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OK, well we've discussed the "Money" & "Economy" part of the earlier...

November 14 2008 at 7:14 PM
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Don  (Login dcrotty1)

 
post on the current bad times, but I didn't see any of the "Watch" part of the equation.

So - What do YOU think will happen to the various sectors of the watch market because of the bursting bubble??

My guess:
1. I consider there are 2 basic, distinct markets: consumer watches and hard-core Collectible Watches [at least for this discussion].

2. For consumer market - I expect a decline in volume & selling price in both the new & used segments of that market. Fewer people at all levels being able to afford what they customarily buy [@ the price range they customarily do]. So, a shift "downscale" + a certain amount of forgoing of purchases.

3. For the serious "Collectible" or "Hard Asset" market I expect 2 opposing forces to be at work:
- desire to acquire "safe" hard-assets during times of economic turmoil

vs.

- lack of liquidity a) forcing sales of existing holdings and b) restricting purchase of new ones

So, maybe a see-saw effect where increased demand for "hard assets" like the high-quality rarer watches is counterbalanced by lower purchasing power of the "hard asset" fans (even including new converts to that way of thinking) & traditional collectors.

I will say that in the last 1-2 months I've seen a lot of watch FS postings [and subsequent price reductions] I think would NOT have been offered during better economic times & that increase in supply [without a corresponding increase in demand] usually will portend a price drop. According to some sources I've seen, "high end" collectible watches have gone through DRAMATIC value swings - both up AND down - in the past [20-30 years]. I understand there have been times when some of these hi-end collectibles [truly rare (like, only 10 made) Rolex, Patek, Breguet, etc. in auctions by Sotheby's, etc.] have lost half or more of their value in a period of several years & then eventually recovered their value [and sometimes more] in the next up-leg. I certainly believe it could happen again. I also think that same pricing behaviour can occur in the "mid/lower" tiers of the collectible watch arena as well where most or all of us are.

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Seiko Matsuda
The Patron Saint of Seiko Collectors

 
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