Well the noms are in and it looks like there are 2 major front runners. Who do you think will win? I think that no country should win, having seen all the films. Is it at all possible no country and twbb split votes and atonement or juno sneak in? What are some peoples thoughts?
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I feel like No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood will split votes because of their similar target demographic. I think this leaves Juno as the frontrunner.
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this is definatly a close year all pictures are deserving of being recognized however that being said only one can walk away with the oscar.
michael clayton doesnt have a chance lets be honest its definatly the long shot of the bunch if there is one. atonement is great but not in the same level as the remaining three films. there will be blood has the power and the acting but its sort of like babel, great and powerful but over matched. no country for old men is a perfect movie but it may be to morose and "unenteraining" to win. but of course it is the favorite. with all this being said, i think juno will win. i think it has the acting, the directing, the writing, and the fell of a great movie, many people think the drama vote will be split and juno will slip in for the win, and i thought that for a while, but now that i think about i think juno will win and not by a split vote but just by pure recognition of its deserving self.
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No Country is definately going to win. i know i have heard the "Split Votes" before, but i dont think that will happen. Both There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men have the biggest (critical) fan base so far this year, with No Country always coming out on top. It was won nearly every single precursor, except the GG's, but no one even cares about them anymore. I mean, they nominated the Great Debaters over Into the Wild. WTF?
Personally, the three frontrunners at this point are #1 No Country(by a ways) #2 There Will Be Blood, and #3 Juno. Micheal Clayton is a close fourth, and Atonement was a pity nomination with absolutely no chance at winning. The reason it was nominated was for two reasons. A. it was british and B. it was pretty to look at. But it has no real shot at winning, just like Jones in the best actor race, and anyone in the Best Supportig Actor Race.
I would be happy if any of the (legitimate) nominees won, considering they were all amazing films. With the exception of Michael Clayton, it was just pretty good. Tony Gilroy definately deserved the nod, but not so hot about Clooney.
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direcotr belongs to the coens. they are due and rewarding them for this would reward both borthers and not just one, considering its usually just joel's name on the chair.
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As much as I enjoyed the latest Coen brothers film I just don't think it's this year's best picture. TWBB has so much more to offer and it's much more satisfying. Even Juno is something I think is more satisfying. My ranking would go TWBB, Juno, No Country, Atonement, Michael Clayton. When I left the theater after No Country it just didn't blow me away like TWBB and it didn't keep me laughing as much as Juno. It was certainly a good film and better than lots of other movies this year, it just wasn't the best and the Coens have made better. Michael Clayton seems like it's more a place holder than anything and Atonement is just this year's period film nominee, it's a romantic film that wasn't not going to get nominated. I wish Diving Bell would have been in there just to make things interesting. Overall I think Paul Thomas Anderson, with lots of help from his exceptional cast, created a movie that is practically perfect and completely satisfying. I haven't been a huge fan of his, but this is most definitely a departure from his other films and quite brilliant.
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The Academy always shocks me with its old-fashioned-ness. Don't forget, these are the people who couldn't take Brokeback and gave an Oscar to Crash. If indeed TWBB and NCFOM do split votes, I can see Michael Clayton appealing most to Academy voters. Personally, I think it's a shame that TWBB and NCFOM came out in the same year, because I would love to see them both take home the statue.
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I don't think that votes will be "split" between No Country and There Will Be Blood. That said, I would not be surprised at all if Juno snuck in to take the statue. Atonement does not have a shot, and Michael Clayton was too sharp for it's own damn good. There Will Be Blood is turning in to No Country's little brother: the one that gets nominated, but always falls short. People consider No Country a better version of the same type of movie (which is completely erroneous, as they are completely different). Therefore, I don't give TWBB a shot, especially since its star will be getting a lot of love.
P.S. If 'Once' doesn't win best song I will hurt myself. ; )
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No Country will win and go down as one of the lesser Best Picture winners of all time. Why can't the Academy choose the year's actualy best picture all the time?
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I'll ignore the comment stating No Country is a lesser BP winner. If it wins it would be the best BP winner of the 2000 era. It should win, and I think it will. I'm tired of people talking about this split decision bull. Obviously that hasn't hurt it before when it's gone up against There Will Be Blood. And I was sure we were over the ending. The ending's not stopping it. Nothing could derail NCFOM except itself. It's won so much that people may be tired of it.
I think more than There Will Be Blood, Juno is the big threat. It's not dark, and I feel like the Academy was tempted to give it to Little Miss Sunshine last year. With that same situation back at their doorstep again, they may give in. The fact that audiences love it helps it's case.
But No Country is still very well-liked. I hope it wins. It would be awful if it didn't, except if it lost to There Will Be Blood. Juno winning, a film I loved, THAT would be the worst BP winner in recent memory. But if it happened, I wouldn't be surprised.
Also, Michael Clayton winning BP is a big time pipedream. Or, at this point, anything, except Original Screenplay. Schnabel actually did have the best direction this year in the best film this year, but since Diving Bell got no BP nod, the Coens will take it.
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I don't mean to say that No Country is a bad movie, just that if it won over TWBB it would be reminiscent of Crash winning over another better film. The difference here though is that No Country, unlike Crash, is actually a good movie...just not the best this year. And I don't think I will ever be over that ending. It may work for the book, but it just doesn't in the movie, it was so disappointing.
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all i can say is that i wish TDBatB had gotten a BP nod!!
it DESERVED it much more than either Michael Clayton or Atonement (which i didn't much like).
I think No Country will win. it's one of my favorites this year, and i think it's the best in the race. i don't give TWBB 2nd though. i have to say that i think voters who don't go for a dark film like NCFOM aren't going to go for an even darker movie, they'll go for Juno, which has a slim chane of winning this year.
1. No Country For Old Men
2. Juno
3. There Will Be Blood
4. Michael Clayton
5. Atonement
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