When predicting Oscars, I find it helpful to compare nominees for an acting award in the categories of Person, Picture, Part, and Performance. The relative weights of the categories vary from year to year, but most winners come out ahead in at least 2 of them.

PERSON is everything you can say about the performer that has nothing to do with the specific movie they're nominated for. Primarily previous nominations and awards. Here Kate is in good position, being on her sixth nomination since 1995, with no wins so far. Also she appeared in 2 roles this year that got a lot of nominations and awards. She's clearly red-hot.

BUT -- Meryl is also overdue for an Oscar, even though she already has two. She's the first person to be nominated 15 times, and has lost a record-breaking 12 times, 10 in a row. Even if Oscars were assigned randomly, somebody with 15 nominations should have won 3 times. I think everybody expects her to win another one eventually, but this could be her last real shot -- parts like that don't come along every day for an actress her age.

PICTURE refers to relevant facts about the movie, mostly other nominations it's received. Here again The Reader looks good, with Best Picture and Best Director noms. That's a plus for nominated actors in any category; it moves the probability of winning from 20% to somewhere in the late 20's. Not decisive, but not bad either.

BUT -- Doubt got 4 acting nominations, only the second movie to do so in the last 25 years. That increases the chances of at least one win, and nobody expects Adams, Davis, or Hoffman to win. On the other hand, it didn't get a BP nom -- only the third picture with 4 noms to be snubbed. (Trivia question: what were the other two?) Unfortunately, with such a small sample, there's no real statistical basis for a prediction.

I hear you saying, but wasn't Doubt based on a play? That didn't use to be a disadvantage, many actresses have won for movies based on plays. But it hasn't happened very often recently, mostly because Broadway isn't producing many Oscarable plays. And Doubt was opened up enough to feel like a real movie, not just a filmed play.

PART refers to the type of character portrayed, as well as the size of the part. High-concept characters are always a plus: this year we have we have nun vs. Nazi.

Maybe a dozen actresses have been nominated for portraying nuns, but none of them won except Susan Sarandon. So it's not too encouraging for Meryl. As for actors playing Nazis, I'm not sure I have a complete list. Ralph Fiennes in Schindler's List, Laurence Olivier in Marathon Man, Charles Durning in To Be or Not To Be, Claude Rains in Notorious. Possibly Maximilian Schell in Judgment at Nuremberg and Peter Sellers in Dr. Strangelove. Schell won, but in any event it's a short list.

As to size of part, I think the fact that Winslet ended up in the supporting category for other awards is baffling -- how could anybody say she wasn't a leading actress in that film? The whole movie is about her character, and she has lots of screen time. Certainly her part is bigger than Nicole Kidman's in The Hours. I don't think the length of her part will be a problem for Academy voters.

That leaves PERFORMANCE, the actual quality of the acting on display. Of course we all know the best performance doesn't necessarily win -- that's why we're examining all these other factors. The only generalization I can make here is that is that the voters like to be able to point to something specific in the performance that increases "degree of difficulty" (accents, physical deformities, characters in extremis, etc.).

Streep's performance is on the busy side, very detailed. (Of course you have to use your eyes a lot when you're acting in a nun's habit.) She's almost back to the type of acting that made her reputation in the 80's. The accent is very well done, but it's subtle.

Winslet's performance is more low-key, more integrated. She really captures the essence of the character. This is not necessarily good. On the other hand, she also gets to use an accent, and the bovine stupidity of the character almost qualifies as high-concept.

So it's more a less a draw all the way down the line. I honestly don't know who's going to win. If I were voting, I'd pick Streep, but I'm not, am I?

Thoughts?

Possible answers to your trivia question:

My Man Godfrey (1936). I'm pretty sure that it got one nom in each of the acting categories without a BP nom. (I also think it got nominated for Director and Screenplay - so how do you bypass it for a BP nom? - especially since back then there were ten movies nominated!)

Othello (1965) - No nom for BP. I know Lawrence Olivier, Maggie Smith and Frank Finlay were nomiated for acting awards and I am almost positive that the woman who played Iago's wife (Joyce Redman?) was nominated too. (I could be wrong).

You're right about Othello. I completely forgot about that one! But there's another one too.

Okay I've racked my brain and I can't think of the other one. I could look it up, but that would be cheating, so I give up. Was is it?

I knew Othello was one but I think the other is I Remember Mama. Its the only one that comes to mind besides Guess Who's coming to Dinner, But I am pretty sure that Guess Who's Coming to Dinner recieved a best picture nod. By the way, if you havn't seen I Remember Mama, I reccomend it greatly. Irene Dunne and Barbara Bell Geddes are both fantastic in it!!

Bullets over broadway and....something from the seventies

Good post.4 p's. So true.

Bullets Over Broadway only received three acting nominations.

The answers have already been mentioned: My Man Godfrey (1936), I Remember Mama (1948), and Othello (1965) all received four acting nominations without getting a Best Picture nomination. I cannot think of any others (besides Doubt, of course).

I also think the "4 p's" is a very accurate way of looking at it.

Oops, sorry, kept forgetting to check back. Yes, My Man Godfrey and I Remember Mama were the ones I was thinking of. Don't know how I forgot Othello.

I guess the consensus on this board is that Kate will win, but if there's going to be an upset it will probably be in this category. Even though a lot of critics really hated that movie, but the Academy has always had a soft spot for Holocaust films...