"Venus" is getting excellent reviews from every critic, so I think Peter O'Toole is finally going to win his long overdue Academy Award (44 years after "Lawrence of Arabia"), at the same way of Henry Fonda: same age (74), same nomination (the number 8), and same thing with the Honorary Award.
Bad news for Steven Soderbergh and "The Good German": the first critical reaction is very very cold, so I can predict this film is going nowhere in the Big 8 Awards (and NO nominations at the Golden Satellites).
An NO nominations neither for "Bobby": after the mediocre reviews and the very modest box-office result, I've got a feeling that the best shot for this film will be Bryan Adams in the Best Song category.
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BEST PICTURE
Dreamgirls *
The departed
Babel
The Queen
Flags of our fathers
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The departed *
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood, Flags of our fathers
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Robert Altman, A prairie home companion
BEST ACTOR
Peter O'Toole, Volver *
Forest Whitaker, The last king of Scotland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The departed
Will Smith, The pursuit of happyness
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren, The Queen *
Penélope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a scandal
Meryl Streep, The devil wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little children
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Adam Beach, Flags of our fathers *
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The departed
Brad Pitt, Babel
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls *
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a scandal
Meryl Streep, A prairie home companion
Maggie Gyllenhaal, World Trade Center
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel *
The Queen
Volver
Little Miss Sunshine
Venus
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The departed *
Flags of our fathers
The last king of Scotland
Little children
Notes on a scandal
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I haven't decided on my official Big 8 for the Oscars, but here are my Golden Globe Predictions for the major categories.
Best Picture (Drama)
The Departed
Babel
The Queen
Little Children
United 93
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
A Prairie Home Companion
Stranger than Fiction
Borat
Best Actor (Drama)
Forest Whitaker-The Last King of Scotland
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Departed
Will Smith-The Pursuit of Happyness
Ryan Gosling-Half Nelson
Patrick Wilson-Little Children
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Peter O’Toole-Venus
Aaron Eckhart-Thank You for Smoking
Sacha Baron Cohen-Borat
Will Ferrel-Stranger than Fiction
Johnny Depp-Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
Best Actress (Drama)
Helen Mirren-The Queen
Kate Winslet-Little Children
Judi Dench-Notes on a Scandal
Penelope Cruz-Volver
Maggie Gyllenhaal-Sherrybaby
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Meryl Streep-The Devil Wears Prada
Annette Bening-Running with Scissors
Beyonce Knowles-Dreamgirls
Julie Walters-Driving Lessons
Jodie Whitaker-Venus
Best Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt-Babel
Jack Nicholson-The Departed
Steve Carel-Little Miss Sunshine
Ben Affleck-Hollywoodland
Michael Sheen-The Queen
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett-Notes on a Scandal
Rinko Kikuchi-Babel
Abigail Breslin-Little Miss Sunshine
Lily Tomlin-A Prairie Home Companion
Sharon Stone-Bobby
Best Director
Martin Scorsese-The Departed
Stephen Frears-The Queen
Bill Condon-Dreamgirls
Paul Greengrass-United 93
Alejandro González Iñárritu-Babel
Todd Field-Little Children
Best Screenplay
Babel
Little Children
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
Volver
Dreamgirls
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BEST PICTURE
Dreamgirls *
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Letters from Iwo Jima
BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese, The Departed *
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Robert Altman, A Prairie Home Companion
BEST ACTOR
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland *
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren, The Queen *
Penélope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Sienna Miller, Factory Girl
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Sheen, The Queen
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls *
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Brad Pitt, Babel
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls *
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Shareeka Epps, Half Nelson
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel *
The Queen
Volver
Little Miss Sunshine
Bobby
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Departed *
Letters from Iwo Jima
Dreamgirls
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
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Picture
Two Letters from Iwo Jima
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Babel
The Good Shephard
Director
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Clint Eastwood (Iwo Jima)
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Alejandro G. Inniratu (Babel)
Zhang Yimou (Curse of the Golden Flower)
L. Actor
L.DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)
F.Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)
M. Damon (The Good Shephard)
P. O'Toole (Venus)
W. Smith (Happyness)
L.Actress
J. Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
H. Mirren (The Queen)
N. Watts (The Painted Veil)
K. Winslett (Little Children)
C. Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
S. Actor
J. Nicholson (The Departed)
M. Sheen (The Queen)
A. Beach (Flags of Our Fathers)
B. Affleck (Hollywoodland)
B. Pitt (Babel)
S. Actress
R. Kikuchi (Babel)
C. Maura (Volver)
J. Hudson (Dreamgirls)
M. Gyllenhall (WTC)
C. O'Hara (For your Consideration)
Or. Screenplay
Babel
Volver
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
WTC
Ad. Screenplay
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Iwo Jima
Little Children
Thank you for Smoking
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Wow ... I pretty much agree with Bill on almost everything.
A few disagreements: I think Painted Veil will be a flop, and Volver is going to have a hard time getting anything beyond screenplay and actress. With Clint, I'll guess that the release of Letters might help him with Flags, but I'd be surprised if Letters itself got nominated. Otherwise, I think these predictions are very on-target.
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Thank you. I've seen Flags and the mild / cold reception Flags of Our Fathers has received I think severely lessens it chances at the big categories. Since Iwo Jima got the late push I'm thinking the Academy won't be able to pass up nominating Clint for directing a Japanese language war film.
The Carmen Maura supporting nod is retracted I forgot that I did not include Meryl Streep. Meryl Streep for Supp. Actress.
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