Exclusive: Mired in Mogadishu
Author: J. Peter Pham, Ph.D.
Source: The Family Security Foundation, Inc.
Date: July 26, 2007.
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/
The Somalia “National Reconciliation Congress” has such an encouraging ring to it. That is what we might conclude from an official State Department reference several weeks ago, but FSM Contributing Editor J. Peter Pham, Ph.D., knows the true story, which he shares with you here.
Mired in Mogadishu
By J. Peter Pham
Two weeks ago a “national reconciliation congress” that Somalia’s ineffectual “Transitional Federal Government” (TFG), under pressure from international donors who are its only means of support, convened in a bullet-riddled Mogadishu garage finally got underway—and promptly adjourned after mortar fell nearby. Despite this inauspicious start, four days later at the State Department in Washington, Deputy Spokesman Tom Casey tried to put the best spin the deteriorating situation by choosing to not acknowledge the ignominious dispersal of gathering:
The United States welcomes the opening of the Somalia National Reconciliation Congress in Mogadishu on Sunday, July 15, and looks forward to continued deliberations over the coming weeks. We are encouraged by the remarks from President Abdullahi Yusuf stating that the Congress will address key political issues, such as power sharing and transitional tasks mandated by the Transitional Federal Charter, and that the Transitional Federal Government will implement the outcomes of the Congress. We urge all Somali stakeholders to participate constructively in the Congress and use this opportunity to establish a roadmap for the remainder of the transitional process leading to elections in 2009.
There is little likelihood of any of these benchmarks, much less all of them, being met. For one thing, the TFG is, at best, a notional entity whose day-to-day physical survival is due to the continuing presence of the Ethiopian intervention force which rescued it last December from certain collapse in the face of an assault by the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) which at the time controlled Mogadishu and majority of the territory of the former Somali Democratic Republic and were threatening to overrun the provincial outback of Baidoa, the only Somali town where the interim “government” even had the pretense of running. For another, even if the TFG were able to hold elections, it would have little incentive to do so given that the only certain result is that a poll would result in “President” Abdullahi Yusuf, a Majeerteen sub clansman of the Darod clan from northeastern Puntland, being repudiated by Hawiye clan, which predominates in the country’s sometime capital of Mogadishu.
In fact, the “national” conference—the first for the TFG since it was set up in late 2004 as the fourteenth attempt at an interim government—has been repeatedly postponed (three times since April alone) and only got underway this time because the European Union’s special envoy for Somalia, Georges-Marc Andrea, together with Mario Raffaelli, the special envoy from the former colonial ruler, Italy, went in person to Mogadishu the week before to ensure that it did. Most of the delegates who showed up openly admitted that they did so because the international community was paying an extravagant cash per diem allowance equal to month’s wages (originally over 3,000 clan elders and other notables were invited, but the number had to be pared down to just over 1,300 because funding shortfalls meant that there was only enough money to assure that many six weeks’ worth of the dole). Excluded from this largesse were leaders of rival clans as well as Islamists, moderate and otherwise (the TFG did make a show of extending a late invitation to the foreign secretary of the ICU, Ibrahim Hassan Adow, now living in exile in Qatar, but he could hardly have been expected to travel to Mogadishu while the same Ethiopian troops who drove him and his allies out six months ago are still present).
In any event, the formal agenda for the “reconciliation congress” was limited to mainly clan issues with no real political questions on the table. The TFG “president” was not about to allow a discussion of his position to occur, much less in a city dominated by his clan rivals (the Hawiye ran most other Darod out of town in the early 1990s after the collapse of last real government, the Siyad Barre dictatorship). Nor was the position of its prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, open to be filled since the incumbent enjoys close ties with the TFG’s chief supporter, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who employed Gedi’s father as a glorified valet in the 1980s. Likewise precluded was any real debate about allocations of the TFG’s only source of revenue other than international mendicancy, fees collected at the port of Mogadishu. The latter, however, have been treated as little more than a privy purse by the president and prime minister, both of whom are proud owners of new villas in the capital of neighboring Kenya.
In this context, it is not particularly surprising that the TFG, its Ethiopian defenders, and the pathetically undermanned African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) find themselves facing a growing armed resistance which, as I predicted in a column nearly five months ago, is “repeating almost step-by-step the tactical and strategic evolution of the Iraqi insurgency.” Spearheading the insurgency is al-Shabaab (“the Youth”), an extremist group which I reported last year emerged within the ICU’s armed forces and is led by a kinsman and protégé of ICU council leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir ‘Aweys, Adan Hashi ‘Ayro, who trained in Afghanistan with al-Qaeda before returning to Somalia after 9/11. Recent intelligence indicates that Shabaab efforts have been coordinated by Fazul Abdullah Muhammad, the reputed leader of al-Qaeda in East Africa who is on the FBI’s “Most Wanted Terrorists” list with a $5 million bounty on his head for his role in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi, Kenya. Fazul, who is said to have been the target of the guided-missile destroyer USS Chafee’s shelling of a stretch of the Somali coast last month, is reportedly working directly as intelligence chief for the Shabaab campaign.
Things had gotten so bad by early July that Mogadishu’s famed open-air Bakara Market was shut down for the first time in living memory (the sprawling bazaar was open for business even through the madness of the battle captured in Black Hawk Down) as insurgents and TFG supporters, backed by Ethiopian soldiers, have turned the commercial center into daily battlefield—just on Sunday, at least one person was killed and several more wounded in clashes there. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), at least 10,000 people fled the sometime capital city last week alone, bringing the net emigration figure to an estimated 275,000 since the beginning of the year. In addition, last week UNHCR had to reopen the closed refugee camp at Teneri Ber in eastern Ethiopia for another 4,000 refugees from southern Somalia. While African leaders went through the motions of renewing AMISOM’s mandate for another six months, given the rapid spiral of violence from drive-by shootings to artillery and rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) fire to improvised explosive devices (IED) to suicide bombings, it is understandable why no one is eager to join the 1,600 Ugandan peacekeepers who have been keeping a low profile since they deployed several months ago (see my April 12 column, “Peacekeepers with No Peace to Keep”).
To make matters worse, the TFG’s ham-fisted ways have not only driven potential Somali constituents into the arms of the insurgents, who are increasingly embracing a broad spectrum ranging from radical Islamists with foreign ties to irate members of sidelined clans, but have also succeeded in alienating international nongovernmental organizations. As the Voice of America’s Alisha Ryu reported earlier this month, TFG officials have been harassing and intimidating humanitarian organizations that refuse to work under its control, including SAACID, a women’s NGO involved in the largest demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration program in central southern Somalia, whose country director and her husband were briefly arrested on charges of being “Hawiye terrorists”. Meanwhile, as Jeffrey Gettleman of The New York Times wrote poignantly last week, “piracy off of Somalia’s 1,880-mile coastline is a serious issue again, threatening to cut off crucial food deliveries to a population that is often just a few handfuls of grain away from famine.”
There is only one way to escape the downward spiral and that is by summoning the clarity of vision and mustering the political courage to squarely confront the facts on the ground and come to the following realizations which I outlined in this space four months ago and which bear repeating:
- The recent escalation in violence cannot be interpreted other than as the wholesale rejection by Somali clans of the TFG as well as any foreign forces which are viewed as shoring up the that pretender government. The danger is that, since Somalia’s homegrown Islamists were defeated but not eliminated as I called for in January while the Ethiopian campaign was in progress, the clansmen will align themselves with the ICU/PRM much like the Pashtun tribes backed and, in many cases, continue to back the Taliban in Afghanistan. Stop wasting time, money, political capital, and, now, lives on the TFG.
- There is no hope of outsiders being able to reconstitute a unitary Somali state. Somalilanders—roughly half of whom have been born after the northwestern republic reclaimed its sovereignty upon the collapse of the Somali Democratic Republic in 1991 and have never even known themselves as Somalis—will never agree to turn back the clock and reenter into a union with the rest of the country. The inhabitants of the semi-autonomous northeastern region of Puntland, which, while not as politically advanced as the Republic of Somaliland, is nonetheless making significant progress on its own, are likewise unlikely to want to chain themselves to the anarchic rest of the former state. As for the other Somali regions, their clans show little inclination to surrender their traditional freedoms, reasserted in the decade and a half since the collapse of the Siyad Barre dictatorship, to a new central regime. Consequently, short of employing overwhelming brutal force—and, even then, the odds of success are not good—there is little likelihood that Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again.
- Given that the international community is both unlikely to use force to compel unity and unwilling to support extensive nation-building efforts, its primary strategic objective must therefore be to prevent both outside actors from exploiting the vacuum left by the de facto extinction of the entity formerly known as Somalia and those inside the onetime state from spreading their insecurity throughout a geopolitically sensitive region. On a secondary level the international community might also be interested in facilitating progress inside the failed state; however the outsiders’ chief interests will be allocating their scarce resources where they can achieve some effect.
The last point about security and scarce resources is particularly important since it was only last month that a “dangerous terror suspect” by the name of Abdullahi Sudi Arale had been transferred to the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. This detainee who served as a courier between the al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan and their affiliates in the Horn of Africa, was captured in Somalia where, since he returned from South Asia last September, he has been part of the leadership of the Islamic Courts Union which he assisted by acquiring weapons and explosives and providing false documents for foreign extremists traveling to join their fight.
When I put forward my proposal earlier this year, I acknowledged its limits:
"A policy like the one I have outlined may strike many as minimalist, to date the international community has shown little inclination to do much more than proffer empty words. Furthermore, my approach buys Somalis themselves the space within which to make their own determinations about their future while at the same time allowing the rest of the world, especially the countries of the Horn of Africa, to realize most of security objectives. In short, this strategy has offers the most realistic hope of salvaging a modicum of regional stability and international security out of an increasingly intractable situation."
If last week’s botched congress is any indication, the only thing that has changed is that we have wasted several more months and several more million dollars even as the insurgents gathered strength from the accumulating grievances of those marginalized by the TFG. If a foreign-funded kaffeeklatsch by the handpicked (and paid) invitees of a “government” with no grass-roots support is the most creative solution the international community’s Africa policymakers can come up with, it is going to be a very long, very hot, and very violent summer in Mogadishu.
FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor J. Peter Pham, PhD., is Director of the Nelson Institute for International and Public Affairs at James Madison University, and an academic fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He has written for a variety of publications, and has testified before the U.S. Congress and conducted briefings or consulted for both Congressional and Executive agencies.
Somalia – Complex Emergency
USIAD, July 20, 2007
In late December 2006, TFG forces, supported by Ethiopia, initiated an air and ground campaign to recapture towns in south and central Somalia controlled by the CIC. TFG/Ethiopian forces advanced quickly as CIC leaders and fighters retreated first towards Mogadishu and then towards Kismayo, which fell on December 29 and January 1, respectively. The rapid and localized nature of the fighting has minimized population movement to date, with displacement being largely short-term and within districts.
USAID regional advisors based in Nairobi are monitoring the situation and collaborating with partners to address emergency needs of conflict-affected populations. USAID, through the Offices of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and Food for Peace (USAID/FFP), supports 10 implementing partners to carry out emergency humanitarian programs throughout Somalia.
Numbers at a Glance
Source
IDP's from Mogadishu (1) 279,000 UNHCR (2) – July 6, 2007
Additional Population in Need of Assistance 600,000 U.N. CAP (3) – April 2007
Somali Refugees (4) 460,000 UNHCR 2006 Global Trends Report – June 2007
FY 2007 HUMANITARIAN FUNDING PROVIDED TO DATE
Amount
USAID/OFDA Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia: $14,566,828
USAID/FFP (6) Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia: $34,725,600
USAID/OTI (7) Assistance to Somalia: $1,000,000
State/PRM Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia:$3,900,000
USAID and State Humanitarian Assistance to Somalia: $54,192,428
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
On July 17, the U.N. World Food Program (WFP) revised food assistance projections for southern and central Somalia through December 2007. Due to anticipated crop failure in July and August following poor performance of the April to June rainy season, WFP is requesting $19.5 million for 26,500 metric tons (MT) of food aid for approximately 1 million people. USAID’s Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) has provided nearly $9 million in additional funding for emergency food assistance to Somalia, bringing the total to more than $34.7 million to date in FY 2007.
On July 18, the African Union extended the mandate for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) for an additional six months. Approximately 1,600 Ugandan troops have been based in Mogadishu since early March, and additional troops from Burundi are scheduled to arrive in the coming weeks.
CURRENT SITUATION
Humanitarian Access
Insecurity continues to hamper humanitarian relief efforts to displaced persons, host communities, and vulnerable populations throughout southern and central Somalia. In addition, delays from localized flooding, roadblocks, and unpredictable access across the Kenya–Somalia border impede the transport and distribution of relief supplies including emergency food aid.
In late June, insecurity in Mogadishu halted food distributions to 47,000 beneficiaries, and border regulations blocked food assistance intended for 108,000 people in Gedo Region. WFP continues to negotiate for access to complete the scheduled distributions. To date in FY 2007, USAID-supported WFP has delivered food aid to more than 924,000 people in Somalia.
According to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), curfews imposed in several major cities and ports such as Mogadishu and Kismaayo are further hindering humanitarian operations by obstructing access and lengthening the time required to offload relief supplies.
Following repairs to the Waajid airstrip in Bakool Region and a security assessment of Afmadow airstrip in Lower Juba Region, both airfields reopened for humanitarian cargo and personnel flights the week of July 16, according to WFP.
USAID regional advisors based in Nairobi continue to closely monitor humanitarian access and coordinate response efforts with U.N. agencies and implementing partners operating throughout Somalia.
Population Movements
As of July 20, more people are leaving than returning to Mogadishu due to ongoing insecurity in the capital, according to UNHCR. Although nearly 20,000 people have returned since early June, up to 21,000 have left in the same time period, including 10,000 in the past week. In addition, approximately 2,900 people recently evicted from government buildings require assistance. USAID/OFDA partners are responding through the distribution of relief supplies and emergency shelter materials. Partners are also implementing health, nutrition, food security and agriculture, and water, sanitation, and hygiene activities.
In addition to displacement from Mogadishu, approximately 13,000 people are uprooted from inter-clan fighting in and around Kismaayo, Lower Juba Region. Insecurity and official curfews are negatively impacting livelihood opportunities for displaced and resident populations in both areas, according to OCHA. USAID/OFDA is supporting cash-for-work projects and water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions for conflict-affected communities surrounding Kismaayo.
UNHCR has reopened Teferi Ber refugee camp in eastern Ethiopia and began relocating approximately 4,000 Somali refugees from a temporary settlement in Kebribeyah in mid-July. The new arrivals to Teferi Ber have received emergency relief supplies, including blankets, sleeping mats, kitchen sets, water containers, and soap. An estimated 7,000 additional asylum seekers are awaiting processing at various locations along the Ethiopia–Somalia border, according to UNHCR. In response to the new Somali arrivals in Ethiopia, State/PRM has provided $850,000 to UNHCR and $500,000 to non-governmental organizations for refugee assistance programs in Teferi Ber.
USAID and State Humanitarian Assistance
USAID/OFDA emergency relief activities in Somalia benefit more than 2 million people affected by repeated shocks of drought, floods, and conflict. Current USAID/OFDA relief efforts in Somalia total $14.5 million for critical assistance and coordination. To date in FY 2007, USAID/FFP has provided nearly $35 million in food assistance to vulnerable Somalis. USAID/OTI has provided $1 million in FY 2007 to support peacebuilding efforts through the National Reconciliation Congress.
State/PRM is assisting both Somali refugees in the Horn of Africa and Yemen and relief efforts within Somalia through FY 2007 and ongoing FY 2006 funding. To date in FY 2007, State/PRM has provided $7.1 million in earmarked funding for UNHCR’s refugee operations in Kenya, Yemen, Ethiopia, and Somalia, and $2 million to CARE for assistance to Somali refugees in Kenya. State/PRM has also provided $3 million to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) for work with IDPs and conflict victims in Somalia in 2007.
Fear, Greed and Intransigence
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July 21, 2007: The Transitional Government is still trying to hold a reconciliation conference in Mogadishu, but clans native to the city and their Islamic Courts allies refuse to talk until Ethiopian troops withdraw. If that were done, the Islamic Courts would use force to coerce other clans to accept an Islamic dictatorship, or at least leave the local clans in charge of Mogadishu. The greed, readiness to use violence and lack of civic spirit are a curse that has prevented Somalia from forming a government for over a decade.
July 19, 2007: The 1,600 Ugandan peacekeepers have limited themselves to guarding the airport and docks area. There were supposed to be 8,000 peacekeepers, but the other African countries have backed off in the face of the continuing violence. They want a peace to keep, not a violent situation where they have to impose peace. The African Union has agreed to extend its peacekeeping mission to Somalia for another six months. But Nigeria, Burundi, Malawi and Ghana, have delayed sending peacekeepers they have pledged. The excuses tend to revolve around promised military equipment from Western nations not arriving, or training not being completed.
July 18, 2007: The UN is appealing for donors to provide $20 million to buy 25,000 tons of food for starving Somalis. This will take care of needs until the end of the year. However, the usual donor nations are reluctant to give, because so much of the food aid is stolen. Somali pirates are increasingly active, and especially eager to grab ships carrying UN food aid. During the first six months of the year, nearly a million Somalis received food aid.
July 17, 2007: The recent oil exploration deal with a Chinese company is coming undone because not all the main factions in the Transitional Government agree on it. In other words, not all the clan factions are happy with the amount of money they got for the deal.
July 16, 2007: Various factions continue to fight for control of the Bakara market, and merchants are beginning to leave for other parts of the city. The local clans and Islamic Courts are not strong enough to fight the government troops (from clans outside the city) or Ethiopians, so they use human shields from which to fire off a few shots or throw a grenade. The return fire usually hits the civilians, as the perpetrator quickly moves away. The local clans would rather see the Bakara market shut down, than concede control to outsiders. The chaos at the market has caused shortages, and inflation of up to 100 percent for some goods.
Local Traditions Appall Foreigners
July 11, 2007: Ethiopia is stepping up its counter-guerrilla operations in the Ogaden region. The Ethiopian military began increasing its presence in "sensitive areas" of Ogaden after the April 2007 attack on a Chinese-owned oil facility, which killed 74 people. The attackers were from the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Foreign aid workers are appalled that Ethiopian military operations are indiscriminate. They are, and always have been, as the basic tactic in fighting Somalis is to terrorize them enough so they calm down. There have also been a large number of arrests. There is always some trouble in the Ogaden desert. There is friction between ethnic Somalis and the Ethiopian government. There is also friction between semi-nomadic tribes and sedentary tribes. However, the attack on the Chinese drilling project was just too big to ignore. Nine Chinese citizens died in the battle. The attack was also clearly intended to discourage economic investment in the Ogaden, at least as long as Ethiopia controls it. Ethiopia had to respond.
July 5, 2007: Eritrea said that it had begun training a new group of draftees for service in the Eritrean military. Eritrea conducts an "annual draft." Part of its national strategy is to create a "nation in arms." During the Ethiopia-Eritrea War, Eritrean politicians bragged that in Eritrea "everyone fights." Eritrea's high degree of mobilization was necessary because Ethiopia has a much larger population.
July 2, 2007: Eritrea ridiculed Ethiopia's recent statement that Ethiopia is "considering an invasion" of Eritrea. Eritrea also criticized Ethiopia's counter-insurgency operations in the Ogaden region. Eritrea denies that it aids the ONLF. However, it does.
June 29, 2007 Ethiopia's prime minister declared that Ethiopia is "ready" for war with Eritrea. This was an escalation in Ethiopia's war rhetoric.
July 15, 2007: About 60 percent of the 1,325 delegates (clan elders and warlords) have arrived in Mogadishu for peace talks.
Battling For Bucks In The Bakara
July 14, 2007: In response to the reconciliation conference being held in Mogadishu tomorrow, pro-Islamic Courts clans will hold a competing conference in Eritrea. As part of its war with Ethiopia, Eritrea is providing support for clan factions belonging to the Islamic Courts. While Eritrea says it will not support al Qaeda, these Islamic terrorists are tightly allied with the Islamic Courts. Both the Islamic Courts and al Qaeda have threatened to attack the peace conference in Mogadishu. The Ugandan peacekeepers in Mogadishu are acting in a purely defensive manner, and other African nations are reluctant to send their troops in until there's a peace to keep.
July 13, 2007: The battle for the Bakara market in Mogadishu continues, leaving several dead and over a dozen wounded each day. If the local clans lose control of the market, they will suffer a major financial loss. Thus the local clans are fighting hard, and don't care if they interrupt foreign aid groups from bringing in food and medical care.
July 12, 2007: A Chinese oil company (CNOOC, owned by the Chinese government) has made a deal with the Transitional Government, to explore for oil off the Somali coast. These kinds of deals have been made twice before, but have not been carried out because of the banditry on land and piracy at sea. The Transitional Government had to meet in Kenya to negotiate this deal, and will have to
pacify Somalia before the deal can be carried out.
July 10, 2007: While fighting between clans has killed about 250 people a month during the first half of the year, attempts to flee across the water to Yemen has killed another 60 a month. That's twice the rate of last year, when some 29,000 Somalis and Ethiopians made it to Yemen from ports in northern Somalia. Many end up in refugee camps, while the rest try to continue north into Saudi Arabia and beyond. So far this year, about 9,000 have made it to Yemen.
July 9, 2007: In Mogadishu, fighting continues in the largest market, the Bakara. There, members of local clans and Islamic Courts throw grenades at soldiers taking control of the market. The troops open fire, killing mostly civilians, whom the grenade throwers hide among.
July 8, 2007: The Mogadishu clans, which used to control the major ports and markets, are fighting for their economic lives. The Transitional Government is controlled by clans from outside Mogadishu, and is moving to control the main sources of income in Mogadishu (merchants pay "protection" to the clan-in-charge). This searches for weapons and terrorists has closed the city's largest market (the Bakara). The Transitional Government is being helped by Ethiopian and, to a lesser extent, AU (African Union) peacekeepers. The Mogadishu clans are fighting for their economic life, and have remained allied with the Islamic Courts members from outside the city. The Islamic Courts has adherents throughout Somalia, and has split many clans. Some warlords and clan leaders side with the Islamic Courts, and some don't.
July 7, 2007: Troops are moving outside Mogadishu and removing clan roadblocks, that charged all traffic a fee to get past. These checkpoints are a major source of income for the members of many clans. But the armed men manning the checkpoints will often beat or kill people who do not give up enough cash or other goods.
Too Dangerous For Peacekeepers
July 6, 2007: Government calls for a full force of 20,000 peacekeepers are being resisted by the African Union and the UN. Neither organization wants to put troops into the middle of the interminable clan warfare. The government has been told to pacify unruly elements before peacekeepers are sent in, but the government insists it needs peacekeepers to do this. Somalia has been in this unruly state for centuries.
July 3, 2007: Clan based gangs continue to attack government, Ethiopian and EU troops. The attacks are mostly at night, or via roadside bombs. The attacks are not having much effect, except that they are hindering aid efforts. Some NGOs have had to shut down operations temporarily when the local violence (from clan disputes or banditry) made it too dangerous. The roadside bombs are poorly made and used, and are not inflicting many casualties.
July 1, 2007: A South Korean cargo ship was seized by pirates off the coast. This makes five ships being held by pirates. It usually takes about a month for ransom to be negotiated and paid. So far this year, there have been fifteen pirate attacks, compared to ten for all of last year.
June 30, 2007: In the southwest, clan fighting (over water) left seven dead and many more wounded.
Oppressed Bandits Strike Back
June 28, 2007: So far this month, about 3,000 people have fled the violence in Mogadishu. That's far less than the 400,000 who fled the major fighting in February-April. Since then, about 120,000 of those refugees have returned. The terror campaign in Mogadishu mainly consists of throwing hand grenades into markets or commercial buildings, or firing a pistol or assault rifle and fleeing. There have been a few roadside bombs. The local terrorists are inspired by what al Qaeda is believed to be doing in Baghdad. But the Somali terrorists don't have access to the large amounts of explosives, weapons, cash and technical expertise available in Iraq. So the terrorism in Mogadishu is much less frequent, and not nearly as deadly. In one respect, the two situations are similar. The Islamic Courts terrorists are receiving support from clans that lost out (on monopolies and criminal activities shut down) when the Transitional Government and Ethiopian troops showed up. It's mainly about money. The government believes that the terrorism can be stopped if the rest of the AU peacekeepers were sent. But the African countries who pledged the additional 6,000 peacekeepers are backing off, claiming that no one (like the United States) has provided money for needed equipment, supplies and transportation. The Somali government has also asked that Western counter-terrorism forces in Djibouti be sent in as well. Some of these troops, or at least small teams of commandos, have been in Somalia, but unofficially and for short periods. The main problem is that Somalia appears as chaotic and hostile as ever, and no one really wants to get involved with this.
June 27, 2007: Islamic Courts death squads have made several attacks on members of the Transitional Government and parliament. Most of these attacks have failed, but indicate an attempt to terrorize government officials into negotiating with the Islamic Courts. So far, this isn't working either.
June 24, 2007: Everyone is unhappy with Kenya, which has closed its border, in response to the fighting in Somalia, since last January. Now UN food aid trucks are being stopped as well. Nearly 300 trucks, carrying 8,500 tons of free food aid, are stuck at the border. This not only upsets the hungry Somalis and relief groups, but also the warlords that maintain over 200 roadblocks throughout southern Somalia. At each of these roadblocks, trucks have to pay a fee to pass. No trucks, no payoffs. The warlords are not happy with this lack of traffic. In some parts of the country, hungry people are storming relief centers. In Mogadishu, this led to security guards firing on the crowds, killing five people. The clans, which often operate like bandits, are fighting each other over dwindling resources.
June 23, 2007: The government declared a nightly curfew for the city. In the last week, at least ten people have been killed in terrorist attacks. This is not a lot by normal Mogadishu standards, but now the attacks are directed at government officials and soldiers, not merchants and shoppers, as is usually the case. Moreover, there's now more foreign media in the city, to record each attack and declare it the harbinger of a major terrorism campaign.
June 22, 2007: In Kismayo, the second largest port in the country, rival clans fought to see who would control the docks area, and collecting fees for ships and trucks using that area. At least fifteen have been killed so far. The port is a major source of revenue for whoever controls it. The two clans are loyal to the government. Technically, many of those fighting at government troops. But, long term, the port revenue is more important. There is similar fighting in Baidoa, and other smaller towns.
Peace Offer Rejected
June 25, 2007: Two Somali clans in Ethiopia's Ogaden desert region have been engaged in a shooting war for the better part of a week. At least five people have been killed.
June 21, 2007: The European Union's parliament hit Ethiopia with a tough resolution addressing Ethiopian human rights abuses. Chief on the EU agenda was the detention of 38 political opposition leaders by the Ethiopian government. The 38 leaders were recently convicted of treason by an Ethiopian court and some of the convicted may face death sentences. The EU described the opposition leaders as political prisoners. The EU resolution also targeted Cuba and Burma for human rights violations and lack of political freedom.
June 16, 2007: Ethiopia told the UN that it was ready to return the disputed town of Badme to Eritrea without "preconditions." Eritrea responded by saying that Ethiopia had actually set "preconditions" by demanding that Eritrea have a "dialog" with Ethiopia and live up to a ceasefire agreement. Ethiopia said that its letter had been misinterpreted. Just another round of accusation and counter-accusation? Probably, but diplomats in the region note that the bad relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea could lead to another war with Badme the center of it. During the Ethiopia-Eritrea War is was the scene of many ferocious battles.
Al Qaeda Forms New Group
June 21, 2007: NATO has agreed to provide air transport for African Union peacekeepers in Somalia. Meanwhile, Ethiopian troops have succeeded in seizing thousands of weapons in neighborhoods containing anti-government populations (clans that believe the government is trying to reduce clan power.) The government has not been able to get the clans to even begin negotiating a peace deal. Apparently the anti-government clans are waiting to see if the African Union sends the full peacekeeping force (8,000 troops), and if someone gives Ethiopia money so Ethiopian troops can stay in Somalia. If all those foreign troops arrive, the clans will negotiate. Otherwise, the clans believe they can win the traditional Somali way, with force.
June 20, 2007: Al Qaeda has organized about a hundred Islamic Courts fighters into Shabbab, a new terrorist organization that is responsible for the attacks of the last few months. Also called the Mujahideen Youth Movement, Shabbab is long on fanaticism, but short on skills. The bombs are poorly made and the suicide bombers not well prepared for their work. Some Shabbab members attack government officials or troops with firearms and grenades, but these attacks often fail as well. Compared to the other armed groups in Somalia, Shabbab is not a major player. A lot of the violence in Mogadishu is related to gangs feuding over money and territory. It's often difficult to tell what is the work of Islamic terrorists, or of the more common criminal ones.
No change in the piracy situation. Maritime insurance companies still list Somalia as the highest level risk in the world, and warn ships to stay 400 kilometers from the coast. But fishing boats still come in close, to go after the relatively abundant fish. The UN is having a hard time getting ships willing to carry food into Somali ports. Some foreign government are working with the Somali government to take out the coastal towns that host the three or four known pirate organizations via attacks from the land side.
June 19, 2007: On the Kenyan border, a suspected Islamic terrorist was killed by Kenyan police. The Kenyans are looking for Islamic terrorists along the border, and in the capital, Nairobi, to see if the terrorists are planning more attacks in Kenya. At present, criminal gangs are setting off bombs in Nairobi, as part of a campaign to intimidate the government. But no one is taking credit for some of the attacks, and the police want to be sure these are not the work of Somali Islamic terrorists. In Mogadishu, the government offered amnesty to Islamic terrorists, hoping that some would accept, and thus weaken groups like Shabbab.
June 18, 2007: A bomb went off in the capital, killing two bystanders. The Islamic Courts terrorists are trying to get a terror campaign going, but they don't have the skilled team leaders to make it happen. Most of the bombing attacks are poorly planned, miss their target, and kill civilians instead. As a result, civilians, even those who would normally back the Islamic Courts, have turned on the terrorists, providing the police, Ugandan peacekeepers and Ethiopian troops with tips on where the killers are.
June 17, 2007: There are several terrorists operating in Baidoa. The favorite weapon is the hand grenade. The terrorists toss the grenade into a a crowd, or building, and, so far, get away undetected. This is typical Somali tactics, whether it is in support of Islamic radicals or some gangster warlord running an extortion scam.
June 16, 2007: The Ugandan peacekeepers in Mogadishu brought a medical detachment with them, and they set up a clinic. The medical personnel have been overwhelmed, because the various warring factions in the city have destroyed nearly all the other medical facilities. The Ugandan clinic remains in operation because it is guarded by Ugandan troops, but it is out of supplies because of the large number of civilians it has been treating (300 a day). To the south, a hundred Kenyan security forces have crossed the border, seeking the killers (last week) of two Kenyan policemen.
Persistent Pirates Prevail
June 15, 2007: There are five pirate gangs operating along the coast, and they have seized ten ships so far this year, and attacked about twice as many. This is double the rate during last year. Ransoms can be as high as $2.5 million per ship, but are usually a few hundred thousand dollars. That's big money in this part of the world, and pays for dozens of speedboats full of AK-47 and RPG toting pirates equipped with GPS locators and satellite phones. Shipping and insurance companies are calling for foreign navies to enter Somali waters and kill the pirates, who sometimes even attack ships carrying UN food aid. So far, no foreign navy has stepped forward to take on the task, which would involve some fighting in the coastal villages where the pirates have their bases. It's also likely that the pirates would threaten to kill some of the 30 sailors they hold hostage, as a way to get a foreign navy to back off. Few admirals want to deal with that kind of bad publicity.
June 14, 2007: In Baidoa, Islamic terrorists tossed a grenade into a crowd of people watching a video of an Indian movie. Four were killed and six wounded. Such entertainments are considered sinful by the Islamic conservatives who formed the Islamic Courts. No longer strong enough to confront people openly, the Islamic radicals are now resorting to terror tactics against sinful civilians.
June 13, 2007: In Mogadishu, clan militiamen angry over lost power (and money), have been sniping at Ethiopian bases and check points at night. Day attacks are much riskier, because if the Ethiopians find out where you are hiding, they will tear down the entire neighborhood. Islamic terrorists continue to attempt suicide attacks against government leaders and Ethiopian troops. But the local terrorists have not quite gotten the hang of it yet, and most of the attacks are failing.
June 12, 2007: Police seized a car full of explosives headed for the capital. Suspicious civilians tipped off the cops. The Islamic terrorist bombing campaign is not popular with most Somalis, because most of the casualties are innocent bystanders.
June 11, 2007: The Hawiye clan, which is the most powerful in Mogadishu, has refused to attend a peace conference. The Hawiye clan had joined the Islamic Courts, because the Islamic group had promised that most Hawiye economic assets (especially monopolies and trading advantages) would not be messed with. Such is not the case with the new government, and the Hawiye clan is not happy. The Hawiye see their traditional rivals, the Darod, as trying to move in, especially since the president of the Transitional Government is a Darod.
June 10, 2007: Police in the capital arrested sixteen Islamic Courts terrorists, and seized large quantities of weapons and bomb making material.
June 9, 2007: Eritrea is hosting a rival Somali government, composed of representatives from the Islamic Courts, a few (of dozens) clans that oppose the current coalition government. and Somali separatists from Ethiopia (Ogaden). Eritrea is doing this mainly because of a border dispute (over a patch of desert) with Ethiopia. Politics gets very petty and vindictive in this part of the world, as it does everywhere else.
The War on Islam
June 10, 2007: In the wake of an attack on an oil exploration operation in Ogaden two months ago, the army has gathered troops in the area and launched a sweep in areas where the rebels are known to hang out. The Ogaden region of southern Ethiopia has long been claimed by Somalia, and its inhabitants are largely Somali. But by holding the Ogaden, Somali raiders are kept away from the ethnic Ethiopian population to the north. Meanwhile, Ethiopia is asking the UN for some money to help defray the costs of Ethiopian peacekeeping operations in Somalia. This will be difficult, as the Moslem countries will protest that Christian Ethiopia is now part of the war on Islam.June 9, 2007: A bandit (or pirate) group operating in the Red Sea off the coast of Eritrea continues to hold a large Egyptian fishing boat and 23 Egyptian fishermen. The bandits took control of the boat on June 2. The ship was fired on by "gunmen" and forced into Eritrean territorial waters. Pirates operate along the Red Sea coasts of Sudan, Eritrea, Yemen, and Somalia. Fisherman are frequent targets, but larger vessels are sometimes attacked. The fisherman are usually robbed. However, occasionally ransoms for the crews are demanded.
June 8, 2007: The rhetorical war continues. A former member of the Islamic Courts government in Somalia accused Ethiopia of being an "occupying power" in Somalia. The Islamic Courts and the Eritrean government demanded that Ethiopia leave Somalia. Ethiopia ignored the suggestion. Eritrea is once again trying to put together an anti-Ethiopian coalition in Somalia. There has been a lot of bluster on the part of the Eritreans and Islamic Courts, but they too face the problem of Somalia's "clan-based" society. The dissidents know they oppose Ethiopia but don't necessarily share other objectives. A Somali Islamist group has also accused Ethiopia of sending Somali troops to Ethiopia—with the aim of enlisting Somalia in a war against Eritrea. Ethiopia has been training Somali forces and it is entirely possible that some Somalis are being trained in Ethiopia. However, at the moment the Somali transitional national government's weak military forces would add little to another Ethiopian-Eritrean war, so the accusation sounds like another propaganda charge.
June 5, 2007: Ethiopia's prime minister flew to Mogadishu, Somalia, and met with Ethiopian troops serving in Somalia.
June 4, 2007: An Ethiopian machinegun crew shot and killed would-be suicide terrorist bomber in Mogadishu. The terrorist's explosives-packed car blew up after the Ethiopians' fire struck the vehicle. One civilian was injured by the blast.
June 3, 2007: Ethiopia hosted the president of the Somaliland Republic, one of the "separatist statelets" within Somalia. The Somaliland Republic declared independence from Somalia in May 1991. No nation officially recognizes the Somaliland Republic's independence, but the statelet has "offices" (de facto embassies) in Ethiopia, South Africa, and Ghana.
May 31, 2007: Eritrea issued a statement that said the world needs to "pressure" Ethiopia to accept the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission's (EEBC) ruling that gave Eritrea part of the Badme region. The Eritrean statement noted that the Boundary Commission's ruling was supposed to be "final and binding" but Ethiopia had violated the agreement. In this case, Eritrea is right on the facts.
May 28, 2007: The Ethiopian government claimed that the Ogaden National Liberation Movement (ONLF) detonated a bomb which killed five people. The attack took place in Ethiopia's Ogaden region. The ONLF denied that it was involved in the bombing incident. The Ogaden is a predominantly ethnic Somali area.
Big Deal In Somalia
May 28, 2007: After thirty years, Ethiopia reopened its embassy in Mogadishu, Somalia. The only other foreign embassy in Mogadishu is the British one. However, British diplomatic personnel have been withdrawn from this embassy, because of the violence in the city. So the Ethiopian embassy opening is a big deal, as it is an attempt to restore diplomatic relations with a Somali government. May 23, 2007: Eritrea has become a meeting place for an entire range of Ethiopian opposition organizations and dissidents. It is also attracting dissidents from other nations in the region. For example, over 40 former members of Somalia's now-defunct Islamic Courts-led government are allegedly in Eritrea. The ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front. an anti-Ethiopian group) has a contingent inside Eritrea. The ONLF is fairly open about its operation. However, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity front (ARDUF) remains obscure. Ethiopia contends that ARDUF took part in the kidnapping of several tourists and Ethiopians in Afar in March 2007. After the kidnapping took place, Ethiopia also suggested that Eritrea was involved, though Eritrea denied it. Ethiopia and Eritrea are locked in a slow war and it is common practice to finance and encourage the enemy's internal opponents.
May 16, 2007: Ethiopia said that it intends to withdraw its troops from Somalia as soon as African Union peacekeepers are in place. Originally, Ethiopia planned to withdraw most of its troops from Somalia by the end of March. That obviously didn't happen, though at least half of Ethiopia's invasion force has been pulled out of Mogadishu.. Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was quoted as saying that "Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu will withdraw when the African Union peacekeepers arrive to support Ugandan forces…"
May 10, 2007: Ethiopia said that the UN had failed to hold Eritrea accountable for "undermining" the peace agreement and border determination deal. Specifically, Ethiopia said that the UN had not penalized Eritrea for failing to "cease hostilities." There is a lot of "half truth" and a little falsehood in Ethiopia's statement. The peace agreement was signed in June 2000 (Algiers agreement). In 2002 the boundary commission decided that Eritrea should receive the hotly disputed territory around the town of Badme. Ethiopia had agreed to live by the boundary commission's decision, but reneged. To say the situation turned tense is putting it mildly. During the Ethiopia-Eritrea border war of 1998-2000, at least 70,000 people died.
UN Peace Making Goes Nowhere
May 8, 2007: The UN admits that its attempt to negotiate a peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea has failed, but that the UN will keep trying.
May 5, 2007: The European Union (EU) intends to launch a diplomatic initiative that will "strengthen" the EU's relationship with Eritrea. Don't read this as a move to counter Ethiopia. At the moment Eritrea is something of a "loner" state. The EU wants to discuss development issues, which means the EU is offering money. The flip side of offering money is asking for concessions. The EU is looking to broker a peace deal, first in Somalia and then between Eritrea and Ethiopia. It may take awhile.
May 2, 2007: Eritrea jailed 80 people described as "evangelical Christians" belonging to a Presbyterian congregation in the capital. Two US citizens were reportedly arrested but released after being held for several days. The Eritrean government portrayed the arrests as part of a policy to restrict "unregistered religious worship" in Eritrea. The Eritrean government instituted the policy in 2002. Eritrea is a nation is about evenly split between Christians and Muslims. Eritrea is also an ally of the Islamic Courts in Somalia, which is a radical Muslim group. This means the Eritrean government is very careful about religious groups. The government is suspicious of some denominations which they believe may upset the religious balance. Eritrea has also been accused by numerous religious and rights groups of persecuting minority religious sects.
April 29, 2007: Ogaden National Liberation Front rebels released seven Chinese workers and two Africans. The hostages were taken after an attack on a Chinese oil facility on April 24.
Islamic Terrorists Step Up and Get Hit
June 8, 2007: An American destroyer used a cruise missile (not gun fire) to hit a house occupied by al Qaeda members in northern Somalia (Puntland) last week. At least a dozen al Qaeda members were in the house, six of them foreigners. Two Somalis survived the explosion. Puntland troops and U.S. Special Forces arrived on the scene quickly to examine the scene. The six dead foreigners were from the U.S., Britain, Sweden, Morocco, Pakistan and Yemen.
June 7, 2007: The U.S. revealed that one of the foreign terrorists seized in Somalia recently was a courier and liaison between al Qaeda operations in Somalia and Pakistan.
June 6, 2007: The government shut down three radio stations for broadcasting material supporting the Islamic courts and Islamic radicalism.
June 5, 2007: The prime minister of Ethiopia arrived unexpectedly, for a visit to the capital. Ethiopia wants to get its troops out of Somalia, but will not do so until the rest of the 8,000 man peacekeeping force arrives. So far, only about 20 percent of the peacekeepers have shown up. Today, Ethiopian troops began going house to house searching for weapons and suicide bomb making equipment. The Islamic Courts have been hiding, putting all their energy into terror attacks. Ethiopian troops have also shut down the arms markets in Mogadishu and other towns. Large caches of weapons and ammo have been seized. This won't eliminate the arms trade in Somalia, but it certainly puts a dent in it. Somalia has been under a UN arms embargo for over a decade, but that has not stopped gunrunners from moving stuff in by sea and air.
June 4, 2007: Ethiopian troops fired on a car speeding towards their base. As they suspected, it was a suicide bomber, and the car exploded before getting close enough to damage the base. Elsewhere in the capital, shooting incidents left at least six dead. Meanwhile, pirates killed a sailor from the crew of a ship they seized three weeks ago. This was apparently done to speed up negotiations with the ships owner.
June 3, 2007: A suicide bomber tried to kill the prime minister, but missed and killed himself and four bystanders.
June 2, 2007: A Danish ship was seized off the coast. An American warship showed up after the pirates got aboard. U.S. gunfire destroyed the three pirate speed boats, but the pirates then forced the Danish crew to move their ship into Somali territorial waters, where the American ship could not follow.
U.S. Warship Bombards Islamic Terrorists
June 2, 2007: A month since the ceasefire in Mogadishu, about a quarter of the 400,000 people who fled, have returned. Many do not want to return because they belong to clans that still have Islamic radical gunmen hiding out in Mogadishu. These gunmen would force their fellow clan members to hide and support them, which could get very dangerous when the shooting starts. At least a few dozen Islamic terrorists are still operating in Mogadishu, carrying out five or six attacks a week. These involve roadside bombs, hand grenades or firearms. The guys with the mortar were apparently killed during the April fighting. Many men from the clan clans native to Mogadishu rule the presence of outsiders, be they Somalis or Ethiopians. But most of these guys are holding their fire, because they fear retribution against the neighborhoods they live in. Everyone is hoping that the rest of the 8,000 African Union peacekeepers will show up, and catch the few Islamic terrorists still operating in the country.
June 1, 2007: In Puntland, two boatloads of Islamic terrorists, most of them non-Somali, landed near a small village a few days ago. When security forces confronted them today, there was gunfire, and about 30 Islamic terrorists fled into the bush. An American destroyer arrived shortly thereafter, and bombarded the suspected location of the terrorists, with its 127mm gun. The two boats were believed to have come from a jungle area near the Kenyan border, where many Islamic terrorists had fled to in April, after being chased out of Mogadishu. Apparently, there are some U.S. SOCOM (Special Operations) troops in the area, because someone has to call in the naval gun fire.
May 31, 2007: In the southern port of Kismayu, 800 local clan gunmen, who had been hired as security guards by the government last year, seized the port to protest the failure of the
government to pay them. Clan elders negotiated with the gunmen, and got them to withdraw.
May 30, 2007: About 300 kilometers north of Mogadishu, a roadside bomb wounded five Ethiopian soldiers, and the subsequent fire fight left four civilians dead. A senior government intelligence officials was assassinated near his home.
May 29, 2007: After 26 days of negotiations, an Arab cargo ship and 16 crewmen were released on the payment f $100,000 ransom. The pirates had wanted $150,000. Another group of pirates is trying to get $700,000 for two South Korean fishing boats. This is big money in Somalia, and encourages more piracy. In Mogadishu, a judge was murdered by a gunman, while a policeman was killed during a fight with Islamic terrorists.
May 28, 2007: Islamic terrorists threw two grenades at Ethiopian troops, killing two civilians.
May 26, 2007: Pirates seized a small Indian ship (a dhow type) off the port of Mogadishu. Somali Islamic terrorists have produced and distributed their first suicide bomber video. It shows the bomber declaring it dedication to the cause, then driving a vehicle off into the distance in northern Mogadishu. The vehicle explodes, as the voice over praises the bomber. In Mogadishu, a roadside bomb went off, leaving two civilians dead.
May 25, 2007: Puntland, a breakaway state in northern Somalia, got the Egyptian government to pay a large "fine" to obtain the release of 68 Egyptian fishermen seized working off the coast of Puntland. While Puntland is able to find and arrest Egyptian fishing boats off its coast, such is not the case with the boats that carry over a thousand illegal migrants to Yemen each day. The groups running these boats pay off the right people, thus the Puntland government insists it can do nothing to stop them.
Do Nothing, and Be Quiet About It
May 24, 2007: Ethiopian commanders estimate they killed up to 300 gunmen in March and 600 in April during fighting in Mogadishu. Some 150 gunmen were taken prisoner, including some they describe as foreign Islamic terrorists. In the wake of the April 26 ceasefire, the government wants to hold a peace conference next month, but it having trouble raising the $7.5 million needed to pay for all the facilities and goodies. Donor nations are rather discouraged about all things Somali. The Islamic Courts will be at the conference, sort of. Some clans can send Islamic Courts members as clan representatives. Meanwhile, the Islamic Courts are apparently conducting a campaign of terror attacks using roadside bombs and assassins.
May 23, 2007: A freelance TV crew was released by police in Mogadishu, after being held for six weeks, and brought before a judge to explain themselves. The three man crew was arrested at the airport, on suspicion of being terrorist sympathizers.
May 22, 2007: There is a disagreement over how many people fled Mogadishu in the last two months because of the fighting. The UN says it was 400,000, and is trying to raise money to take care of that many. Ethiopia, whose troops did most of the fighting, estimates there were only 80,000 refugees. The Somali Transitional Government, which governs, sort of, Mogadishu, says there were only 40,000 refugees. Since most of those who fled the fighting went to live with kin outside the city, there are no large refugee camps where one can get an accurate count. The U.S. Navy issued a warning to ships, to stay away from the Somali coast because of the pirate danger.
May 21, 2007: The UN has suspended food shipments, by ship, to Somalia, in an effort to force the U.S. Navy to take action against the pirates. The UN hasn't come right out and demanded that American warships intervene, but the Americans are the only ones with the capabilities and will. Some other European navies have warships in the area, but they are even less likely to get involved. The media would be all over any operations against the pirates, and the sailors risk getting accused of killing innocent civilians. Most nations are risk averse when it comes to
Somalia, thus the safest thing to do is nothing, and be quiet about it as well.
May 20, 2007: A roadside bomb, apparently intended for the mayor of Mogadishu, exploded prematurely, and killed two bystanders instead. In Kismayo, one of the UN guards who was sent out in boats yesterday to fight pirates trying to take a food ship, died of his wounds.
May 19, 2007: A ship that just delivered food aid to the southern port of Kismayo, was attacked pirates as it headed south again. The ship escaped the pirates, with the help of two boatloads of local gunmen hired to protect aid ships, but the incident was noted by shipping companies that move food aid into Somalia for the UN. There have been eight pirate attacks so far this year, compared to ten last year, and 35 in 2005.
May 18, 2007: Uganda plans to withdraw its 1,600 peacekeepers in September. They withdraw sooner, as the African Union has not been able to raise enough money to keep the Ugandans in Somalia through the Summer. In Uganda, the Somalia operation is unpopular, not just because the peacekeepers are being attacked, but because the other African nations that said they would send peacekeepers, have not done do.
Warlord Heaven
May 17, 2007: The UN is trying to provide food and medical aid to about a million refugees inside Somalia. Nearly 400,000 of them are the result of the recent fighting in Mogadishu. The United States has provided most of the money for this effort, with over $129 million coming from America in the past two years. There seems no end in sight to the violence and lawlessness. The basic problem is that the clan leaders will not submit to a national government, and are more inclined to use guns, rather than negotiation, to settle disputes. The place is kind of a warlord heaven, and hell for everyone else.
May 16, 2007: In Mogadishu, a roadside bomb killed four Ugandan peacekeepers, and a nearby civilian.
May 15, 2007: In Puntland, the two UN kidnapped UN officials were released, after payment of a ransom. The UN staff are normally safe from this sort of thing because of regular payoffs to the various clan leaders. But sometimes, a local warlord will feel slighted, and look for ways to get more money. Meanwhile. two more ships were attacked off the coast. Two South Korean fishing boats, traveling to Kenya, were seized some 300 kilometers off the coast. Two dozen sailors were taken hostage, along with the two boats. The pirates are apparently operating from a mother ship, far off the coast, where most ship traffic now is, in an attempt to avoid the pirates.
May 14, 2007: For the fifth time in the last two months, a merchant ship was attacked off the coast. A speedboat, operating over 300 kilometers from the coast, attacked a cargo ship traveling from Qatar to South Africa, managed to escape, after suffering machine-gun and RPG fire.
May 13, 2007: Ethiopia will withdraw its troops (several thousand) when the full AU peacekeeping force of 8,000 is in place.
May 12, 2007: Several days of fighting over land disputes in the south, left at least ten dead, and dozens wounded. With no courts to settle these disputes, the clans use their armed militias to
work things out the traditional way.
May 11, 2007: Islamic radicals are still active, although they do not openly attack those they believe are not sufficiently religious. Video stores have been shot at and bombed in the south, but no one takes credit for it.
May 9, 2007: In Puntland, up north, a local clan leaders gang kidnapped two UN officials, and are holding them for ransom.
May 4, 2007: Just after a senior UN official arrived in Mogadishu, to inspect relief efforts, a bomb went off at the airport, killing three security personnel. The UN official did not, as planned, stay overnight, but left at the end of the day.