Even though the PGA and SAG are yet to show their flags, I think I have a clear idea of who will take home what this year. I could be completely wrong, but here's what I'm thinking:
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Runner-Up: Benjamin Button
I wont be putting runner-ups for every category, but right here I think it is extremely close. Yeah, Slumdog has won everything so far, but Benjamin Button is big, connected, and almost as good, IMO. Also, since Dark Knight was shut out, I think that a bunch of its voters will go to Benjamin Button, the only other blockbuster on the list.
Best Director: David Fincher
Even if Slumdog wins it all, Fincher will still get a statue. He's a great veteran director who has made good films and his film has 13 nods. It takes a great director to put all that stuff together into one picture.
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Two weeks ago I would have said Sean Penn, but the Golden Globes changed my mind. No, they aren't good predictors of winners, but Golden Globe awards are given by foreigners and I always assumed that Rourke's fans were from the States. With international support, he will probably go all the way. Plus, Penn has won before.
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Being snubbed for Revolutionary Road was that best thing that could have happened to her. No vote split, great performance, long overdue. It looks like it's hers to lose.
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Because they will riot in the streets if he doesn't win.
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
If Winslet was helped by her Rev. Road snub, cruz definitely was. Her main competition is gone; it looks like her vs. Viola Davis and Cruz is a veteran and was onscreen a lot longer.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
It will definitely win this one, out of five excellent nominees. Very strong category this year.
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
I think that Penn will lose, but Milk will still get on the board. This is where it happens. A much more lightweight category than Adapted.
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
The costumes were awesome.
Visual Effects: Benjamin Button
Cinematography: Benjamin Button
Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing: Dark Knight
Sound: Dark Knight
Art-Direction: Benjamin Button
Makeup: Benjamin Button
Original Song: Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire
Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Animated: Wall-E
Foreign Film: Waltz with Bashir
Totals: Benjamin Button- 5, Slumdog- 5, Dark Knight- 2
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