"But Reni has definitely NOT worn the bucket/Reni hat on stage with the band as of yet."
Here's an idea for you, if you were Reni and you were - as you say he is - in the business of making cryptic statements that have deep, hidden meanings, and one of the cryptic statements was specifically about wearing a Reni Hat , do yo not think that you might not wear a Reni Hat on a stage before whenever it is that you were implying you would wear it?
It'd be fucking idiotic, wouldn't it?
Which is among the reasons why I don't subscribe to this particular theory, either.
The webpage with the Stone Roses' lemon on it is odd, but I doubt it's going to happen now. There's no need - playing to hundreds of thousands of people at Heaton Park and then playing to a few thousand more - outside - for a festival that was known as being easily the worst in Britain at the time it was on? With no notice? I just don't see it happening, personally.
Play poker, make films, do something tangible - this is just wishy washy cackola, mate.