This week is brutal,but I managed to come up with four plays.Actual prices to follow on Friday night.
TAMPA BAY -1
Green Bay secondary is in bad shape with injuries.Gruden will figure out how to attack that defense whether it's the air game or on the ground.Expecting Kiffin to mess with Aaron Rodgers head a little bit.High 80's temp will help the home team Bucs in the second half.Expecting the Bucs to play with plenty of emotion in support of their kicker Matt Bryant while Pack could be sluggish off that physical game with Dallas.
HOUSTON +7
Have to go against the Jags off the win against their most hated rival.Three times they've knocked off the Colts under Del Rio and all three times came up lame the week after.Texans haven't had it easy the last couple of weeks with Ike.They were really sloppy last week in Tenn,but with things getting back to normal and a full week of practice I'm expecting a sharp focused effort.Possible upset and you're getting at least a TD.
SAN FRAN +5
Short line,but New Orleans is very banged up on offense.Now that San Fran is capable of throwing it,the run game becomes even more efficient with Gore.I'll always take an underdog with the better defense and running game.
DALLAS -11
Thinking the Cowboys will get their ground game going while Washington won't.Dallas has been wearing teams down in the second half when their lines take control.Not sure if Zorn and company are ready to take it out on the road.They caught a couple of soft teams at home in New Orleans and Arizona.Cowboys are probably still pissed about that meaningless 21-0 loss last December in the pouring rain.Redskins were chirping after about how they wanted Dallas in the playoffs.Thinking the Cowboys will rub it in here if they can.
Looking at the Titans this week. The line looks suspiciously low, but I have to stick with them at home. Also like the Cards. I heard they stayed on the East coast instead of flying back and forth, which is a big plus. Jets off the short week and Favre is hurting. Too many offensive weapons. Cards win.
Steve
Gonna pump up my Houston bet for extra and get some moneyline.Something about that game has me really geeked up-not sure what it is-maybe Jags are tremendously over rated.
Went from hating this week to loving it in about 30 min his am. not sure why but a bunch started standing out.
NO/SF: o48.5 Id go over 52 here. Havent seen anything that would make me believe either team can stop or be stopped by the other. Also playing NO -3 and o24 1st half.
SD -7.5: Chargers own the Raiders. And though i really think oakland doesnt totally suck this is a bad matchup for them.
Car -7: I dont believe Ryan and Atlanta can do it on the road against a decent team.
Den/KC u47: IF KC scores it's by eating up the clock on the ground. Den hasnt put up more than 27 @ Arrowhead since 02.
Buf/StL o21.5 1st half: Expecting Edwards to air it out against a bad Rams secondary. Not sure Green gives STL a spark as such, but his knowledge of the offense will help get Holt involved a little more and should open things up a bit for S Jax.
Tenn -3: Gonna keep playing the Titans til I stop cashing.
Hou +7: Hou 9-3 all time ats vs the Jags. Watched last weeks Ten/Hou game last night and think Kubiak really cost them. Down 12 late in 3rd and went for it on 4th and goal from the 4. Still down 12 with 8 min left in game went for it on 4th from the 20. Kick a couple FGs and theyre within 6 and get the ball back 3x before the game ends without having to force the issue. Score was decptively lopsided. I think Jax run game last week couldve been part mirage against a brutally bad colts run D. Not as easy against a decent Hou front 7.
Playing a 3x parlay with SFo/Car/SD, 4x adding Hou, and 6x adding Den u/Tenn.
Not sure Im sold on the Phillps 3-4 vs West Coast teams, so id stay away from giving double digits. Think about the under on the skins in the 2nd half. Wade is 3 for 3, but the skins went 2nd half o both games v dal last year...
thats what i was worried about. those bigger 3-4 LBs tend to have problems against a well executed west coast offense thats stretches the field horizontally. Still, Boys played ok in the 2nd half (another u for the opps) and it took Newmans worst game as a pro and some horrible play from romo. Not too concerned long term. They were never winning more than 11 or 12 anyway...
What does piss me off is that damn NO game. I semi-lucked into both 1st half bets with a late score, but the 2 teams combined to have 3 consecutive drives in the 3rd/4th which ended with turnovers inside the 5 (SF 2x). And I lose by a half. Turned a 7-2 day into 6-4 and cost me 2 parlays that wouldve made it efftively 12-2.
Ive said it before, but if anyone likes betting football, you MUST get the package on Directv. The Shortcuts shows (every game paired down to action only in 30 min) lets you actually see every game you could want to over the course of the week. An absolute must for a degenerate gambler who likes to cash the occasional ticket. I wouldnt have played Hou had I not seen that Tenn/Hou game last night. The whole package has nearly paid for itself already this year in games like that one.
I like Philly in a low scoring game tonight. Playing a bunch of gimmicks, including Phil -3, Chicago pts -18.5, total pts u32.5 +200, total fgs o3.5, etc, etc....expecting a bunch of fgs and a philly win at say 20-10.
Leaning towards Balt tomorrow. Wish it was at Pitts where i could get a juicy ML.
Seems like Dallas gave up on running the ball way too early.How does Marion Barber only carry it 8 times? The strength of their offensive line is run blocking and wearing down teams in the second half-not pass protection.Romo covers up for a lot of their problems with his mobility.Curious game plan/playcalling from Garrett.
Houston has another game they can cover next week vs Indy.Colts aren't going to be the Colts until late October-maybe early November.Think they are still very vulnerable in the short term.
Fortunate late cover if you had San Diego.
This message has been edited by big18741 on Sep 28, 2008 10:34 PM
Your fearless Pgh area correspondent chiming in: Willie Parker out tonight means that rookie Mendehall gets the start. Could be a key as Mendenhall had difficulty holding onto the ball in preseason. I'm sure Ray Lewis and gang will try their best to get him to cough it up a time or two. Roethlisberger still probably suffering a bit. Baltimore likely to keep it on the ground to insulate Flacco from the Steelers D. I'm seeing a low scoring game here, although the o/u is a low number, and think turnovers decide the side.
Now it looks like they have a chance to be 6-2 or maybe even 7-1(tall order beating Phila off a loss this week) at the midway point.
Gibbs was a figurehead coach who turned very conservative in his second go around.Al Saunders offense was way too complicated and the players were turned off to it.Gregg William is an over rated(Jags are turning sievelike) windbag of a defensive coordinater who was very divisive in the locker room.
With Gibbs,Saunders and Williams all gone this team is playing very loose and relaxed.Maybe not the most talented team in the division,but they probably have the best team chemistry which goes a long way.Zorn might do some goofy things with clock management and in game decisions,but overall he's done a great job partcularly with Jason Campbell.
That division and wildcard is wide open-any two of the four teams has a chance to not even make the playoffs this year.Wouldn't shock me if the Giants and or Dallas are both on the sidelines in January while Phila and Wash both make the postseason.
This message has been edited by big18741 on Sep 29, 2008 11:06 AM This message has been edited by big18741 on Sep 29, 2008 10:31 AM
I did make a small bet on Chicago +3 last night just for kicks and got down on Baltimore +5.I can either sit with the Ravens or if Big Ben is out come back with a middle before kickoff.That line would probably drop below a FG if he doesn't play.Not counting either as a play on here-didn't post on Chicago and the Ravens/Steelers I'm trying to get cute with and finesse a middle.I do actually lean to Baltimore even if Ben plays.
Missed the boat on two games yesterday-Kansas City and Cleveland playing losers San Fran and Dallas instead.
Denver had scored 30+ in three straight games(always a team to go against giving points) and was favored on the road in a divisional game.Kansas City was a great % bet if you could stomach them.
When 0-3 teams play each other the dog(Cleveland)covers at something like an 80% rate.
Tough pulling the trigger on bad teams even when they're the absolute right play.STUPID ----ING ----AZZ
One of my on-line servicers offered a risk-free bet on a point spread play. I went in and picked Cle +3.5. Guess that line was before the Carson Palmer scratch. Also had a 2-bet o/u parlay of under in Hou-Jax game and over in the Raiders/SD game. Split those. Didn't think much of Hou on the road and thought Jax would play stouter D.
6-4 day puts me at 17-12 for the season. Unusualy high number of games this far in for me, but at least Im comfortable with knowing what teams not to get involved with (AZ, Wash, NO) and what teams I do have pegged pretty well (Dal, Tenn, Hou). Hopefully I can show some disipline in betting teams I can figure.
I like Balt accross the board tonight. +.5 1st Q/+3 1st H/ +6. Added a ML/over parlay +210/o34.5 and teased the over to 41.5 for +200.
You could be right GAM. Up and comers often do a Jekyl and Hyde thing home and away. Im interested in seeing how Atl handles a decent team at home; they may be the same.
Dont know what its worth, but the last time I recall a team staying on a coast was the 05 Cowboys who played @SF and @Oak back to back. They squeaked out a win in the first leg then lost as a small favorite to Oakland.
Something to remember next time a team does this?
Arizona should bring a strong effort at home after giving up an embarrasing 56 points to the Jets.Cards in general have always been a better home than road team even when they sucked.
Buffalo sleepwalked to a win against the lame Rams.Another road effort like that and the Cards will beat them.Bills in back to back road games and have a bye week next.
Arizona on my shortlist of plays for this week.Seems like a good setup for them even if the Bills are the better team.
