Best Supporting Actress - From "Most Likely To Win" to "Not Gonna Happen"
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia **WINNER**
Mo'nique - Precious **RUNNER-UP**
Rachel Weisz - The Lovely Bones
Marion Cotillard - Public Enemies **DARK HORSE**
Emily Mortimer - Shutter Island
Imelda Staunton - Taking Woodstock
Kathy Bates - Cheri
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
Julie Christie - 1939
Nicole Kidman - Nine
Paula Patton - Precious
Charlize Theron - The Road
Best Lead Actress - From "Most Likely To Win" to "Not Gonna Happen"
Michelle Pfeiffer - Cheri **WINNER**
Saorise Ronan - The Lovely Bones **RUNNER-UP**
Hilary Swank - Amelia
Gabby Sidibe - Precious **DARK HORSE**
Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces
Helen Mirren - The Tempest
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Maya Rudolph - Away We Go
Romola Garai - 1939
Robin Wright Penn - The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
Amy Adams - Julie & Julia
Rachel Weisz - Agora
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I agree, no way in hell Marion Cotillard will be double nominated. Not even sure she will be nominated at all. Her best chance is with Public Enemies, because her role in Nine is really nothing that spectacular (at least onstage). She's DEFINITELY not lead in that. In my opinion. I"ll be shocked if they campaign her there. The Nine ladies in contention will be Penelope Cruz (she has a great role) and Dame Judi (because she's Dame Judi). Curious about Kate Hudson though, since her character was written specifically for the screen.
For Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
--God, she has a killer song. A really sexy performance. And very funny.
Judi Dench, Nine
--She'll likely kill in the role. And she's DAME JUDI.
Leslie Mann, Funny People
--Because I love her and am hoping she's great in it.
Mo'Nique, Precious
--This is a no-brainer.
Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
--I'm kind of putting her here for the hell of it. It' s a grieving mother part, and those usually work well for Oscars. And it's entirely different from the role she won her Oscar for.
Alternates
Amy Adams, Julie & Julia
--My guess is they'll put Meryl in lead, and Amy in supporting (even though they're co-leads). This could bode well for a nomination for Amy.
Emily Mortimer/Michelle Williams, Shutter Island
--I just don't know about this movie. Is it Oscar? Who has the baitiest part? I need to read the book.
Kathy Bates, Cheri
--She hasn't gotten enough credit for this movie. She was FREAKIN' hilarious! I hope she's remembered by the end of the year. If Michelle gets some attention, I'm hoping Kathy does too. She's very respected among her peers, so it's possible.
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BEST ACTRESS:
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star
--Campion works wonders for actresses. Cornish has received overwhelming positive reviews for her performance.
Charlotte Gainsburg, Antichrist >
--Has already won a major film award. Despite the controversy of the film, no one has been able to deny that she gives a hell of a performance. It's late October release and probable oscar campaign should work in getting Gainsburg a nomination (if not Van Tier as well).
Helen Mirren, Love Ranch
--Mirren has several films out this year and I have a feeling that her turn as a fiesty madam will catch the attention of the academy. Her previous win and two other nominations proves that they love her, but what I think will really get them is the fact that she is playing agaisnt type (her win and nominations came from very serious and dramatic performances).
Hilary Swank, Amelia
--The trailer makes it seem like an average performance, but the academy loves biops and Swank. She'll get a nomination, but not the win.
Audrey Tatou, Coco avant Chanel >
--A little known actress in the mainstream culture, but the academy certainly loved her in 2001's Amelie. Though it is rare that a foreign film produces an oscar winner, I think that her performance as the legendary fashion icon is the likely winner as of now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz, Nine
--Carla is a sultry, sexy character that the academy will eat up. Her win this year will probably work agaisnt her, but she should at least receive a nomination.
Judi Dench, Nine >
--Liliane is a charater that is always a crowd pleaser. Plus, the academy worships dame judi (who wouldn't). It's been about 10 years since her last win...she's due for another.
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
--Mirren's performance as the long suffering wife of the famed Russian writer should be screen stealing. As long as it gets a US distributor, the film should result in oscar gold.
Mo'Nique, Precious >
--Early word is that she gives the performance of a lifetime. The trailer and clips have confirmed this for me. Promotion from Winfrey's Harpo Productions and Perry's 34th Street Films should build major support for the film.
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
--This fifth slot has been a toss up for me. For now, my money is on Sarandon who plays a loving grandmother. The academy certianly loves her and her long standing status in Hollywood should help her.
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Lead Actress
Audrey Tatou -- Coco avant Chanel -- foreign actors & films have been getting more attention the last few years, this year's Oscars will be no different
Hilary Swank -- Amelia -- looks a little to "lifetime" of a movie
Gabby Sidibe -- Precious -- young actresses have become a staple
Helen Mirren -- Love Ranch -- Mirren as a whore house owner has golden written all over it
Carrie Mulligan -- An Education -- a good coming of age story/will have to battle for her spot with Cornish, because their roles look too similar
ALTERNATES
Abbie Cornish -- Bright Star -- probably get a BAFTA nomination, has to be better than Mulligan
Romola Garai -- Glorious 39 -- probably get a BAFTA nomination, has to be better than Mulligan
Meryl Streep -- It's Complicated -- Diane Keaton is a good actress, but Streep with a Meyers production will be better
Charlotte Gainsbourg -- Antichrist -- she looks so hauntingly good, maybe too dark of a subject matter
Penelope Cruz -- Broken Embraces -- has to be better than Tatou
Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique -- Precious -- the Acedemy loves raw performances
Meryl Streep -- Julie & Julia -- the Acedemy also loves real-life stories
Judi Dench -- Nine -- good character actress
Saorise Ronan -- The Lovely Bones -- could be couched from Lead because of her age, but still has a shot
Susan Sarandon -- The Lovely Bones -- has gone overlooked for awhile, might all change
ALTERNATES
Jennifer Connelly -- Creation -- plays a similar role that she won her previous Oscar for/ thinking if she gets a nod it'll be supporting
Penelope Cruz -- Nine -- just won last year, but still has a chance with her sultry performance
Helen Mirren -- The Last Station -- perhaps to many chances in one season
Leslie Mann -- Funny People -- seems touching, but can she sway the Acedemy to enjoy comedy?
Marion Cotillard -- Public Enemies -- the light of the movie
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