Academy Award Predictions, The Main Categories. Predicted 5. 1st Predix/

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Knight
Milk
Frost/Nixon

That should be the final five if there is justice in this world. Wall-E misses out because it is an Animated film (respectively) and i dont see AMPAS taking it seriously, but it is the best bet for an upset. Revolutionary Road's Oscar buzz is dying rapidly. 'Milk' should get the nom, as it has won three or four critics awards and has been recognised by the SAG. But it is a gay movie (respectively) and not all voters are down with that. The Dark Knight is doing well in precursors, winning the AAFCA, Austin and Utah Best Pictures, the SAG snub was a joke, but 'Best Ensemble' is not a Best Picture prize. Plus Heath Ledger's performance is enough to get its nod, is is also the 'Movie of the Year', it is also out of DVD to generated some more buzz and its re-release in JAN, could be critical PLUS INSANE reviews. Slumdog & Curious Case are near enough locks, with nods from Globes and SAG and its only a matter of time that it gets the BAFTA nominations. Nixon is in as the Globe, BFCA and SAG have recognised it.
Alternatives: Wall-E & Revolutionary Road for Frost/Nixon and Milk.

Best Director
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon

The DGA awards are critical for this category. Chris Nolan, David Fincher and Boyle are in for me. Nolan, directing movie of the year and winning the Austin critic award , Fincher directing Curious Case & NBR doesnt hurt, Boyle taking the lions share of critics award plus a 'crowd pleaser' on his hands. The Academy like Ron Howard for some reason and besides Frost/Nixon is meant to be a good movie. Globe nom helps. Could Gus Van Sant end up being the next Ang Lee?... probably not, but hes in as long as he gets the DGA nod. Plus San Francisco and Boston critics awards help.
Alternative: Darren Aronofsky & Same Mendes for Gus Van Sant & Ron Howard


Best Actor
Sean Penn - Milk - 'Harvey Milk'
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler - 'The Ram'
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor - 'Proffesor Vale'
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon - 'Richard Nixon'
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Looking at precursor award wins its easy to put these guys in the top five. But Clint Eastwood & Leo DiCaprio are by far more loved by AMPAS than any of those actors, and that fact could come into play. Sean Penn & Mickey Rourke are locks. People say that Rourke has made enemies in Hollywood, but the SAG, GLOBE nods and his comeback story is enough for the Academy to finally nominate him. Sean Penn is said to be great in Milk, and has been the critical darling thus far, plus he is a biopic character, a genre that AMPAS loves. As for Brad Pitt, the SAG nom may have put him on course to seize that 4th/5th spot. Frank Langella's performance has allready got him a Tony Award and allready has momentum for a movie he starred in last year, called Starting Out in the Evening, in which he has been praised for. Jenkins' SAG nom is critical, but could easily be replaced by Eastwood. His place is not guaranteed.
Alternatives: Clint Eastwood & Leo DiCaprio for Brad Pitt & Richard Jenkins.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight - 'The Joker'
Phillip S. Hoffman - Doubt - 'Father Flynn'
Josh Brolin - Milk - 'Dan White'
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder - 'Kirk Lazarus'
James Franco - Milk - 'Scott Smith'

Heath Ledger is the only sure thing in this category. His performance was phenomenal, and the nomination is secure as he has almost sweeped the critics awards, plus SAG nom is critical. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is behind Ledger in that 2nd spot, he is considered to be a default nominee but he hasnt got any critics awards,hes won recently and the nomination may be considered reward enough. Josh Brolin has the NBR and the NYFCC under his belt. The Golden Globes snub hurts but he made up for it with the SAG. He is a good contender, and Milk has Best Picture buzz which helps. But there could be a vote split, and very rarely does one movie get three/four acting noms, if he is to miss out, it will be because of Dev Patel. (who could use Slumdog buzz and enthusiasm to jump on board) Franco was recognised at the Globes for Pineapple Express but at least he was recognised. I think it is a minor boost. Downey Jr's comeback story helps, he also has Iron Man. I think this nomination will be a 'Thank you for your acting career' nomination. His role isnt so Oscar-Like.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz
Viola Davis
Amy Adams
Maris Tomei
Kate Winslet


Best Cinematography
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
The Reader

Best Original Score
The Dark Knight - Hans Zimmer & James Newton Howard
Indiana Jones - John Williams
Wall-E - Thomas Newman
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Alexandre Desplat
Slumdog Millionaire - A.H Rahman

Best Original Screenplay
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Rachel Getting Married
Milk
Wall-E
The Visitor

Best Adapted Screenplay
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Slumdog Millionaire