Do you think constant comparisons with Little Miss Sunshine will end up hurting Juno?

http://www.theoscarigloo.com/2007/articles/junowontbenominated.html

As of now, other contenders look more solid. It will need the PGA nod and the DGA nod as well as the Screenwriter's Guild win to make it happen.

Tom, I agree with most everything you said (I took Juno off my Top 5 a couple days ago) but I wanted to ask you something. First, did you like it? And, more importantly, two, if the film does get the PGA nomination, then do you think it would be possible then?

i definately dont agree, there is always a spot basically reserved for the indie dramedy of the year. Which Juno is shaping up to be. Ellen Page is a shoe-in and the Best Actress race always closely tied with the Best Picture race. just wait, even if Juno loses the GG it still has a fighting chance. the Oscars have proven they are not gonna let the Globes be their "filter" or n e thing. can't say for sure until the announcements actually. but ur right about There Will Be Blood, its one of the biggest contenders of the year. I have my doubts about Sweeney Todd in the Best Pic race though...

Daniel, I did see Juno, and I originally had put a bit about my personal opinion in my article, but then decided to remove. Juno is a thoroughly enjoyable movie, I laughed a whole lot and left happy. For a first screenplay it is a solid effort and the performances are great. But it is a rather shallow film with no strong story arc, and Juno is not the center of the main drama of the film (the troubled marriage) which was distracting. It is not a quarter of the movie that Little Miss Sunshine was; I'd put it about on the same level of Judd Apatow movies Knocked Up and The 40 Year Old Virgin, maybe a little better due to my extreme love of Ellen Page.

To the other commenter: really? There's an indie dramedy nominated every year? What about in 2006? Munich, Brokeback, Crash, Capote, and Good Night and Good Luck. How about 2003? Chicago, The Hours, Gangs of New York, The Two Towers, The Pianist. 2002 the only movie that might qualify would be Gosford Park, and 2001 Chocolat is the only one that comes close to being in that category.
Sideways got nominated because it was a movie that the fogies in the Academy could connect with. Lost in Translation wasn't really a comedy, and was the critical darling that year, a spot taken this year by No Country, not Juno.
The important thing to remember is that Juno is a dark, quirky, modern-day comedy about a teenager. Movies like that don't get nominated for Best Picture. If enough movies drop out of the race, then Juno can step up, and it looks like one contender-The Kite Runner-has already fallen due to less than stellar reviews. Charlie Wilson, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood, and Diving Bell are standing in Juno's way. If Juno gets a lot of guild support, then I will concede defeat in this prediction, but right now I'm not convinced.

"Have you ever transcended space and time?"
"Yes... Well, space, not time... I have no idea what you're talking about."
-I Heart Huckabees

One last thing, sorry about the heavy posting:

Juno looks like it's going to be nominated for Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay? When was the last time a Best Picture nominee only got two other nominations? I'm too busy to look it up, so someone get back to me.

"Have you ever transcended space and time?"
"Yes... Well, space, not time... I have no idea what you're talking about."
-I Heart Huckabees

Tom, not sure if it's the most recent but Four Weddings and a Funeral was nominated for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. Just two.

Houseman you can delude urself as much as u want, but Juno is almost a lock. it seems almost more of a personal thing toward Juno now that u've put so much effort into killing it's online buzz. i can't really complain bcus i kinda got the ball rolling of CWW being an Oscar flop (if u want proof, look at the old forums) and that's working out pretty well for me. i say why not give my love to the only indie comedy that can make it into Best Pic, but if ur gonna serve me up Hanks, Roberts, and Nichols with a side of Hoffman just to win Oscars u can go f*ck urself, Universal. although Hoffman's got my love still. back to Juno, it's chances are there, if the DGA or SAG pick up Jennifer Garner or Jason Reitman and one of them get's nominated, it will have NO PROBLEM getting into the Best Picture category.

If you think Juno won't be nominated for Best Picture, why is it in your prediction list on your blog?
I understand that the blog is managed by more than one person, but it seems confused, if you get what I mean.
But I think you have a point. Juno is the best movie I have seen all year, but I don't think it will be nominated for Best Pic. Little Miss Sunshine got lucky. It was not one of the five best films of 2006, but it was refreshing to see a film that wasn't too heavy in a year when alot of film's subject matter was darker and heavier. This year, it won't happen again, it's too soon. Ellen Page and Diablo Cody are so in, in my opinion.




fataculture.blogspot.com

If that's to me (might not be) then I will say this: If you look at the top of that post...it says something along the lines of "as of 30 seconds ago, I put Juno back in my Top 5". But, if you're referring to the Official Predictions on the side bar, those aren't mine. Those are Brian's.

i really think its still up in the air right now. it does have potential, but it also has threats.

CWW is being pushed more as a comedy and sweeney todd has gained much buzz. then of course, ampas loves surprises. in 2005, everyone and their dog were convinced that walk the line would be nominated for BP as the comedy/musical nominee and low and behold, munich (a film ppl figured would not make the top 5) got it. so, it all comes down to how much ampas will love any of its competition. i am sure its a lock though for actress and screenplay nominations, as seems to be the general consensus.

I do not control the predictions on either the main site or the blog. I know Johnny is in charge of the main site predictions, and he and I often disagree.

I've been thinking more about what will get the fifth Best Picture spot now that Kite Runner has been set back by poor reviews. I have a feeling that Charlie Wilson's War will be popular enough to make it, particularly if it does well at the Box Office. Any thoughts?

"Have you ever transcended space and time?"
"Yes... Well, space, not time... I have no idea what you're talking about."
-I Heart Huckabees