The nominations for the 80th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS will be revealed this Tuesday.
It's been one of the most complicated years of being a fan of the Oscars. Never have I experienced as many as 9 films fighting fiercely for the Best Picture race - American Gangster, Atonement, The Diving Bell And The Butterfly, Into The Wild, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, Sweeney Tood: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, There Will Be Blood - and a film lose as much buzz as Atonement did. Just a month ago (and for the 5 months before that), Atonement was the critics' biggest bet to WIN the Best Picture trophy and get nominations in major categories (director, actor, actress, supporting actress). Now, its chances of even getting nominated have dropped tremendously with the snubs in the Producers Guild Awards, the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Writers Guild Awards. It's sad, really.
Nevertheless, I still think it has a chance at the Oscars. Here are my WANTS and PREDICTIONS for the nominations list when it's revealed on Tuesday.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Addison Wants:
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
Addison Predicts:
Atonement
Into The Wild
Juno
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Addison Comments:
No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are locks at this point, having swept major precursor awards to the Oscars in the last month or so (with the exception of the Golden Globes). Into The Wild and Juno seem safe at this point, although Michael Clayton and The Diving Bell And The Butterfly may cause upsets for them. I still feel Atonement will get a nomination here, simply because it was a beautifully crafted film with a cast and well-delivered technical elements that have been overlooked. PLUS, if Atonement gets a nomination, you KNOW it will be a serious threat to No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, since it beat both films for the Golden Globe. Sweeney Todd, Into The Wild and Juno won't pose any threats as nominees. The Diving Bell And The Butterfly may pose a threat if it wins Best Director, but the biggest one would be posed by Atonement if it gets onto the list. And the buzz for Atonement only died after the ballots for the Oscar nominations were closed. So, many voters could have easily gone with Atonement in this category. I think there's still a high chance for Atonement to get in the list, despite what many critics say, and it would make this competition really spicy.
BEST DIRECTOR
Addison Wants:
Paul Thomas Anderson - "There Will Be Blood"
Tim Burton - "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Joel and Ethan Coen - "No Country for Old Men"
Julian Schnabel - "The Diving Bell And The Butterfly"
Joe Wright - "Atonement"
Addison Predicts:
Paul Thomas Anderson - "There Will Be Blood"
Joel and Ethan Coen - "No Country for Old Men"
Sean Penn - "Into The Wild"
Julian Schnabel - "The Diving Bell And The Butterfly"
Joe Wright - "Atonement"
Addison Comments:
The first 4 in my predictions list received Directors Guild Awards (DGA) nominations and that only locked their already predictable nominations in this list. Wright, unfortunately, didn't receive a nomination from the DGA and neither did Tim Burton. Tony Gilroy received a surprise nomination from the DGA for Michael Clayton. Artistically and Technically, Wright and Burton deserves the Oscar nomination more than Gilroy. I'm going for Wright in my predictions because Atonement was a greater challenge to make considering how deep the novel was and it was also a better crafted film than Sweeney Todd. Also, once again, the buzz for Atonement died only after the voters sent in their nomination ballots. Joe Wright still has a high chance.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Addison Wants:
Johnny Depp - "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Ryan Gosling - "Lars And The Real Girl"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "There Will Be Blood"
James McAvoy - "Atonement"
Denzel Washington - "American Gangster"
Addison Predicts:
George Clooney - "Michael Clayton"
Johnny Depp - "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Ryan Gosling - "Lars And The Real Girl"
Daniel Day-Lewis - "There Will Be Blood"
Viggo Mortensen - "Eastern Promises"
Addison Comments:
The only 2 candidates with locks are Daniel Day-Lewis (who will go on to win!) and George Clooney. Depp, Mortensen, Gosling, McAvoy and Emile Hirsch (Into The Wild) are vying for the other 3 spots. Mortensen will get the nomination since he's scored practically every precursor award nomination he needs to secure himself on the list. But Mortensen's chances of winning are extremely low. This is likely a 2-horse race between Clooney and Day-Lewis. However, if Depp gets into the list, he can be a threat to both of them. It can be argued that since Depp is one of those actors whom we know will receive an Oscar some day (together with Leonardo DiCaprio), this may very well increase Depp's chances of causing an upset for Clooney and Day-Lewis, since the 2 have already won Oscars before. Depp should and will be in this list to spice up the competition. I have a feeling McAvoy will surprise us with a nomination, but Gosling and Hirsch have the precursor nominations to back them up. Between the 2, though, Gosling has a higher chance since Hirsch didn't score a Golden Globe nomination. So, based on precursor choices and the Academy's love for Depp, I'm going for Gosling, Mortsensen and Depp for the remaining 3 spots.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Addison Wants:
Amy Adams - "Enchanted"
Cate Blanchett - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Marion Cotillard - "La Vie En Rose"
Angelina Jolie - "A Mighty Heart"
Keira Knightley - "Atonement"
Addison Predicts:
Cate Blanchett - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie - "Away From Her"
Marion Cotillard - "La Vie En Rose"
Anjelina Jolie - "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page - "Juno"
Addison Comments:
Either Marion Cotillard or Julie Christie will win the trophy. So their nominations are locked. Ellen Page and Anjelina Jolie have been doing extremely well at the precursor awards, receiving SAG and BFCA nods. Plus, they've given some of the best performances of the year. Their nominations are safe (not locked, but very safe). Blanchett will become the 11th actor in the history of the Oscars to receive nominations in both lead and supporting acting cateogories in the same year if she gets the nod here (her supporting nod for I'm Not There is as locked as can be and she will most probably win for that). And I'm thinking the Academy will want to make history in such a special year for Oscar. He's 80! If Elizabeth: The Golden Age had been a better film, Blanchett's nomination here would have been a lock, because her performance was admirable. For now, if she doesn't get it, either Amy Adams (Enchanted), Keira Knightley (Atonement) or Helena Bonham Carter (Sweeney Todd) will be very happy.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Addison Wants:
Casey Affleck - "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem - "No Country for Old Men"
Russell Crowe - "American Gangster"
Paul Dano - "There Will Be Blood"
Tom Wilkinson - "Michael Clayton"
Addison Predicts:
Casey Affleck - "The Asssassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem - "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook - "Into The Wild"
Tom Wilkinson - "Michael Clayton"
Addison Comments:
Javier Bardem has been sweeping supporting actor awards all month! His nomination (and win) is undoubtedly locked. There will be no surprises or snubs for this actor's place in the list. Casey Affleck is his only threat to receiving the trophy. His nomination is also locked. Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood), Tommy Lee-Jones (No Country for Old Men), Hal Holbrook (Into The Wild), Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) are vying for the remaining 3 spots. Wilkinson, Holbrook and Hoffman have been performing consistently well at the precursors. Their nominations seem safe. However, Hoffman didn't receive the SAG nomination and his spot here is threatened by Tommy Lee-Jones. If the Academy is absolutely in love with No Country for Old Men, the film will receive a 2nd nomination in this category with Tommy Lee-Jones, and Hoffman will be snubbed. Paul Dano is my biggest bet for a surprise nomination, and I have a good feeling it will happen. His performance is shockingly good and considering he had to support Daniel Day-Lewis, it must have been a humungous challenge for the young actor. High chances for Dano, I say!
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Addison Wants:
Cate Blanchett - "I'm Not There"
Vanessa Redgrave - "Atonement"
Saoirse Ronan - "Atonement"
Amy Ryan - "Gone Baby Gone"
Julia Roberts - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Addison Predicts:
Cate Blanchett - "I'm Not There"
Catherine Keener - "Into The Wild"
Saoirse Ronan - "Atonement"
Amy Ryan - "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton - "Michael Clayton"
Addison Comments:
Cate Blanchett WILL be nominated and probably win. Her only threat is Amy Ryan, who will also definitely enjoy a nomination. Besides Catherine Keener (Into The Wild), Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) and Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton), other actresses vying for the 3 remaining spots are Ronan's co-star Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement) and Ruby Dee (American Gangster). My WANT for Julia Roberts is impossible here. I just thought it would be extremely entertaining to have a mega star surprise everyone with a nomination. Dee received the SAG award nomination and Redgrave received the BFCA nomination over Ronan, which gives the two a huge boost. But ultimately, it's Ronan, Keener and Swinton who have been constantly doing well at the precursors. Swinton has been on every supporting actress list - Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, etc - so her nomination is pretty much secured. If Keener or Ronan don't get it, expect Dee or Redgrave to be the ones on the list (Redgrave significantly, since she's such a legend and the Academy loves bringing legends back to the party).
Yours in Oscar,
Addison Thomas Wong
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