. Schnabel and Lumet are also appealing options.

Best Director:
1. Joe Wright- Atonement
2. Ridley Scott- American Gangster
3. Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood
4. The Coen Brothers- No Country for Old Men
5. Tim Burton- Sweeney Todd (only if the films gets a picture nomination)
6. Marc Forster- The Kite Runner
7. Sean Penn- Into the Wild
8. Mike Nichols- Charlie Wilson's War
9. Sidney Lumet- Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
10. Tony Gilroy- Michael Clayton

"Have you ever transcended space and time?"
"Yes... Well, space, not time... I have no idea what you're talking about."
-I Heart Huckabees

1. Ridley Scott - American Gangster
2. Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
3. David Fincher - Zodiac
4. Sean Penn - Into the Wild
5. ______________

"Here's how it's looking for me...

Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men*
Ridley Scott - American Gangster
Joe Wright - Atonement
P.T. Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and The Butterfly"


- OH MY GOD! I had to make sure I wasn't reading something I wrote. To the poster who did this, I have had this as my Best Director lineup since June! I absolutely 100% agree!!!!

Lonely Director: David Cronenberg - Eastern Promises

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Ridley Scott - American Gangster
Joe Wright - Atonement

Paul Greengrass

1) Joe Wright -- Atonement
2) P.T. Anderson -- There Will Be Blood
3) Joel and Ethan Coen -- No Country for Old Men
4) Sean Penn -- Into the Wild
5) _____________________


I bet Lumus w/ Before the Devil Knows Your Dead takes the spot, and I see Reitman w/ Juno getting snubbed. I kind of think/ hope that Charlie Wilson's War is a big flop. And I hope that American Gangster only gets acting noms.

that's pretty cool that we have the exact same predictions Free, but a big part of me is really rooting for Jason Reitman to get nominated. he was snubbed for his screenplay last year, and i think (and hope) that Juno will have no problem getting 4 major category nominations (Picture, Actress, Director, O. Screenplay) and a couple wins.

I'm kind of routing for Reitman, too. But I also wouldn't mind seeing the Coen Brothers take the win.

I dont think you people listen its LONE DIRECTOR! I doubt all 5 of those films will not get a best picture nod...

Ang Lee-Lust, Caution
Sean Penn-Into the Wild
David Croneberg-Eastern Promises
Ridley Scott-American Gangster
Sidney Lumet-Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Andrew,
my picks are not Picture/Director choices, they're director, with Schnabel as the lone.

Schnabel has the best shot at the lone director spot, im just saying i want Jason Reitman to get is due.

ok, you didnt put that before though...you put all 5 down and didnt specify the lone director i thought you meant all 5 of those had a shot at lone director and i was like uh at leadst one of those films will be nominated for picture..sorry isunderstanding cuz my list is all of lone directors

my theory on American Gangster after seeing it is that if enough films don't make the impact they are expected to make, then it will receive and best picture nomination thus pretty much allowing scott to receive his overdue oscar. the film will NOT under any circumstances win the big one. i thought it was a great directing job. if it becomes highly overshadowed then ridley will have other chances. i can't see it being a lone director nominee. i'd say the best chances belong to...

Sean Penn
Sidney Lumet
David Cronenberg

I'm about 50/50 on if Ridley is lone director or not...personally I think it was a good movie but not great and its too hard of a year for him to be nominated even though I love Ridley's work(see my "Anyone else not impressed by AG" blog) yea I think the films has a 50/50 shot at picture but he is a lock for a nod for director although i dont think he deserves a nod...not this year...i'm hoping maybe with Body of Lies next year...